Ralph Wiggum

How r u that confident the NA fizzles Dec 5 when we dont know where we are headed 180 hours out? Could go either way. I guess if u look at the 384 ens and weeklies there is support for what you are saying and heck it may be accurate. But that is conjecture at this point....we've seen this LR thing do a 180 as recently as the NAO development which wasn't even supposed to occur just 240 hours ago.

Seems that since the HH run a few evenings ago when this thread was brimming with confidence irt the LR -EPO/-AO/-NAO trifecta looks things have become more muted in the LR especially in the AO/NAO regions on some guidance as the PAC is taking on the dominant player look and is trying to show signs of running the show as early as day 8. As usual, grain of salt past 240. But we can see the NAO goes negative as early as Sunday but around the same the time or soon after, the EPO ridge is beginning to try and flex which is the new player on the field emerging. With that said, where we were once seeing the NAO establish and bleed into the AO the pulsing EPO appears to dampen out any HP over the pole while the NAO slowly fades. You can also see on the ens how the EPO starts a bit west and in turn pumps a SE and even an argument for a S Central ridge before migrating towards the west coast (hopefully but again that is post 240). Like someone said, it is refreshing to see a 50/50 pop now and then so with an EPO ridge and no NAO it has that transient quick-hitter kind of look thump to you know what sorta flow if that pattern held during early climo. So not a total fail nor a total victory sort of pattern coming up. Just one where caution is still urged and I'm not sure anyone knows where this is going to head in Dec right now. Thanksgiving week as stated is going to be a transitional week....it is either a reload as the pattern relaxes and resets or a complete reshuffle of the deck where we start seeing the PaC play bully and push the Atl around as has been so common in recent years. (Attached are the EpS and GEFS day 10....big diffs at HL. FWIW the GEPS is more like the EPS in keeping the NAO neutral/neg.)

How Dietz Nuts taste? Are they delicious?

It was noted yesterday on some of the ens that those looks.may have legs as you could see some of the transition by days 8ish. So I'm with you and when u r optimistic that's not a bad thing. Just urging caution for some on any specific surface solutions at 384hrs+ lol.

I feel like with the flip of a switch many posters are back to looking past 240 hours and getting their hopes up. And based on a HH op run at that. I admittedly took a peek but I urge optimistic caution lest we forget last winter.

I was just looking at the LR GFS from 18z just for kicks and noted how convoluted of a pattern is appeared with a massive positive SD anomaly over the Aleutians and a fairly crud PAC BUT up top and the N Atl actually allows for workable conditions. Might be venturing into a season where we see some crud looks yet miraculously they deliver? We can hope anyway and tbh I wouldnt be surprised. We are sort of due even tho I realize that isnt how science works.

Geez, gorgeous GEFS runs at 6z and seeing some repeating themes. Noteworthy items...WAR which seems to always be a feature these days instead of locking in or feeding the SE ridge like last year appears to be more of a player in feeding the NAO ridge. Ridge N of Hawaii doesnt lock in destroying the ML Pac flow but rather appears to help pump and feed the EPO ridge down the road. AO goes bonkers negative and appears to hang in for the extended. Lower heights under the region as December approaches. CPF trying to set up. Split flow out West continues. Aleutian low does reload briefly but appears to setup again later on. There isnt anything not to like at this time tbh. I wouldnt call it a unicorn/epic or any of those terms but if verbatim is pretty much almost exactly what we would want to see moving forward. Of course some of this IS past 240 so grain of salt as always but even by day 8ish you can see the pattern reloading and key features trying ti redevelop so it may not be too far off in some of the ideas. I am especially intrigued by the base pattern that is slowly starting to show itself across all ens families. Getting there slowly but surely. Let's get thru next week because as I mentioned a few times, that seems to be the transitional week with a reloading or changing of the pattern. Want to see how we come out of that before celebrating any premature victories for the region(s).

"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High." Source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation&ved=2ahUKEwiVpf_FgfblAhWDdN8KHSCAAQAQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0GhwXcCwaPNo9xghqVw1lN Obviously I would be more inclined to side with CPC and how they determine the NAO but I found that wiki article contradictory of what the CPC uses to measure. It seems odd that two of the big oscillation patterns would be gauged on 2 different atmospheric levels....apples to apples sort of thing.

Is it correct that the AO and NAO phases are actually based on surface pressures more than 500mb/geopotential heights?

But I heard November snows in Iran yield a mild rest of the winter there....kiss of death sorta thing

Taking a beating is an understatement. But a SSWE is extremely volatile and unpredictable. Could throw the entire trop into one hostile mess which is anyone's guess which areas that could potentially favor. I guess it is better than one massive stacked SPV/TPV combo over Santa's hometown but I take these SSWE's with a grain of salt. Sometimes they work out beautifully for us but more often then not it lays an egg.

Typical pattern change/reload/transition look. That is no doubt coming....most ens show this at least starting by day 10. Some bring the current looks back, some flip it.....certainly .mixed signals. Should have some idea about where Dec may head on or around Thanksgiving. I do like some of the recurring themes we have seen most of the fall. Doesnt mean they will hold as a background state this winter though. Lots to be answered.

6z GEFS looks good thru 240 still imo given calendar date. PAC looks to want to reload towards the end of that period. NAO ridging is evident both surface and 500mb with some hp ridging beginning to develop late in that period N of Alaska. Whether right or wrong looks like avg mid/late Nov weather to me at worst thru 240 with a balance of positives in both the Atl and Pac sides. If you want to sneak peek past that period which isnt usually the wisest thing, the 5-day averages on the GEFS increase AO ridging, still have signs of ridging in the NAO, squash the SE ridge that briefly flexed, and has BN 2m temps for the area. While some negatives appear briefly the general themes we have seen look to continue. I can certainly see a reload in the pattern for a short period but I also do not see anything earth shattering that says to cancel winter while it is still late autumn. If someone pressed me and said find something that could be of concern I would say we need to see how the ridge N of Hawaii plays out and what effect it might have on LP near the Aleutians. On the Atl side I would say lets see if the hint of a SE ridge links up as a full/mid lat ridge (like early Oct when we had record heat as the pattern reloaded) and/or how transient/stubborn that ridge becomes. Steady as she goes next 10 days.

Last I checked it was November 17....and still autumn.

Pattern next 10 days on all ens look decent to me with an NAO ridge closing off, broad US trof which yes is slowly repositioning farther west but the broad look works, closed piece of the PV N of the GL. I guess it is after day 10 that has people concerned but I wouldnt lose sleep over it in November.

Yeah didnt want to bring that up and cause a flood of ppl to the panic room. It isnt horrible we have most of the features we want minus the AO. But as you know the AO is usually an indicator of how wintry out weather will be here so let's just hope it's a relax. I didnt post it but the Strat is really wicked looking with that PV taking a pummeling and a warming signal over Siberia. That should translate down to some blockiness near the N pole in the trop one would think going way forward. That week of Thanksgiving will probably make or break many of the early/mid Dec outlooks depending whether it us a reload or a transition to the weeklies.

My takeaway for hours 180-240 on the 3 ens families was unanimous depiction of ridging over Greenland into the Bering Sea with a piece of the PV subsequently being pinched off in Eastern Canada. Kind of a flat ridge out West but better than a full lat trof as the split flow off the West Coast looks to continue. Only pause is more of a ridge near the Aluetians but that may be a transient feature....not sure. AO looks positive....neutral at best. EPO also has a neutral look. Some mixed signals on the development of a SE ridge among guidance. Difficult to look past that with much of a feel either way. That week definitely has the look of a transition or reload weak irt the overall pattern with the early/mid December pattern likely hinging on how that full week progresses.

What's a "gym"?

You know this but it isnt going to stay BN forever. It did take some big jumps in the medium range irt some of the key long wave features, so sometimes when we see such drastic 'blips' it can be considered a flawed run....not sure here. However, it plays the role of reload. I take 240+ with a grain of salt but if the medium range leading up to the LR is to be believed this run, it sets up a CPF towards the end with a massive EPO ridge pushing into the AO region. Same time the TPV is split and the SPV is undergoing what looks like a SSWE with that feature taking an absolute pounding and hints of a split at the strat level. Again, way out there but just trying to save you from the cliff and give you some positives to go along with your panic over 2m temps. It's only November....hang in there.

Yep, as expected Bering Sea well above normal past 3 months though recently not quote as anomalous. What strikes me is the global sst anomalies. Sheesh. In any event I found info showing AN ssts in the Bering Sea in general since 2016 (was BN for a good period prior). Cant really say there will be a correlation between the AN ssts there and any blocking because if past few years are any indication well....umm yeah lol. I do thing the QBO/PDO and solar min will having an impact on blocking patterns downstream this year over the NAO region.

Interesting: "the Bering sea data are lagged behind the SOI for up to 18 months. The correlations suggest that warming in the Bering Sea follows negative anomalies in the SOI (i.e., El Niño events). Cooling in the Bering Sea tends to follow positive anomalies (i.e., precursors of El Niños) in the SOI. Maximal correlations for the PNA also lag the SOI by a mouth or two. Analyses of variance indicate that the SOI can explain 30 — 40% of the variability in the Bering Sea. Stepwise multiple regressions can explain up to 54% of the variation in air temperatures, up to 39% of the variation in sea ice cover, and up to 46% of the variation in SST in the Bering Sea. PNA and SOI were significant variables only in the equation for air temperatures, indicating a close relationship between them and the atmosphere in the Bering Sea and suggesting that energy is transmitted to the water and ice via the atmosphere. " Source: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41144366?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

Great data! Was more questioning the similarities in the Bering Sea. I noticed there is an anomalous blob of +SD 2m temps that are stationary there on the GEFS the entire run. I wonder how/if that will affect ridging in that area. Eta: Bering Ses is a much smaller area so assuming that will freeze over quickly if not already. Just seems behind quite a bit also.

I like when you talk dirty....in a purely scientific kinda way!

I'll certainly take my chances with that look if it holds. I'm more watching how the flip to +NAO that the weeklies show continues to get pushed back. Like I said too this run the NAO is a hair stronger. Was hoping to just see it not continue to fade from - to + .... didnt expect a better look up there. Would still hope to see the AO work in our favor at some point but these seem to be good signs thru 10 days at least. Persistence. Like Chill said above, the NAO going - to + might favor something father N with no NS in play but tbh this look has potential. Climo going to be tough still but again for me it is all about 10 days and under along with seeing some persistence with certain features. It isnt even Dec yet and there are favorable pattern drivers to track. Cant really ask for much more at this point.

11/16 EPS 12z looks almost identical to 11/15 EPS 12z. If anything NAO ridge looks a hair stronger. Western ridge more evident with reinforcing arctic flow into broad Eastern US trof. Low height Eastern 2/3 of the country. I've seen worse looks in late Nov. ^^PV appears to be splitting as well with one center anchored N of Siberia and the other trying to pinch off around Hudson Bay. Yummy.