Ralph Wiggum

Tbh I haven't looked past day 10 on the ens except for the strat stuff which I rend to glance at. That SPV gets squeezed and almost splits Day 10+ with lots of warning over Siberia. Take what you want from that I guess. Could look worse.

What is even more telling is the sudden silence from HM on Twitter. Speaks volumes.

Biggest takeaway....the god awful seasonal/weeklies pattern continues to get delayed and is always 10+ days out....for now.

12z meso guidance showing some pingers on Sunday. Definitely trending a little more WAA frozen than the globals which can be expected as we get closer.

12z NAM looks like a slightly scaled back QPF version of he UKIE fwiw. I dont trust either tbh but it is interesting.

EPS was a nice tick S as well. Warning criteria snow up here. My gut wants to say we are seeing the windshield wiper effect. But my brain says the S trend may be legit as there is now a banana high appearing across most guidance. If that feature is real and continues to appear on future runs, we may be in business. Interesting.

Hard NOT to be surprised at the last few euro/eps/ggem/ukie runs tbh. It isnt very often that we get systems to trend in our favor.....which is why I am still on the fence irt Philly proper. If this continues thru 12z fri, it is probably time to jump all-in. The euro showing 6-10" up here is certainly something to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving. We take for now.

You back in bruh?

Old EE rule in effect? NAM looks similar to the EPS....stronger hp, colder, develops slp farther S. Verbatim would be a brief snow to rain then back over. N zones look solid for a decent event.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

Looked like it for several runs then overnight trended off S NJ/ACY.

Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

Bomb Cyclone

Bomb Cyclone....seriously?

Feb 1983 storm had an oblong shaped positive tilt fyi. Was a phase job so a different beast but you are painting with a broad brush. Sometimes they can work out. And with a power block crazy things tend to happen.

@RedSky is out on this potential....noted Euro came south with the ULL pass in a beautiful spot much like the GEFS. EPS should be interesting. Looks like a 13-14 situation where models are playing catchup irt surface as things progress along. Again, if the ULL trends and H5 height adjustments continue at HL the surface will catch up to the upper levels. Really good trends today and wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some weenie runs over the next few days. If this were winter climo I would be all in. Going to be interesting tho with a dynamic energetic ull situation so anything could happen. Would be foolish to just assume this will be one particular precip type at this point. Potential is there for some surprises.

12 z keeping positive trends going with better ridging up top. GFS op surface for kicks and stuff:

Liking the continuing trends on guidance so far with more ridging/blocking up top forcing things S.

Looks like the potential is there across guidance for an event Dec 1-2. Going to come down to HL ridging/blocking as the ULL bowls East. Strong enough ridging to the N from S Central Canada across SE Greenland (bridge) could force far enough S to redevelop in a favorable spot. Ens and ops are starting to key on decent ridging with mslp developing off of VA Beach. WAA band could provide snow to begin then need to see how things evolve irt how the coastal will play out. Looks rather dynamic. More later gotta run:

I know it's the icon but big jump on where it develops the mslp irt dec 1-2:

Jackson 5 lol. Love watching him. Amazing.

Weeklies just tossed out the idea of a warm december fwiw and instead try to reestablish HL blocking and CPF. This December is going to be different. @RedSky let me know when you're ready to enter the time machine. $10k no refunds and no coming back

I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted.

So when do we track? Under 36 hours? Cut us a break Red. Anyway, getting skeptical of this ++ao that is forecast to have staying power. All ens break it down quickly and most now have a strong cpf established first 10 days of December. I'm thinking the ao spike is the PV reflection as it is splitting at the trop level.and migrating across the N Pole to Hudson bay and farther south. Once it splits and crosses that region should see the ao go negative again. Will likely fluctuate thru winter but we are seeing good signs in the right HL spots over and over.

Facts!