Ralph Wiggum

Proof that really locking onto any one particular ens mean solution past day 10 even day 7 is dangerous territory. Where we were once seeing ridging in the NAO region across the board is now being replaced medium range with the shortest-lived -NAO ever and going 180 replaced by an anchoring PV potentially. Not the worst look.....think quick hits/progressive. EPO ridge should help with the cold. Of course this is purely speculation post 180 hours. But I think the SPV battering (which has been forecast relatively well actually) is starting to throw fits at the trop. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out...a SSWE can be linked to a reshuffle of the 500mb hemispheric pattern....not clear where we will end up. I hope the look of lots of blues up top and oranges down at ML doesnt verify personally, but we've seen worse. I guess cold is better than warmth right?

Right I forgot I'm thinking KDYL.

Hurricane's winter outlook is out. Low solar activity, near normal to slightly above (30-35") snowfall. He and I are on similar pages which that sort of company I will gladly take!! Hurricane's Winter Outlook

@The Iceman Hey, I'm really liking the Flyers core and youth. Should actually make a push this year. Farabee and Frost are exciting. Myers on D has been a welcome piece. TK playing well. Most vets playing solid. I still think Jake needs to go. Losing faith in Ghost too. But I am hearing Patrick is progressing nicely and may return sooner than later.

Any non weather related stuff and/or general banter that may derail the actual obs and weather threads goes here.

Trends have been good, no doubt. Going neutral and neg as we move farther along in fall is never bad. It does have to level off at some point, can only go so low and remain there so long. I think that the EPO is sort of a reflection of that balance. I can see a pattern where the EPO ridge develops and propogates East with bridging to the NAO while the AO fluxes states between + and - thru the winter. I had HL blocking as a key player in my outlook and think that holds. Just need to see what form it takes and how it morphs in between phases.

Speaking out loud here but watch....we finally get a pattern that may feature NAO blocking and a neg AO periodically and a SSWE comes along and could muck it up. You know how the saying goes, careful what we wish for. I dont see any red flags tbh nor do I see any victory parades being scheduled. Steady as she goes for now. But how we emerge from T-Giving week as our transition and press into Dec is going to be telling imho.

How r u that confident the NA fizzles Dec 5 when we dont know where we are headed 180 hours out? Could go either way. I guess if u look at the 384 ens and weeklies there is support for what you are saying and heck it may be accurate. But that is conjecture at this point....we've seen this LR thing do a 180 as recently as the NAO development which wasn't even supposed to occur just 240 hours ago.

Seems that since the HH run a few evenings ago when this thread was brimming with confidence irt the LR -EPO/-AO/-NAO trifecta looks things have become more muted in the LR especially in the AO/NAO regions on some guidance as the PAC is taking on the dominant player look and is trying to show signs of running the show as early as day 8. As usual, grain of salt past 240. But we can see the NAO goes negative as early as Sunday but around the same the time or soon after, the EPO ridge is beginning to try and flex which is the new player on the field emerging. With that said, where we were once seeing the NAO establish and bleed into the AO the pulsing EPO appears to dampen out any HP over the pole while the NAO slowly fades. You can also see on the ens how the EPO starts a bit west and in turn pumps a SE and even an argument for a S Central ridge before migrating towards the west coast (hopefully but again that is post 240). Like someone said, it is refreshing to see a 50/50 pop now and then so with an EPO ridge and no NAO it has that transient quick-hitter kind of look thump to you know what sorta flow if that pattern held during early climo. So not a total fail nor a total victory sort of pattern coming up. Just one where caution is still urged and I'm not sure anyone knows where this is going to head in Dec right now. Thanksgiving week as stated is going to be a transitional week....it is either a reload as the pattern relaxes and resets or a complete reshuffle of the deck where we start seeing the PaC play bully and push the Atl around as has been so common in recent years. (Attached are the EpS and GEFS day 10....big diffs at HL. FWIW the GEPS is more like the EPS in keeping the NAO neutral/neg.)

It was noted yesterday on some of the ens that those looks.may have legs as you could see some of the transition by days 8ish. So I'm with you and when u r optimistic that's not a bad thing. Just urging caution for some on any specific surface solutions at 384hrs+ lol.

I feel like with the flip of a switch many posters are back to looking past 240 hours and getting their hopes up. And based on a HH op run at that. I admittedly took a peek but I urge optimistic caution lest we forget last winter.

I was just looking at the LR GFS from 18z just for kicks and noted how convoluted of a pattern is appeared with a massive positive SD anomaly over the Aleutians and a fairly crud PAC BUT up top and the N Atl actually allows for workable conditions. Might be venturing into a season where we see some crud looks yet miraculously they deliver? We can hope anyway and tbh I wouldnt be surprised. We are sort of due even tho I realize that isnt how science works.

Geez, gorgeous GEFS runs at 6z and seeing some repeating themes. Noteworthy items...WAR which seems to always be a feature these days instead of locking in or feeding the SE ridge like last year appears to be more of a player in feeding the NAO ridge. Ridge N of Hawaii doesnt lock in destroying the ML Pac flow but rather appears to help pump and feed the EPO ridge down the road. AO goes bonkers negative and appears to hang in for the extended. Lower heights under the region as December approaches. CPF trying to set up. Split flow out West continues. Aleutian low does reload briefly but appears to setup again later on. There isnt anything not to like at this time tbh. I wouldnt call it a unicorn/epic or any of those terms but if verbatim is pretty much almost exactly what we would want to see moving forward. Of course some of this IS past 240 so grain of salt as always but even by day 8ish you can see the pattern reloading and key features trying ti redevelop so it may not be too far off in some of the ideas. I am especially intrigued by the base pattern that is slowly starting to show itself across all ens families. Getting there slowly but surely. Let's get thru next week because as I mentioned a few times, that seems to be the transitional week with a reloading or changing of the pattern. Want to see how we come out of that before celebrating any premature victories for the region(s).

"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High." Source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation&ved=2ahUKEwiVpf_FgfblAhWDdN8KHSCAAQAQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0GhwXcCwaPNo9xghqVw1lN Obviously I would be more inclined to side with CPC and how they determine the NAO but I found that wiki article contradictory of what the CPC uses to measure. It seems odd that two of the big oscillation patterns would be gauged on 2 different atmospheric levels....apples to apples sort of thing.

Is it correct that the AO and NAO phases are actually based on surface pressures more than 500mb/geopotential heights?

But I heard November snows in Iran yield a mild rest of the winter there....kiss of death sorta thing

Taking a beating is an understatement. But a SSWE is extremely volatile and unpredictable. Could throw the entire trop into one hostile mess which is anyone's guess which areas that could potentially favor. I guess it is better than one massive stacked SPV/TPV combo over Santa's hometown but I take these SSWE's with a grain of salt. Sometimes they work out beautifully for us but more often then not it lays an egg.

Typical pattern change/reload/transition look. That is no doubt coming....most ens show this at least starting by day 10. Some bring the current looks back, some flip it.....certainly .mixed signals. Should have some idea about where Dec may head on or around Thanksgiving. I do like some of the recurring themes we have seen most of the fall. Doesnt mean they will hold as a background state this winter though. Lots to be answered.

CPC is backing down on the severe -ao/- nao it had been showing for several days. Ao, nao, and pna look neutral towards late Nov. Again, could be worse I suppose.

Was discussing in another forum how the Euro weeklies and seasonal stuff keeps throwing out a strong +NAO/+AO yet the EPS day 10 is completely disagreeing. After last year, I'm trying to mainly focus on Day 10 and under this year...which looks decent. I keep asking myself can such a decent fall pattern with blocking tendencies really hit a wall and flip on itself to such an extreme as the weeklies and seasonal depict? I suppose the answer is yes. However, last year the weeklies and seasonal were touting the epic unicorn of patterns and it never materialized. Could this be the opposite of last year? Lots of questions and we should see some answers over the next several weeks.

More interested in D1-D10 and nothing farther than that for now. At least trying lol. With that said EPS has a building -NAO and by day 10 looks decent. So unless the pattern collapses on itself, which it could in a few weeks, take what we can get for now.

18z gfs has a nice storm next Sunday

Man if we could get this look to stay all winter or something remotely close it would just be a matter of time. Anyone else see the 95-96 similarities in this flow?

If you look at the PV both at the trop and strat levels signs indicate the majority of the cold is actually going to be deep into Siberia and on the opposite side of the N Hemi. With that said, if we somehow continue to have the BN cold show it's hand with the PV where it is forecast to propogate, I dont think we will be worrying about it too much as there are signs now (really far out there but something getting sniffed out?) that CPF may establish in December allowing for the Siberian cold to follow behind. I'm sure it wont be wall-to-wall BN temps all winter....we will undoubtedly see the reloads and relaxing at times. But the signals are looking promising for more cold and less 'mild' this winter. We can only hope the looks continue.