Ralph Wiggum

Ens means are picking up on the -AO sustaining itself thru Day 10 as well as a growing NAO ridge days 6-10. Wait and see situation as Bob says. Nothing too concerning. The EPS from 12z yesterday with the AN 850s out West across N America maybe a blip. More of a PNA ridge trying to show again. Guess a different wording yesterday would have been preferred such as "hope to see some amplification in the E Pac and not a flat flow into N America". The most favorable reoccurrences are the Aleutian low/EPO ridge, WAR which is displaced N more than last few years and is helping feed the ridge near Greenland at times, and the split flow off the West Coast. All have faded briefly at times but seem to be gaining steam as background states as they continue to show up. Unfavorable looks that surface now and then on the ens means continue to be pushed out past Day 10. Opposite from 2018-19 so far irt to good vs bad. Always chasing unicorns that got pushed back day 10+ last year. This year just the opposite so far.

Just saw they upped the WSW totals to 5-8" here. Not sure what time that was but I'm curious if they back down or just let that ride?

This isnt really a true Miller B....more of a hybrid. Regardless it isnt the Miller B "jump" to the coast that screws us today. It is the old occluding ragged storm scenario. Those pinwheeling lows always seem to struggle with filling in the precip shield and tend to overdo expanse on guidance leading up to the event.

I'm think coating to an inch city and immediate burbs, 1-3" LV, NW Bucks/Montco. 3-6" Poconos. Cant speak to the WSW outside my area which wont come close to verifying. C-2" here in Warminster.

Almost unanimous now:

Just some subtle changes lol:

Well people probably shouldn't look at the NAM then

No details?

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

GFS too

First red flag on the EPS....day 10 screaming PAC jet into the West coast....western US and Canada flooding with PAC air. Rather get it out of the way now I suppose. Many pros seem to think big changes for the better are coming later in Dec.

Models making decent jumps S in the short range. Maybe just maybe for once we can get something to work FOR us rather than against us. Looking very interesting to say the least.

HRDPS continues the theme stalling the slp farther S and even drifts it SSE for a period. Increased totals in SE PA. Again, I would cut most of those in SE PA in half due to losing accums during changeover but still a nice little welcome to met winter storm!

Most mesos are showing that deformation band in the general area. Whoever gets under that as the slp stalls will see the better snows...but you already know this. That CCB band will be somewhere in SE PA.

Most mesos are hellbent on hanging the slp a bit farther S and nudging the heavier snows farther S. Southern Bucks, Montco, Chesco, and even Delco now potentially in play. Definitely nice to see trends in our favor to begin met winter as opposed to trending the opposite way. Cut those totals in half btw as most areas in SE PA will be fighting accums to starts during the rain to snow transition. Going to be a nowcast for my area no doubt.

Thru 240 on the EPS/GEFS/GEPS pattern isnt terrible. AO looks to go from positive back to neutral then negative. PNA starts then ends positive. Big EPO ridge...Aleutian low. Atl side is meh imo...nothing too exciting yet no major red flags either. Would be nice to get the NAO ridge to work in tandem with the favorable PAC teleconnections but maybe as we move thru the month. Again, thru day 10 no significant concerns and certainly not a shutout look. And that takes us closer to mid Dec so no complaints. Those day 10+ progs with collapsing patterns and PAC air flooding the US keep being pushed back for now.

Yup I went 1-3" for us. Go Birds!

How the heck do I make a forecast for Doylestown based on this...most mesos are close in the sharp cutoff.

NAM crept South with the meaningful snow fwiw. Gets the nearby burbs into the action with the ULL/CCB love.

Euro is close to something. Temps are close below the M/D line at glance. Didnt see precip maps. Eta: Better spot similar to tomorrow's storm ie Northeast PA, NY, NE...maybe a rain to backend snow

The Euro is like the grand-dad that is starting to lose it and the Ukie is like the drunk uncle that passes out before the holiday dinner.

The areas like the LV and Poconos that may see accumulating snow are in a different sub forum. The Philly area will start as a mix N of the M/D line mid morning. Turning to plain rain South to North. Periods of rain/wet snow Monday as the coastal does the tighten up. Accumulation in extreme SE PA will be minimal at best imo. Northeast PA will do well.

Both jet streams are somewhat progressive and the NS disturbance and SS disturbance remain separated on most if not all guidance. Would need a mechanism to nudge the SS to the North and/or amplify the NS....and then of course timing a phase would be the next obstacle. Worth watching but not a threat right now.

Squeeze play...under 7 days now. Bubble of hp on W North America and another squeezing over the Middle East. Looks like the warming over Siberia is legit and the SPV is getting pummeled. I'll leave it to the experts to decipher what it means but it cant be bad. Beats a strong SPV anchored over the N Pole that is stable and unpressured no?

In like with the Ukie and GGEM