Ralph Wiggum

So open arctic waters = blocking/ridging patterns with displaced jet streams? That is some interesting stuff. So if a hole formed in the Arctic Circle near the N Pole should we expect a -AO? I'm not seeing how such a small scale feature would cause the entire jet structure to buckle and 'meander' North. The nature.com article may not be inaccurate as the biblio shows they drew heavily on legit sources. But I cant see how that small area has more say in driving the patterns than the entire Pac/PDO influence. Interesting discussion tho.

Not sure I agree with the Chukchi Sea driving the EPO ridge. Chicken/egg argument. The PDO is likely more of a factor on why the EPO has been such a feature more than not the last 8 years to a decade. That ridge is leading to warmth and yes the open waters where you mentioned. But such a relatively small body of water is doubtful to be one of the main reasons for the repeated ridging in the area. Also, note that ridging in the EPO is actually being fed across the pole from old western Russia over the Pole then down into the EPO region. But yes, the EPO is certainly helping to buckle the flow. We just disagree on what the catalyst is for said ridging. I believe the state of the PDO keeping the Aleutian low in play is more the reason than the small pool of open waters N of Alaska. The atmosphere affected the waters/ssts not the other way around imo.

There were quite a few that had early Dec mild and the tail end turning favorable as of 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now we are hearing just the opposite from several sources. I try and base my expectations on day 10 and under. I've learned that sure you can get clues past day 10 but predictability is rather low. Now we continue to see 10 day and under progs hanging on to a general cooler look and holding off any firehose/torch out past day 10. The delay keeps reoccurring for now anyway and HL blocking (AO/EPO/some NAO) keeps popping up mid range. Any warmth looks transient next 10 days in advance of arctic fropa. We will see how much longer the delay in pattern flip to 'blah' continues. I'm happy where we are for now and with some of the recurring tellies that are showing up as possible background state.

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op.

Warm Dec calls are losing steam quickly it appears. Many of the tellies those forecasters were keying on haven't evolved nor had any staying power yet. Too early to say tho but next 10 days....yeah. takes us to almost kid Dec and no torch.

Yep Philly to NYC. Had a coating here WSW had me 5-8". I'm reading NYC proper was expecting big totals and got almost zero....cant confirm that I dont follow NYC as much. Funny thing I noticed....years where our first storm is early and/or an overperformer the rest of the season has sucked. When we have had a busted first event the rest of the season is usually decent. Go figure. Sort of like when I'm striped bass fishing from the surf...if I catch on the first cast I usually dont catch the rest of the day and vice versa. Never fails.

Too progressive still but that wave you mention transitions to ridging upstream and slows things down for the period I am looking at.

Was pretty much across the board on models for that area. Weird that all mesos failed within 18 hours of the event like this. But thus is the Miller B-hybrid occluded slp.

At least we got the dust off the old tracking links and we are officially inside met winter now. Would rather be tracking than be in a complete shutout pattern like recent Decembers.

There is a window of interesting disturbances and decent tellies Dec 11-16 give or take which while not screaming 'storm' holds some potential for a surprise.

I will say this...those sustained AN temp regime looks and blue balls over the N Pole keep getting pushed back and there is nary a sign of any SE ridge which many of the warm December forecasts were banking on. This cant be a bad thing as now the next 10 days look ok and takes us to almost mid December. It's a little premature for us to celebrate but many of those warm Dec forecasts may be quickly losing steam....no pun intended.

I realize about the WAR but before we enter prime climo an anti cyclone in the 50/50 spot usually hurts us more than helps especially with ssts still relatively warm. Now this look in another 3 weeks and we could probably get away with it. Love that Pac look tho.

These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged, and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area.

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

Stole my thoughts. Pac and AO look great Atl goes to meh. Atl looks great and AO/Pac go to blah. Not a loss which isnt a bad thing. A split down the middle for now is acceptable. Need both sides to work in tandem this time of year. But as winter climo nears we can find ways to score without a tag team combo.

But that Atlantic side

Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle.

But even so I see no more than 1 inch on any guidance.

Sun is out here.

I'm in Ivyland on the edge lol. Starting to see it pivot away on radar outside of that narrow band. Fingers crossed on the afternoon/evening but guidance continues to back off.

"Heavy" snow? Congrats. Heaviest convection now moving across the river and N of Trenton like the models caved to last night. Flurries here....all but over. Doubt we see much with the afternoon/evening batch: Eta: Headed to BK soon for my routine snowfall Whopper in your honor sir

Band over Bucks is starting to slowwwwly fade and migrate NE. Looks like a break coming and a second batch later today. Have a very light coating here in Warminster...skeptical if we can squeeze an inch of snow out of this system here. The afternoon/evening will be crucial irt totals across the area.

Well I went lower but we'll see. This batch is a nice surprise. All mesos show this batch fading and the death band setting up across the river between 10 and noon so that's the time to keep eyes on the radar and see how/where things are progressing.

Maybe the HDRPS will score a win with the 24" lolli over our area

Uber deathband of 1" per 24 hour rates here!