Ralph Wiggum

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

My condolences...very sorry for your loss.

Balancing acts and needle threading generally dont work out for us. Holding expectations low with this....very low.

These snow depth maps have actually verified ok in the past. I would lean towards this tbh. Eta: has the DC-philly-NYC snowhole so more likely to verify

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway.

GEPS has the Aleutian Low anchored as well....doesnt budge entire run. We take.

Sacrificing the big storm next weekend for a cutter is what we do best. It sets the pattern for the follow up storm. In this pattern the way the PAC looks, a cutter is perfectly acceptable.

I wouldnt be surprised but I hope they dont win it. They will be blown out in the first playoff game.

From what I've seen, most of the posters in here are Ravens fans more so than Redskins no? Anyway, amazing how poor the NFC East is. Technically the Skins are still in the hunt for the Division at 3-9. Unreal.

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently.

With such hits as: "Piece Left Behind" "Sheared Apart" "Jets Streaks" and the classic "This Is the One: The Ballad of Ji"

Same here. Overwhelmed with holiday deliveries and the Monday snow event up that way will do it.

You guys like that new band? December 2019 and the Trailing Waves. Heard they are touring the East Coast this month.

Basically every month for the next year is AN temps except April which is BN. Love me a CanSips mild torchy winter and cold rainy April lol. Maybe our big snow is early April this year. It's like taking the over in a football game....you're never really out of it until the bitter end.

How many members have this trailing wave irt Dec 11? I see the GGEM is still on board? Just curious what the spread looks like and if we are seeing any increases in the tendency for this development. As you said, these have more a tendency to fail. A progressive Atl flow doesnt help matters much.

Noticed some subtle but important changes in the GEFS mean irt the day 10ish storm evolution at 500mb. Figured maybe they were worth noting. Still progressive look in the N Atl but there is slightly more ridging ahead of the storm but more importantly imo is the separation between the stj disturbance and the NS/PV. That look of less phasing and more sliding is something that favors more white and less wet for you guys. So many options but looks like with this setup we either root for a heavy thump with the inevitable changeover and phase to the West OR root for all white but maybe sacrificing totals as it moves/'slides' quickly.

There is some ridging to the N of it and a well-timed transient 50/50 so it isnt horrible. Would like to see the ridging to the N of the ULL stay in tact and spread East with the system. Have actually seen that look quite a few times over the past 6 weeks or so as higher height break off the West Coast ridge and propogate downstream. Solid potential showing on the ops tho so there's that. But alas it will look different next run and the 36 runs thereafter lol.

Still eyeing the window centered around the 14th give or take 2 days either side for our next potential threat. Tellies in the PAC and AO regions are favorable...Atl side is meh but workable. Stj gets active and now the ops are beginning to show some specific systems in the time. PV sideswipes the region with moisture trying to attack the CAD that has been established. To phase or not to phase and timing/temp issues obviously. Way out there but something to watch as ens and now ops beginning to wake up. Here's the 6z GFS take. Mind you the euro is amped in Ohio so keep expectations in check for now. GfS has that same OV low. Without a true N Atl/Greenland block this setup is going to be difficult to force the slp off the coast. Favors more of a CAD to start thump to mix/rain scenario.

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok. Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take.

0z GGEM right on the coast or just inside, 0z GFS southern slider, 0z Euro amped and in Ohio. About right at this range. GFS is slow moving out the Southwest ULL so never phases. GGEM and Euro phase as the energy in the stj comes East but big diffs in timing of the NS sw. A fluke is still possible but without the Atl cooperating and no HL block going to be tough to get an all snow situation out of that. I think it was Bob that mentioned a cut West thump to rain is most likely in this setup if a full phase were to occur. Less of a phase would be better and that would likely benefit you guys more under the M/D line as it slides. At least we have something to track. Expectations in check for this one tho.

Picked up one tenth of an inch of snow this morning.

So if I am reading this correctly, Isotherm is basically saying a wasted first part of winter with majority non-snow events and a struggle even into the mid portion but turning favorable second half? And Ray is saying favorable first half of winter but a wild card for the second half where he expects the Pac to turn hostile and relying on N Atl blocking to save us? Two of the best and most knowledgeable guys on the boards and two completely different takes. Good reads from both of them lately.

I have the utmost respect for Tom and his knowledge of atmospheric science and meteorology. But I couldnt help but chuckle while reading this as I pictured Tom in a fitted suit in court as a paralegal presenting his case to the judge and jury. Very professionally presented!

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful. Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power.