Ralph Wiggum

^^^this We take any chance we get as they come and sacrificing a good setup for something down the line....no thanks.

That's a different look. Total non phase yet isnt a straight slider either. Trying to prove me wrong (above) that the middle road solution would be a stretch.

It probably wouldn't take much separation with the NAO trying to build-in to force things South. The ens spread between sliders and cutters verifies this. As many have alluded to, best case is a thump to meh scenario. The direct hit/in between look is unlikely. Plenty of chances moving forward though. I feel like we have been tracking for well over a month already and it isnt mid December just yet. I know there isnt a whole lot to show for it but we are off to an early start and the recent years' Dec fail patterns are non existent. Give us chances....we will score.

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times?

Just wrapped up here at .9"

Best rates of the event currently. Marshmallows falling from the sky. Around .8" so far.

You are in a better spot than us in central Bucks...if guidance is right with the banding.

Strongly agree. Best convergence seems to be right over the Del River into NJ so maybe if there is banding it sets up there. Classic cold chasing rain. Unfortunately the cold push looks stronger than originally modeled and may chase the precip out quicker. Next week looks interesting on guidance

HL blocking that appears to be well-timed may end being the saving grace with this particular threat. Like many of us often allude to, we dont need an anchored blocking look for weeks at a time. Nice window next week for something.

Most guidance is the c-2" or 3" deal with usual Canadian models ramping up the banding with a stripe of 5-10" over SE PA and NJ. Unfortunately for snow lovers the canadian models are usually not accurate irt snowfall amounts. With that said tho, need to see if the banding shown on those models is consistent among other mesos today.

Looks like a stripe of c-2" through SE PA for this one is the consensus among guidance. Accums will struggle with the 2 mild days ahead of the system and low precip rates generally.

I try and add substance to the disco here and yeah the phl forum is dead. I dont troll the main threads like folks do from say the NYC forum. Every time CAPE make a reply to me, he always makes sure to throw in a jab or some one liner. It is what it is but seems unnecessary. I thought taking it to banter was the right choice.

I've been only keying on day 10 and under irt patterns and real weather. Only looking at 'fantasy' range for fun this season. With that said, 8 days ago part of the PV was progged to drop into Ov and spill into the MA and NE. Now instead of -17 2m departures we are looking at -3 in spots. Wed/Thurs. Big diffs showing again inside of 10 days. Here is Day 9...doesnt look mild and again....could change or moderate but these bad looks and West Coast trofs continue to get muted as lead times lessen or have been transient. Pattern reload out West will happen....inevitable. Key is 'reload' based off of the background state setting up and the flow/pattern repitionwehave generally seen for the past 6 or 7 weeks. And even a -PNA can produce. If the AO and NAO can look remotely like this, we can play the balancing act game.

I only pay attention to the people who post substance in the main threads. You must have gotten lost in the mix.

Well, the bad looks and meh patterns have been short-lived essentially since October. So you probably have a general idea of where I'm leaning.

Sort of like last year? Repeatedly day 10+ epic pattern that never materialized which half the time was a 180 of what was shown day 12 onward. Like Bob said, nobody knows.

Apparently the old sages have punted December claiming PAC firehose and long recovery period. Not sure I completely agree with the AO poised to tank, ridging developing over Greenland, and 50/50 lows popping up as we enter winter climo but I guess the PAC runs the show anymore in this new climate.

Merry Christmas fantasy range tease

I'm off to work but the NAM (ugh) has a slower trailing wave and more overrunning in a WSW-ENE trajectory than 6z.

Just switched 'much' to 'part'. Forgot how widespread this sub is, sorry.

NAM giving some areas a NAMing. Should we surprised? Better surface reflection and good swath of overrunning for part of the forum.

Definitely more of a W-E orientation on the NAM 12z vs 6z. Hanging more energy back over TX too. Follow up wave to the follow up wave?

Most models are now showing a wave of low pressure riding up along a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wont be a prolific snowmaker but could lay down some light accumulations in spots and impact AM rush on Wednesday.

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

My condolences...very sorry for your loss.