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Ralph Wiggum

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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum

    December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

    Last run had some ns involvement that phased in and helped give more of  a negative tilt.  This run no ns and consequently positively tilted trough much longer .

    Looks like yesterday's Euro ... GFS never goes neg tilt. We are going to be dealing with coastal vs suppression most of the week from run to run

    • Like 1

    December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

    EPS isn't too enthused about the pre-Xmas potential yet. Actually looking through the members, there is a stronger signal for the period just after.

    EPS has been following along late with the last few coastal storms if that matters here. Who knows which will cave?

    • Like 1

    December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

    6z gefs has several members bullish for the MA.

    image.png.0f11f2d7ef2712c9ca548602386a1921.png

    Member 3 with the 36"+ lollis ha! Some monsters in there. Cautious at this point. We've seen how much this has shifted around in only 6 hours from run-to-run.

    Biggest takeaway from overnight runs...the big coastal storm idea seems more likely now. But there is going to be much fine tuning irt to track and evolution over the next few days. Plenty of small diffs at 500mb that could have huge impacts at the surface. Never liked trying to nail these down with the PV being close and trying to get involved.

    December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Unfortunately Bob is right (which is usually more often than not). There is a flat and fast flow coming up with a flood of PAC maritime air poised to invade N america and is under 10 days. 

    However, I am still a believer this is a relatively brief relax in the overall  pattern. The effects of the PAC puke pattern will be felt just before Christmas it appears. It is what it is. So we wont have to bundle up like eskimos to visit the fam. I can deal with that....we are used to it by now right? But temps as folks noted wont be 60s and 70s but more of a muted torch with mid 40s and 50s likely being the extreme.

    With that said, there is already light at the end of the tunnel(if the LR GEFS are to be believed) and by 240 hours a broad trof is already starting to develop with more of an amplified flow out West and less of a direct PAC maritime influence. Rather than post the 500mb maps (leaving that to @showmethesnow ) I am posting the 2m anomalies to simplify things for folks that are already panicking. Here is the 5-day 2m temp anomalies loop for the 18z GEFS run. 2m is difficult.to forecast but is reflective of the pattern moderation breaking down. At 240 you can see the wave of PAC air flying thru the US from W to E. However there are 2 things that stand out....first is the BN air replacing the PAC air out in w Canada and the US but also the AN temps progressing into Greenland. If the flow is to be believed, the moderation will be short-lived and warmth over Greenland generally spells ridging in that area as far as I'm concerned. Sticking to the moderation being roughly 6 or 7 days with the reload being in place by New Years. Probably wrong and tough to call but I figured why not try. If past history this early season is indicitave of length of pattern reload, it should be relatively brief.

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_fh192-384.gif

    • Like 1

    December 16/17 Baby Bump Thump Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    NAM is depicting a weak surface wave off the VA Capes after 50 hrs. Also ticked s with that. There us now a slight N of due E trajectory irt 10m wind vectors. One would think that feature will be a player as the event nears and could keep borderline areas frozen longer IF this feature on the 12k is real. Anyone else seeing a sleet/ice threat developing with this in those favored valley and inland areas?

    namconus_mslp_wind_neus_44.png

    Snow, sleet, ice, and rain Dec 16-17, 2019

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    12k nam is colder to start then is warmer at the surface after 54 hrs. I urge caution with that. Keep an eye on the weakness that it is depicting after 50 hrs east of the VA Capes. There is a slight N of E component to the wind vectors. That feature has also nudged south. If in fact that is real and continues to be shown it could help lock in the 2m cold more than what is being modeled. Going to be a diff of 1 degree either side for alot of folks imo.

     

    namconus_mslp_wind_neus_44.png

    Snow, sleet, ice, and rain Dec 16-17, 2019

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Becoming increasingly concerned regarding Monday and into the early part of Tuesday. While the global guidance may have a meh look or one that portrays us dodging a  bullet, the mesos which are now beginning to get into range are seeing things differently.

    Snow will over spread the region early Monday. Most guidance is trending notably colder and some mesos are developing a weak slp off the coast. This is allowing the flow to maintain more of a Northerly component. This keeps surface temps below freezing for a good part of Eastern PA thru Tuesday morning. Sleet and freezing rain could be an issue during the day on Monday all the way thru early Tueaday for parts of SE PA particularly the low lying and favored NE suburbs. 

    Definitely need to be watching this as guidance is starting to honk on the potential for a fair amount of frozen. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

    Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't

    Hopefully improvement in January still too early.

     

    Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

    Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol

     

    There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an east coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks. 

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