Ralph Wiggum

Final nail in the coffin on the weekend? Models are considerably warmer surface and at 850 now. Far NW areas should cash in but aside from the icon and NAM basically this is mainly a rainer down here now. GFS has a couple mangled flakes to start and to finish and that's it. Same with RGEM. Next week looks like a fropa followed by a wave on the front that either cuts or slides ots under us....choose your poison on that one. 

3 weeks pitchers and catchers.

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Looks like bulk of heavy stuff staying SE of city....Wouldn’t be shocked if some people in NJ see 2-3” if its frozen

Fitting....this trended s and E but the weekend system went and keeps going N and W. Some years ya win some ya lose that's just the way it is.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Real actual snowflakes falling! First I have seen them at night with the flood light, being serious

 

Pattern change ftw

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice to see the RGEM continue the 00z trend.  Getting excited for McHenry this weekend.

Rgem is torched at 2m 

RGEM went South as well. ICON otoh is warmer and ticked N. RGEM and NAM seemed like sizable shifts anyway.

Eta: weird...rgem torches the surface 2m temps (into the 40s in extreme sepa) yet is slightly colder at 850mb. Still warmish overall but track is better.

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah.  NAM made a sizeable jump south and east.  You could see it early on at H5.    Meh..NAM and all

It's in its wheelhouse (weenie rule #5723 section b clause 4)

Was only really expecting a c-2" but radar has really fallen apart. Might eek out a dusting-coating.

2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Nice. I just got into surf casting but only caught a blue this fall. Kinda terrible lol. I caught a 20 lber in the spring though in the big D. I salt and fresh water fish a ton

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Awesome! This was a lousy year in the surf for many so one blue isnt horrible. Worst I may have ever had. Maybe we'll wet lines sometime man. 

New NAM never gets above freezing here at the surface. 850s torch tho so looks like after 3-6" thump of snow we have sleetmageddon. In any event quite a shift in apparent snowfall from 18z:

Eta: ninja'd by kamu aka snow pile guy aka squirrel man 

1 hour ago, hurricane1091 said:

You fish bud?

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Yes. Pretty avid hardcore surf fisherman. I hit the rivers in spring early and follow the striper migration then move down into lower Delaware Bay mid April thru very early May then move to the beaches and catch the run of black drum, blues, and of course the stripers moving thru. Then flounder and weakies most of summer with surf kingfish by July. I usually relax late July thru mid to late August then gear up for the fall mullet run and subsequently blues and stripers. So yeah, I fish a little.

1 hour ago, hurricane1091 said:

I briefly went to school for meteorology because I love tracking snow. I ended up switching majors and financially it's been amazing, but I still love tracking storms. I hate driving in it and I hate those storms where it just lingers on the road and you end up parking on ice piles for days. I'm NOT a winter guy at all. I love the beach and fishing, t shirts and shorts. Hate winter. This winter is useless too since it's COLD but not snowy. Let's just get to spring already. Bring on the fish!!!

Striped bass run in t-minus 2 months!!

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cutter followed by follow up wave ots south of us is my call

Aaaannnnndddd 18z gfs is this exact scenario. Cant make this stuff up. This season miss 20 miles N miss 20 miles s miss 20 miles w miss 20 miles e and the tightest gradients ever. Aside from Nov which will probably be our secs for the year.

Weird....the JMA 850s dont match. 850s scorch but precip maps are frozen. Toss.

5 minutes ago, jdamobile said:

Ralph,

Do you have the rest of the run? TT only has that and the precip maps. Icon looked good. Real good initial thump. If this low could go through VA instead of on top of us. We'd all be happy. I think. 

Rough maps I use are meh....just widespread 1-3' DC - just W of BOS 

Eta: has the 2nd punch like the icon FWIW which drops ~8"-12"

2 hours ago, paxpatriot said:

Where's Ji? The JMA looks super sweet.

JMA is 5 days late from when other models showed HECS DC - BOS....drool worthy anyway. 

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

The JMA is that last nail that hasnt been hammered in yet I assume?

JMA absolutely annhialated majority of us this run. Perfect track. MECS/HECS. So JMA/ICON vs the world. Not sure I would lay money on those odds tho with the odds an upset would pay extremely well.

17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

My nails are still in the toolbox. Won't start my official nailing till tomorrow...

*Off topic a bit, anyone have any insight (weather) on the Pats at KC Sunday at 6:40pm?    

Final nail for I95 should be 0z. Hoping for a 4th qtr shift/fake punt/onside kick

7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Dr No, Mr Glass or whatever jogged 40 miles NW with the jackboot 

 

3rd nail

just saw elsewhere ukmet is juiciest now of all guidance and holds ll cold in much longer. At work cant check. Can anyone confirm??

46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

This is the winter of getting kicked in the nuts. Seems Everytime we need a north trend we trend south and when we need a south trend we trend north. Curious to see how we mess up the 24th system...

Cutter followed by follow up wave ots south of us is my call

50 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Plenty of cold rain for all but the far NW crowd on the Ukie, again just needed to hold the line and not lose an inch of ground from 0z one step forward and two steps back

 

 

 

Yep 12z was two nails out of 4 in the coffin so far.

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Interesting to note how far south today's threat came. This was initially a rain event for 95...now looks to remain all snow. a similar shift with this storm and many of us would be in the game big time.

Initially this was a HECS 5 days ago if u recall. Some guidance had 40"+ for DC. The wavering solutions have been really interesting.

Eta: I dont think we are done with bouncing around until this wave tonight passes thru earliest. I could still it trending either way tbh. 

6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yes! Here here!

I saw u mention u in Montco now? Did u relocate? I look to be ground zero here in central bucks going to be touch and go.

8 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Man can't wait to see the Euro play its next shot, it has a nice look for birdie on the 12z. 

I think we are locked in on a far NW heavy snow hit right now. Just need to see about immediate NW burbs now etc irt ice sleet slop or snow