Ralph Wiggum

Becoming increasingly concerned regarding Monday and into the early part of Tuesday. While the global guidance may have a meh look or one that portrays us dodging a bullet, the mesos which are now beginning to get into range are seeing things differently. Snow will over spread the region early Monday. Most guidance is trending notably colder and some mesos are developing a weak slp off the coast. This is allowing the flow to maintain more of a Northerly component. This keeps surface temps below freezing for a good part of Eastern PA thru Tuesday morning. Sleet and freezing rain could be an issue during the day on Monday all the way thru early Tueaday for parts of SE PA particularly the low lying and favored NE suburbs. Definitely need to be watching this as guidance is starting to honk on the potential for a fair amount of frozen.

cheers!!

You may very well be right. Like you said 50/50. I'm just playing devil's advocate with you. Your glass is half empty mine is half full. Just keeping discussion open and both of us are presenting different sides.

Nobody mentioned the GEFS 5-day 2m temp avgs thru the entire run are BN aside from 1 AN panel at the start and a N panel. Really believing the moderation is going to be muted and transient. Alas, it is the GEFS but verification hasn't been shoddy lately.

Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw.

There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an east coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks.

Surface temps. As you already know pretty much useless at this range irt r/s stuff but useful for showing there is cold air around and available on the GEFS.

Ok signal for some sort of a coastal storm at this range

Likewise Paul

Isnt that our moderation/closed blinds period? GEFS either blinked or the cave is starting. Wouldnt be the first or second time this monh.

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging.

Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general.

Agreed Bob. This has the makings of a muted and transient moderation as the pattern reloads. We are likely going to see this every so often this winter, tho overall I do believe we will avg colder than normal, so any panic shouldn't be warranted at this point. Now if this PAC puke had staying power thru the waning days of Dec into early Jan and we needed to waste an additional 10-12 days reestablishing the cold in Canada then another 5 days to a week to deliver said cold into the lower 48, then frustration would certainly be warranted. I dont think you nor I nor anyone else that posts in this forum is seeing such a thing at this time.

Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold.

Maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system.

The OG. Youre taking me back! Anyone do the mirc thing on #neweather with Ian, Marcus, and I (SteveB)? I think Randy eventually joined us...and a bunch from the NE crew.

I dont doubt it. We used to have the dreaded January Thaw....and that was a legit real thing. We could count on it almost every single year. This appears no different.

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.

So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road?

And one big HP center quickly pulling away

Typical winter progression on americanwx.... 8am - LR thread becomes a super thread and is labeled "hot topic" as people are waking up and posting about the great overnight trends 11:25am - Banter thread becomes busy and is now labeled "hot topic" as the 12z runs back off of what the overnight runs showed Inevitable 2pm - Panic Room thread labeled as "hot topic" 4pm - discobs thread becomes "hot topic" as people start posting about the deluge of rain 5:20pm - LR thread has 40 new posts in 10 mins about how the 18z runs are showing some hope

At least once so far this month.

Should be a decent test of the LR op from the "new and improved" GFS. The GFS has been signaling this threat window consistently in one form or another nearly every single run essentially since it has gotten in range. Other guidance has the stj disturbance but nowhere near the consistent appearance of the GFS. In years past many will vouch for this....the old GFS would stick to its guns firmly 8 out of 10 times and we would say "it has been the most consistent" and side with this model...I've certainly been guilty. Then all of a sudden at like Day 6 or 5 it would just drop the threat completely. Sometimes it came back as a minor event, but most of the time ended uneventfully. Should be interesting to see if that issue has been resolved and if the new GFS might have a nose for actually sniffing these threats out. If this were 2 or 3years ago I think if we were presented with the Euro and the GFS irt Dec 22 most of us would hug the GFS but have a feeling which model would be more likely to verify. Both families have undergone extensive upgrades over the past couple of years and each is a shell of its former self with new intricacies and biases. I'm watching with fevered interest and am really curious to see how this LR model war plays out. I'm tempted to think recent history repeats and the meh euro look gets muted/delayed but past history with the old GFS tells me it will cave. I'm stuck in the middle for now as both scenarios have some support.

Just to show how futile it is to look at an op that far out in range (even tho I am for kicks and giggles only), you gotta love the 6 closed LP contours off the coast. Take your pick. Again, resolution gets cut at this range but just funny to see.