Ralph Wiggum

This was progged to drive into Pitt even Buffalo on guidance just a few days ago so to say this has merely ticked S is an understatement. Some areas are going to wake up to an icy sleety mess Tuesday AM. NAM 3K RGEM HRDPS

10m wind vectors on mesos pivoting to a NEasterly component lending credence to there being a surface wave to the east helping to lock in the cold.

This is happening mostly overnight Monday fyi so Tuesday early will be a mess in many areas in the Interior and favored areas that hang on to the cold longer.

RGEM, HRDPS, and 3k NAM all take the slp under us now for this event which is a new development. ICON does too but not counting global guidance. Mesos are precariously close to being a major ice event in the N part of my county (Bucks). Ticking closer and closer.....and colder....and Souther

That damn ridge N of Hawaii killed us last year and it returns and looks to have staying power on the ens. Still somewhat skeptical of D10+ but agreed with the concern.

Red flags raised?

How are people punting thru the last week of January?

Jan 2016....warmup.right after. It happens when you get an Archambault event and they are not easy to forecast. The coming weekend storm looks to be in that category as the NAO ridge moves around. I would take a decent snowstorm even if it meant sacrificing the pattern for a week or so. I'm not in the camp that the PAC puke sticks around thru mid January as I have seen touted around in other forums. By Jan 1 the return to a better pattern should be well underway.

Is it ever wrong tho? Wait, dont answer that

Looks like yesterday's Euro ... GFS never goes neg tilt. We are going to be dealing with coastal vs suppression most of the week from run to run

RGEM is colder and remains below freezing majority of the event. Thump is non existent but signaling a major icing event with the 2nd wave interior.

EPS has been following along late with the last few coastal storms if that matters here. Who knows which will cave?

Member 3 with the 36"+ lollis ha! Some monsters in there. Cautious at this point. We've seen how much this has shifted around in only 6 hours from run-to-run. Biggest takeaway from overnight runs...the big coastal storm idea seems more likely now. But there is going to be much fine tuning irt to track and evolution over the next few days. Plenty of small diffs at 500mb that could have huge impacts at the surface. Never liked trying to nail these down with the PV being close and trying to get involved.

Eagles-Cowboys game in Philly could be alot of fun with the entire season riding on it for both teams

It's a good look. Get this under 5 days and I think we would all be gooning. Almost there. Sure would make the Philly-Dallas / Giants-Redskins games alot of fun.

6z GFS was a step in the right direction:

Mesos are coming in and colder again:

0z NAM is colder....more frozen. Wind vectors have increased Northerly component at 10m with a NE/NNE trajectory thanks to a weak surface wave off the DelMarVa.

It could be worse, they could have peed in the snow making machine.

Unfortunately Bob is right (which is usually more often than not). There is a flat and fast flow coming up with a flood of PAC maritime air poised to invade N america and is under 10 days. However, I am still a believer this is a relatively brief relax in the overall pattern. The effects of the PAC puke pattern will be felt just before Christmas it appears. It is what it is. So we wont have to bundle up like eskimos to visit the fam. I can deal with that....we are used to it by now right? But temps as folks noted wont be 60s and 70s but more of a muted torch with mid 40s and 50s likely being the extreme. With that said, there is already light at the end of the tunnel(if the LR GEFS are to be believed) and by 240 hours a broad trof is already starting to develop with more of an amplified flow out West and less of a direct PAC maritime influence. Rather than post the 500mb maps (leaving that to @showmethesnow ) I am posting the 2m anomalies to simplify things for folks that are already panicking. Here is the 5-day 2m temp anomalies loop for the 18z GEFS run. 2m is difficult.to forecast but is reflective of the pattern moderation breaking down. At 240 you can see the wave of PAC air flying thru the US from W to E. However there are 2 things that stand out....first is the BN air replacing the PAC air out in w Canada and the US but also the AN temps progressing into Greenland. If the flow is to be believed, the moderation will be short-lived and warmth over Greenland generally spells ridging in that area as far as I'm concerned. Sticking to the moderation being roughly 6 or 7 days with the reload being in place by New Years. Probably wrong and tough to call but I figured why not try. If past history this early season is indicitave of length of pattern reload, it should be relatively brief.

12z mesos are quite cold on Monday morning. For some areas being inline for the biggest event of the season so far, its awfully quiet.

NAM is depicting a weak surface wave off the VA Capes after 50 hrs. Also ticked s with that. There us now a slight N of due E trajectory irt 10m wind vectors. One would think that feature will be a player as the event nears and could keep borderline areas frozen longer IF this feature on the 12k is real. Anyone else seeing a sleet/ice threat developing with this in those favored valley and inland areas?

12k nam is colder to start then is warmer at the surface after 54 hrs. I urge caution with that. Keep an eye on the weakness that it is depicting after 50 hrs east of the VA Capes. There is a slight N of E component to the wind vectors. That feature has also nudged south. If in fact that is real and continues to be shown it could help lock in the 2m cold more than what is being modeled. Going to be a diff of 1 degree either side for alot of folks imo.

This looks like it will be the 5th time we have seem some sort of snow already in my area and it is only mid Dec. Granted all have been under 1" but that has to account for something.

Yes as have the GFS and icon. As I type this the 12z nam is ticking S as well.