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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    SE PA has a few squalls set to move thru between 5 and 9pm. Some spots may pick up a quick C-1" still it appears.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    @frd Thought this SPV chart was worth posting. Clearly shows the vortex getting pressured and the repeated inability to remain as a solid anchored core. One would surmise these looks are having an impact down at the trop level but that correlative reasoning is above my pay grade.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    We must never forget the CRAS....for good and for bad....mainly bad....really quite bad.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Used to be the NOGAPS. That model had a progressive bias. I'm assuming the NAVGEM no longer has that bias.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    CRAS was (sadly) discontinued. Had it's one shining moment as the only model to nail the Boxing Day storm at range. It will live in infamy with other great retired models such as the NGM, MRF, DGEX, and ETA.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    And in proper fashion the Flyers dominate with a 4-1 win. How sad for Oskar Lindblom tho. So young. Cancer just doesnt discriminate. Prayers for a full recovery.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Hrrr is in for SE PA squalls. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening could be fun....short-lived but fun.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    OP runs that are weenie runs past 300 hours with the 384 hour fantasy blizzard don't normally work out either....so there's that.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    3k NAM jumped on board
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    The SPV/TPV outlook is nearly impossible to forecast. However, the SPV looks to get pummeled with a squeeze (almost splits!) and that is under 240 hours so it may have some credence. If recent past history from Nov is any indictation, that *should* have some effect on the TPV. We saw last month a similar setup where the TPV was trying to anchor and solidify but when the same SPV beatdown came along it actually caused the TPV to split. There were actually 3 lobes at one point iirc.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Mesos still looking good for some snow squalls tomorrow evening as a trof swings thru the region. Northern areas favored. Any of those could drop a quick localized c-1"
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Only thing that could bring that N is if the cutoff slowed down and stalled long enough before being well East of FL so that a different piece of upstream energy could pick it up. But with the ridge at h5 separating the jets that is unlikely as well. And even if that happened, it probably would be a warmish system anyway unless it pulled a Jan 25, 2000. This one appears DOA unfortunately with too much going against it.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like signs of a split flow returning off the West Coast. Love that look on a means.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Just shot up to 32...assuming we are done with any additional frozen here for this one. Temp should continue to tick up overnight.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Just dropped to 30 here. Ice starting to coat everything. Eta: very light breeze out of the NE
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    If an area received a trace of snow every day for 2 months straight and that was it for the entire winter, how would that be tallied up? Is there a formula for how many traces make a tenth of an inch or something along those lines?
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Temp dropped to 31 here. Ice accumulating on cars, trees, and almost broke my neck on our new deck which is now ice covered. I would call it a 'glaze'. Not fit for man nor beast....dogs took one look and turned around back inside.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    There have certainly been times in the past where we were tracking a southern gulf low that never has a catalyst to take it North only to have the stj energy slow down and get picked up by a renegade northern jet shortwave. Doubt it happens here but who knows.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Farther N and the favored Valley areas will be more of a concern. Some of the mesos actually have it cooling back to below freezing overnight in spots.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I know the TPV anchored near Hudson's Bay is decent for cold as it can keep the trof in the GL, OV, NE and into the N Mid Atl. Doesnt that also 'usually' equate to a cold/dry pattern? I also tend to think clipper type pattern as well.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    We have been on the same page regarding the temps and the pac puke being brief. You are not alone.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    In layman's terms it's the el nino/la nina equivalent of the Indian Ocean. Eta: ninja'd by @WxUSAF
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