Ralph Wiggum

The euro at the end of the run looks a little like 0z GGEM with the NS energy zipping thru ushering in the CAA and a piece of stj energy hanging back. Obviously is a day slower than the GGEM thus the slower evolution. Might be setting up something for right around NYE.

Not tons of support for it but worth mentioning the period around Dec 30 when the pattern transition is underway has some potential. GFS showed it, Euro hinted at it (both trended towards phase in Plains=cutter), and now the GGEM is showing the northern jet steamrolling thru and leaving a stj sw behind that forms a slp and comes N. Verbatim the 850 low rides under us and is textbook track:

0z GGEM has the scenario I mentioned with the arctic jet racing out ahead and the left behind stj sw developing and coming N. GFS/Euro ops phase in the Plains=cutter. Maybe a period to keep an eye on.

We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change.

HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah.

Much prefer glancing cold shots over the PV diving into the OV. Later in mid Feb to late March that is fine, but often times all that accomplishes this time of year is to suppress the storm track and be dry and frigid cold. Also tends to moderate then have to reload the cold. You can argue that on the backside of a PV visit we can get a storm but more times than not we are looking at stale cold and a thump to blech situation. Not that I would kick any snow to the curb....just prefer the consistent glancing cold waves over one singular polar plunge.

Latest ens means 500mb pattern all in agreement now that the PAC puke pattern will be brief and a return to a favorable Atl then subsequently the PAC which (hopefully) will follow all begins to shift within 7-10 days. I apologize for the piss-poor artwork but key points here are the return and repeating of the Aleutian low and 50/50 low (red circles). Lower pressures in the stj with steering currents marked in black below ridging in Southern Canada. Magenta arrows showing ridging in the N Atl repeatedly moving into Scandinavia then back into the NAO region and in the West the looks of the EPO ridge trying to start rebuilding. If this background state reestablished we should also see a return to the split flow out West which we have seen more often than not since late October. Pac is ok, none of it is perfect or epic. But this overall look as we finish out the holidays is a nice step in the right direction if you are a fan of winter.

What a difference a day makes.

Good chance that period does in fact materialize. However looks like the euro has 2 potential threats leading up to that. Again....enjoy the relax/reload next 7 days or so.

Enjoy this relax/reload period for the next week to 10 days. Enjoy the holidays...family...the seasonal weather. Busy times ahead as the New Year approaches.

Just need this to hold for 16 days and we are good... What could possibly go wrong?

I have VHS tapes of the 2 back to back storms that month with news footage and home video material. Remember it well....nice pattern. I'm old.

Sometimes I feel these patterns and indices are being overcomplicated and possibly muddling the ability to make forecasts in a rational sense. I get the fact that to understand the science as a whole there is a need to delve deeper than the surface. But sometimes a back to basics approach isnt a bad thing. There just seems to be a plethora of A affects B which is affecting C which A isnt directly related to C but more a function of D that is equating to F that leads to G that has a profound affect on A that is......well now look, my coffee is cold.

SPV splitting. The TPV likely wont maintain singularity for long.

Cut the cord and get hulu live for all your local sports. That's what I did and it is worth the price. 55$ monthly is alot cheaper than cable and you seem to have better/more options with the hulu live.

Yep, split flow out West certainly works as the stj comes out of the Baja and the northern jet comes over the split straight out of the arctic via the PV. Hints of a hybrid 50/50 and some ridging in the eastern NAO region and Baffin Bay. Compared to where we start, to get there is a big step towards the good.

This isnt going to happen but it is showing the shutout pattern probably wont last very long.

I see nothing alarming there at all. Neutral look 'at worst' on all 3 moving ahead. The PAC is in a reload and will be meh for a week-10 days before the Aleutian low starts reestablishing and begins pumping an EPO ridge again. Not buying the TPV shifting to Santa's neighborhood and anchoring itself... not given what is happening at the Strat level with the pummeling of the SPV and squeeze play going on. And dont look now but we are seeing signals for a SWE specifically over Siberia starting in the medium range. I'm not an expert on how the strat and trop interact but I do know that when the SPV is under stress and/or there is warming over Siberia it is less likely for the TPV to strengthen and anchor itself over the N Pole as one entity. My honest feel moving forward? Enjoy this break....the pattern reload/relax....the holidays....family, friends, and a nice break from tracking (hasn't amounted to much but has been active since mid Nov). When the reload is complete in early January things are going be active and cold with plenty of tracking.

Spoke too soon? Did you see the latest EPS? Big steps in the right direction. Matches the tellie indices from CPC that look favorable. Definitely a meh pattern for the next 10 days but I dont think we are in a close the blinds pattern either headed into early January. Doubt we wait 3 weeks but 12-15 days is possible. I'm still having a tough time trusting ens means past 10 days given last year's debacle as well as the flops within 8 days this fall and early met winter.

Listening to this on vinyl at the moment. Seems sort of apropos after that 12z GEFS run:

At least we are moving the anomalous recent trends of December warmth closer to prime climo time so we can save on heating bills

It is not a bad look. Certainly isnt 'epic' but like Bob always says, epic patterns on the means dont automatically equal snowstorms. By hour 200 you can already see the ridge N of Hawaii getting squashed in favor of an Aleutian low trying to rebuild. Scandinavian ridge which PSU says is usually a key indicator of the NAO building is present. The 50/50 region continues to have lower pressures. Is not a bad look and is miles away from the EPS and yesterday's GEFS mean which had people jumping. Anad again, these developments are under 240 hours so maybe not fantasy range.

GEFS mean 500mb is very nice this morning. Maybe just a hiccup yesterday?

Just had an emergency alert wake me for a snow squall warning. That's a new one. Looked outside and whiteout conditions. Good stuff.