Ralph Wiggum

Stop hugging the surface maps. H5 argues strongly against this, especially the ens mean.

I dont consider myself knowledgeable on the 10hPa PV. In layman's terms, what does this weakening SPV translate to down in the trop? These SSWE's are discussed ad nauseum every year anymore it seems, but why? I know we can't say what it means for particular regions, but is it safe to assume with SPV weakening the PV doesn't allow it to 'stack vertically' over the Arctic Circle and can thus cause more displacing of the TPV and lobes to freely roam and wobble around rather than just remain anchored and stationary well to the N? Thanks.

Same to you and your family Paul

HH might be close to a weenie run look towards the end in fantasy range. Regardless, certainly alot more possibilities than last year at this time. Exciting times ahead.

Monster east based nao block, 50/50. Pac side is meh....broad US trof. Would work tho with ao blocking and most of the country cold already. Plenty of time.

That would be heavy downpours transitioning to marshmallow bombs with accums.

18z GFS says maybe some fresh anafront accums morning of the 25th for you. Not a reliable setup but who knows....we've had anafront snows twice already soooo.

Euro has been sniffing that one for a few runs now laying down light accums. Ironically 12z today was the first run it backed off.

No surprises there given the looks headed into the last week of Dec.

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

For being a Nina, sure are seeing a fair amount of STJ disturbances moving across in the LR.

Seeing mention of anafront snows for next week. They rarely work out....most here know this. However, in my area NW of Philly we have had 2 anafront snows already this season. We almost never see it. Neither was anything to write home about. What's my point? There is a tendency already this winter for those anafront scenarios to work. If there was a year we could score on the backside of a front with a wave trailing, this is probably the one.

Yes

CMC is icy

JMA and CMC want to hang energy back over TX midweek as Arctic front presses thru the Northeast. Both move a low out of the Mississippi Valley around Christmas day.

JMA is on board for a wintry threat on Christmas Day. In the CMC camp holding energy back in TX while arctic front swings thru then bringing a low out of the Mississippi Valley.

Euro has some light snow for Monday night.

12 CMC in the LR has a low forming in the Mississippi Valley with a strong dome of arctic HP over Eastern Canada. Gives a threatening icy look for 2nd part of Christmas Day.

Taking a mental rest for a few days. Brain is tired....I forgot how exhausting this hobby can be at times! Soooo, when's the next threat?

Prior to the flip to sleet, I measured 6" of fluff here in Warminster. I cleared the measuring board and woke to an additional 2.75" of fresh snow/sleet on the board Does that count as a grand total of 8.75" then? Just trying to be accurate.

I keep expectations in check especially when being bullseyed at 5+ days out and this early in the season.

Very pleased with this one. Mid-December and a very traditional winter storm around these parts...thump, mix, slot....maybe a few flakes to wrap things up later. We usually see 2 or 3 of these on avg every season. Im fine with having one under our belts before the solstice. We're on the board and on our way!

6" fluff before the flip. The sleet is factored as liquid equivalent I assume? But at what ratio?

Warm punch was modeled on the NAM since Sunday actually. Most of us shrugged it off as the NAM at range but it led the way....again.