Ralph Wiggum

@Ji This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :

While likely partially out to lunch, the ICON is rolling the ridge East in lieu of the amplifying -PNA. I'll save surface extrapolation for the die hards

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

12z should give us some clarity on the situation /s

That dry slot looks damaging Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.

Is that the Nina looks that several have stated January is evolving towards? Ie ridge N of Hawaii extending towards the Aleutians and West Coast trof?

Amazing. That block is reminiscent of the epic NAO blocks we saw at range last year that kept fading. This will be the look that holds tho and probably ends up being even stronger lol. Block near Scandinavia isnt bad but need that to move into the NAO region.

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?

Positive signs today...jumpers please step back from the ledge.

I do need a new lens script, so you're not wrong. I saw Jan 6 gfs surface had a low flare up along a front and create a wide stripe.of snow in the interior then saw the euro a day later showed similar farther S. Could see how that resembles the late Jan 25-26 look. Overall pattern tho looks like we are backing into that window and will require some much needed luck.

Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.

EPO ridge in Western Canada is pouring cold in (follow the lines from the Arctic Circle into the Plains) then the flow continues around the bottom of the trof in the East which is the PV anchored over Greenland. With no ridging in the N Atl the flow is fast/progressive with nothing to buckle and slow it down which again, this is a smoothed means but implies a general cold and fast flow with no big storm signal. Of course we could get a clipper out of that look so maybe not bone dry but not a big storm look.

Not that it matters on a smoothed over means 6 weeks out but verbatim that is a cold / dry look and very progressive with no slowing mechanism in the Atl. The Pac and Atl dont like playing nice together anymore.

Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....

I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.

It really pretty much is the norm that we dont get much appreciable snows until after mid January tbh. The seasons where we have significant snow before mid Jan are unusual and are rare. Still a reasonable expectation that both of our respective regions end up with average to just above average snowfall when all is said and done. Now if we get to Valentines Day and we are still under a couple of inches to date then I will reconsider what I just typed. For now, we wait.

Look at this loop...the SE ridge is about to go apesh!t and the trof out West is anchoring in.

Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.

Talk about a role reversal....how about a high coming out of the GOM attacking a banana low anchored over the NE. Cant say I've seen anything like that anytime recently

Even in the worst patterns during winter there are always windows. I'm not sure we ever get an extended period of good looks...maybe, who knows. I think as I said before we are in for a roller coaster with everything but the kitchen sink coming. Mild stretches, bitter cold shots, flooding rains, ice storms late Jan into Feb, a blizzard, thunder, etc. The pattern has that topsy turvy feel to it and we are seeing the PV migrating around and flexing. Its akin to spinning the roulette wheel....gotta play big to win big.

US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR. Funny how that works. Tuning up the lawnmower today. Maybe reverse psychology can help lol.

Aside from a brief few days of BN weather next weekend, the ens means are torchy the entire run with even greater widespread anomalous warmth closer towards the end. 500mb pattern is essentially complete opposite of what we would be looking for and we are quickly losing that 'workable' appearance. SE Ridge is firing and that central PAC ridge and Aleutian ridge are anchored. No way to say it nicely....it is what it is.

Picked up a hot insider tip a short while ago that Panic Room rates will be doubling and tripling in the next few days.

We've been in a +NAO since Dec 1 start of met winter. EPS has a raging +NAO still going at 240 hours. Do you think the NAO will still eventually tank so low to skew the mean negative by the end of winter?

https://www.foxnews.com/us/2019-weather-moments-polar-vortex-hurricane-dorian-bomb-cyclone-midwest-flooding-tornado LOL. PV big news for the year!