Ralph Wiggum

My children (8 and 10) have been spoiled with the big snows and seem to just shrug off the 'normal' 3-6" events which are typically our big snows during an avg season. Like father like children lol.

Wait, no KU storms during this crud Pac pattern? Wth....I was planning for another snowmageddon and thought this was the window of opportunity

Same. Mine also think I somehow control when it will snow. Ironically they already had 1 snow day back in early Dec and we never saw a flake lol. Kids these days

Fyp

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.

CFS is all EPO driven late Jan into early Feb with zero Atl/NAO blocking. There is the Scan ridge mid Jan but that fades fast. It goes about developing the EPO much differently than what some of the ens means imply. CFS progresses the Pac ridge into the West coast while anchoring and strengthening the PV near Baffin Bay. The ens means suggest the Pac ridge and Western trof retrograde. The ens dont go out as far. This is something PSU discussed the other day discussing progression vs retrogression of the driving Pac ridge. I could see how as the ens means try and build a ridge bridge over the top it would support the retrograde signal. Hoping the CFS is wrong tbh as it keeps delaying the better pattern.

There looks to be a light at the end of this tunnel/god awful pattern. Starting to see subtle changes by 200 hours which has been slowly creeping closer in time. While I dont think THIS is the change yet, the extension of the Pac ridge into the AO region and the building of a Scandinavian ridge are all precursors to a hopeful positive shift in the pattern by roughly mid month. Latest GEFS and EPS both agree on the look and a return to colder anomalies in the Eastern US. EPS a little slower than the GEFS and noticed this may be in part to the EPS focusing more on nosing the Pac ridge slower and the GFS building and moving the Scan ridge into the AO regions faster. Basically timing differences but headed toward a similar progression. We could still accidentally back into a snow event during this lousy pattern over the next week which is somewhat head-scratching given the overall look. Any other year it would be a shutout/close the blinds scenario. This increases my confidence that once the current crud pattern transitions it may not take much to get things going for our region in terms of tracking winter events. Confidence in winter showing up again by mid month just in time for prime climo is increasing.

In one of my posts this morning I alluded to how this trend might not be the perfect or ideal look just yet BUT we are getting some help finally on the Atl side irt the Scandinavian ridge/block. Moving forward we not only are seeing the active 50/50 region that has been with us seemingly since Oct but we are seeing that building Atl ridge anchoring the 50/50 in place. If THAT is step one towards the better look, better chances, and a convoluted pattern I will take that look to bed with me monday thru saturday and twice on sunday.

Doesnt dig the ULL as much and trof is more positively tilted and progressive.

When do we double down? 12z?

@showmethesnow agree with you...decent 'potential' for an event especially Eastern points. Your analysis is on-point as always. Only thing with the Euro family, we saw some similar lead ups 3rd week November and 2nd week December events. I'm skeptical of the Euro. Might be doing it again where it is showing us best case scenario then will level off or even degrade slightly within 60 hours. Hoping the favorable trends continue but hesitant to go all in just yet. I could see some areas getting rain to fat wet flakes tho fo sho.

Scandinavian ridging really beginning to flex and show some staying power on the GEFS. It actually looks to help keep a general 50/50 present most of the run. We take.

EPS and GEFS continue the trend for some higher heights in the AO region beginning by ~ 200 hours. If you look at the delta changes over the past 4 or 5 runs those rises have been notable. Now whether that is a passing thing from the TPV wobble or might be a sign of some changes moving forward in the overall hemi pattern not sure. But thought that was worth mentioning anyway since that is a key area where we hope to see some signs of changes as we move ahead. Eta: did a little more digging and it appears to my old eyes that the Central Pac ridge is actually aiding in the development I mentioned by trying to feed rising heights into that region. There is a signal among ens members also that the extension into the AO tries and form a quasi ridge bridge across the Pole into Scandinavia (gefs faster and more aggressive). This isnt fantasy range as it is beginning just under 200 hours now. That wouldnt be a terrible look and certainly something to watch.

I agree with all of this. Only thing of note I dont like which I didnt see mentioned is the LP near Lake Superior. You know those GL lows love to mess with us. Column is good enough tho as u said to at least start as snow. I just have a thing for lp near the Lakes.

I like this wording. So you are interested....borderline 'very' interested. What is level 3 after 'very'? Asking for a comrade.

Only conjecture at this range and who's to say the GEFS are right...but the colder 850 anomalies are sliding East at the end of the run. It is a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

We can only hope: Eta:GEFS has a more smoothed over -AO look but the signal is there at least.

You might be making s'mores in the snow says the GFS. New year. New attitude.

Chance of snow on the euro/eps this weekend. Another chance for a storm around the 8th.

Happy New Year everyone!!! Had a 10 minute snow shower on the way to work this morning around 530AM. That in and of itself is a sign 2020 will be a great all around year!

We can only hope the LR GEFS is sniffing out some light at the end of this dreaded tunnel. For the 5th or 6th run in a row is slowly nosing the central Pac ridge up into the EPO region and now showing ridging trying to extend across the pole and over into Scandinavia with a weaker SE Ridge reflection as well. Signs of the 50/50 returning. Isnt ideal, isnt perfect, and yes it is way out in fantasy land but trying to find something....anything. Haven't seen the EPS yet.

I have another question about this winter.....are you ever going to answer our questions about this winter? I guess you technically never did say you would answer them so there's that.

18z GEFS say nah....we're going full blown Eastern torch same time. That GEFS run was a trainwreck. Some ridging from the massive central Pac ridge trying to nose into the EPO region so there's that but even so any effects we would incur seem to be farther down the line.

Towards the end of the GEFS way out in fantasy land the W displaced EPO ridge is trying to build and nose closer to the AO region fwiw. Not the Atl side you mentioned but maybe a needle in a haystack positive coming out of that Pac ridge anyway.