Ralph Wiggum

Ok

Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico:

I like how on the HH GFS op the monster Pac ridge bubble spawns an ULL out of nowhere lol:

Hit 60 here and watch the snowflakes fly within 5 days. Interestingly there is a small window that keeps showing up centered around the 17th.

Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl. Oops sorry wrong sub.

Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool.

C-2" sounds about right. We do these small events well. Nickel and diming is our thing.

Well this is falling apart quickly. Wasnt the slp running west of the cities just 36 hours ago or so?

That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail.

The wheels appear to be in motion.

Better than "epic unicorns".

Euro and CMC are decent hits for parts of SE PA. Euro is 3" up this way, the CMC focuses the better snows S of the TP. NAM trended better also. Officially has my attention.

Well, every time the Euro has trended better up till 60 hours while other guidance played the role of Dr No we have failed, so there's that. Maybe the roles are reversed for this one?

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth.

I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time.....

Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old.

I wouldnt hold my breath on winter's return. Trying to remain optimistic but the ens keep pushing the PAC ridge breakdown and any NAO help farther and farther down the line.

Here is a small glimmer of something during this blah pattern. NAM at range but has some support among guidance. We can hope for some white rain anyway. Doubt we would see any accums with temps in the mid and upper 30s but flakes nonetheless. It's all we have.

I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that.

Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead.

Might touch 60 up here next weekend maybe kiss 70 in Cape May per Euro. Light at the end of the tunnel is starting to dim. We can hope for 60 and some Wiggum snows anyway.

Saw my first ladybug this morning. Feels like March.

Throw it on the barby

If there is one plus to the AN temp regime it is coinciding with the spike in oil prices. Less heating oil is good for me!