Ralph Wiggum

I've seen this song and dance before. I hear exactly what you are saying.

Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL!

Most guidance continues to trend this farther N with a torch BL in and around SE PA even to Lancaster. Being this is such a fast mover (3-4 houes?) I'm wondering just how much accumulating snow the region will actually see especially South and East of say Morgantown PA. While it's nice to see the NAM overdo qpf again it is basically by itself. The more realistic snow depth maps on the NAM which I find to be VERY accurate in these marginal events support the c-2" idea I suggested....leaning low end of that from say Pottstown S and E. Latest hrrr rolled in while typing and has trended warmer and is essentially a nothing burger for the area and has trending support among other guidance. Not impressed. Will be thrilled to see an hour of white rain thumpage and a quick coating of slush here before the system pulls away.

Depends on the pattern. For example will the one 20" storm stick around or is it coming between torches? The 10 - 2"ers....polar cold all month long with snow on snow? The 2 - 10"ers....back to back within a few days then done? Is it cold enough to stick around for a bit? I'm picky like that. I will take the 20" snowstorm in between moderate periods. Let that sh!t melt within a week or so. Cruddy stale snow sucks. Plus if inbetween moderation it would be a nice treat. I also like the idea of 10 - 2" systems tbh if it is going to be BN temps the entire month. 2" of snow every 3 days to freshen things up and only needing a broom? I can live with that. I'm not sure about the 4 - 5" storms. Sounds tempting but do I really feel like getting off my ass to snowblow once a week? Yes....yes I would lol. 2 - 10" storms. You are the weakest link!

NAM is finally getting a clue imo. A s/w and slp track like the NAM has shown along with the forcing shouldn't have been drying out like it was showing prior to the 18z runs. Maybe overdone on totals(?) but the qpf depiction given what I mentioned finally make sense. It's not like it's running into a dry 1059mb hp wedge.

This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat:

NAM 12k from 0z is inline with my thoughts a general c-2" event. Should be rippage for a period as well per the NAM. Has some good forcing moving thru the region.

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

7 snow events so far this season for a grand total of 2.4" We do nickel and dime very well around these parts.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

Some people did some things. You know how that goes.

Where are you seeing the MJO forecasts for emerging into 7/8? Having a hard time finding it. All MJO forecasts I see bring it high amplitude 4/5 killing the amplitude quickly in 6 then back into the cod. Thanks.

Big jump N on the ICON. Disregard the thermals:

True story

He is amazing.

GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge

OP at range but the Pac death puke blob from Hades is displaced and waning by the end.

North American trof I think unless he like the look of a massive negative SD near the Eastern NAO.

Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere.

Ok

Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico: