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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Better signs moving forward across ALL ens means even if progressing in somewhat differing ways. Looks like a transitional period upcoming centered around Jan 17. I could see the last 10 days or so of the month getting very active, cold, and wintry in this region.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty tight clustering and strong agreement there. Actually took a step back from a few days ago.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Ended with .3" le in the gauge. Light coating of slush on decks and cars.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Heaviest snow of the night in Warminster. 32F.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe this could overperform after all? If the quick drying back edge on some guidance is wrong maybe we can.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Out in Blue Bell we just started as snow
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    DPs arent the problem now for yours and my area. Moisture is. 850 forcing is well S and E into DE and is headed to S NJ and East while drying out the back edge. Eta: we will get some rippage for an hour or so anyway. Was hoping for the Rare overperformer but I'm not sure this is the one. Nowcast time I guess.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    You can see on radar the best lift is staying to the South and East. 18Z 12k NAM fwiw:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Hrrr, for all the slack it got earlier here and in other subs, is verifying rather well with the r/s line comparing to current nexrad loops and reports around Lancaster, Morgantown, etc. Oh well, maybe the GFS op is onto something with the window Jan 17-20.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    WWA was warranted I do not disagree with that at all. Their wording about slick travel on point.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM is very warm. Guidance continues with weaker low, weaker 850 lift, and warmer bl. Low deepens but later after best lift is well past the Del River. Hrrr might be overdone but it is gaining support. Expectations are low.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Every second that ticks by, the sun angle is increasing. It's true, I read it online. Summer solstice cant get here fast enough. /s
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Could see some snow squalls during the day on Wednesday. If you believe the hrrr verbatim, some areas see more snow from the squalls than from the event tonight.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    12z NAM coming in line with other guidance. Hrrr is still very warm much like the rgem....definitely has me raising an eyebrow as snow will be rate dependent for the most part. HRRR is a nonevent essentially. GL everyone...set your expectations very low with this one and maybe hope for a small surprise :
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    They are looking for an 'angle' to support their fears. See what I did there?
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    @Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    This "4 Year Memory" popped up in my FB feed this morning. Not a bad job sniffing things out well in advance. Was just off a few days once it slowed things down. It may have even been the lp near TX and old Mexico that ended up being the storm:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.
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