Ralph Wiggum

GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland

I could certainly see the workable pattern being pushed back in real time. Most changes happen slower than forecast in the LR so we shall see. I mentioned either here or in the MA sub about a week ago that some of the ens looks and weeklies later in the month have more of an icy look than a white snowy one irt the SE ridge still being present and a piece of the PV still evident in E and SE Canada. Of course synoptic detail are irrelevant at this range but the 'looks' are evident on many of the LR stuff. Hoping to avoid a JF 94 redux for any length of time.

Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.

Better signs moving forward across ALL ens means even if progressing in somewhat differing ways. Looks like a transitional period upcoming centered around Jan 17. I could see the last 10 days or so of the month getting very active, cold, and wintry in this region.

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

Pretty tight clustering and strong agreement there. Actually took a step back from a few days ago.

8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh.

Ended with .3" le in the gauge. Light coating of slush on decks and cars.

Heaviest snow of the night in Warminster. 32F.

Maybe this could overperform after all? If the quick drying back edge on some guidance is wrong maybe we can.

Out in Blue Bell we just started as snow

Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.

DPs arent the problem now for yours and my area. Moisture is. 850 forcing is well S and E into DE and is headed to S NJ and East while drying out the back edge. Eta: we will get some rippage for an hour or so anyway. Was hoping for the Rare overperformer but I'm not sure this is the one. Nowcast time I guess.

You can see on radar the best lift is staying to the South and East. 18Z 12k NAM fwiw:

Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.

Hrrr, for all the slack it got earlier here and in other subs, is verifying rather well with the r/s line comparing to current nexrad loops and reports around Lancaster, Morgantown, etc. Oh well, maybe the GFS op is onto something with the window Jan 17-20.

WWA was warranted I do not disagree with that at all. Their wording about slick travel on point.

RGEM is very warm. Guidance continues with weaker low, weaker 850 lift, and warmer bl. Low deepens but later after best lift is well past the Del River. Hrrr might be overdone but it is gaining support. Expectations are low.

Every second that ticks by, the sun angle is increasing. It's true, I read it online. Summer solstice cant get here fast enough. /s

Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.

Could see some snow squalls during the day on Wednesday. If you believe the hrrr verbatim, some areas see more snow from the squalls than from the event tonight.

12z NAM coming in line with other guidance. Hrrr is still very warm much like the rgem....definitely has me raising an eyebrow as snow will be rate dependent for the most part. HRRR is a nonevent essentially. GL everyone...set your expectations very low with this one and maybe hope for a small surprise :

They are looking for an 'angle' to support their fears. See what I did there?

@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.