Ralph Wiggum

Get something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent and strong signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon:

Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji

Very different look

GEFS is move SE for next weekend. Not there yet but better ridging out W and a flatter SE ridge.

I can clearly see a way we quickly exit the workable pattern and return to the late Dec->mid Jan look. Base states almost always find a way to gain their grip back.

Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense

This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern.

Gfs likely too fast with the change....probably the follow up system that will bring smiles all around Jan 20-24 range. Eta: but of course the GFS op is trying to overwhelm the pattern with cold so we play the patiently waiting game for now and see how the NS flow evolves

Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS. I honestly expected more digital fantasy snowstorms on the FV3/GFS this year. It is staying in its lane so far for the most part.

This isnt a bad look. 50/50, ridging nosing into GL, elongated/splitting PV, ridging S Central Canada near HB and nosing SE, neutral PNA, ull or vort pass near region.

EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad.

That is actually a really good idea.

Camp 2 seems most likely given the progression we are seeing in the overall N Hemi teleconnections. Fairly certain the current meh pattern will begin to progress into something more workable as the strong N central PAC ridge begins to migrate/extend into the EPO region allowing for continental cold air intrusions. With the said, the PAC will still continue to rule to show. While the Scandinavian ridge will eventually attempt to bridge across the AO region and provide a favorable window, it appears to the me the theme of transient Atl and HL features will continue on well into mid February while the more stable mid lat features may return to their base state (-pna/central PAC ridge/se ridge). When the EPO ridge wanes we will once again be dependent on transient blocking/ridging on the Atl side for windows. Not surprising we arent getting a sustained favorable pattern but rather windows of opportunity. Better than a complete shutout look. Tbh I can see us transitioning to cold and dry early Feb before the EPO ridge relaxes and things return to hostile in the N central PAC.

CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb.

Why are we in banter talking actual weather?

Been showing on the ensembles for what seems like a week now. Pattern changing long wave centered around the 17th, threat window Jan 20-24...very active and cold look.

12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now.

Getting closer to reaching 8/1 maybe with some high amplitude.

Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL.

That's quite the progression of the Pac ridge blob into the EPO and moving into the AO towards the end of the OP run. Usual caveat...it's an op run at range but that's one way to potentially make Feb a very memorable one. I also like how the Pac death ridge was replaced with a strong trof.

Caps-Flyers always a competitive rivalry throughout the years. Flyers had a horrible road trip. I'm sure being back home tonight helped.

No southern sliders. Said a few times already these looks have an icy/mix feel to them.

I want to walk across the bridge.

GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland

I could certainly see the workable pattern being pushed back in real time. Most changes happen slower than forecast in the LR so we shall see. I mentioned either here or in the MA sub about a week ago that some of the ens looks and weeklies later in the month have more of an icy look than a white snowy one irt the SE ridge still being present and a piece of the PV still evident in E and SE Canada. Of course synoptic detail are irrelevant at this range but the 'looks' are evident on many of the LR stuff. Hoping to avoid a JF 94 redux for any length of time.