Ralph Wiggum

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening:

Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N just off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter....thump to mix. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run.

Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240

Mentioned on another forum earlier that I can see this whole pattern evolution to a workable look actually be relatively short-lived. Transitioning from the Pac death blob ridge/SE ridge/-PNA (cutters) pattern to a HUGE epo ridge and no SE Ridge (cold/dry...think suppressed or off the coast). Could honestly see Jan 18-25 being the window between patterns that could produce. Now of course this is assuming we go where I mentioned. Been skeptical of locking in to something favorable for a while and mentioned before these 'windows' could end up being our real chances. Even if so, we could still reach climo averages so Im not poo pooing on where we are headed. Guess I'm exercising cautious optimism as it is so hard to get sustained favorable patterns and we should take our threats one by one and savor.

Anyone else licking their chops at the tail end of that run?? Plenty of chances ahead. Would be happy cashing in on just 1 half decent warning criteria event. Is that asking too much?

GFS bias....too cold, overpowering ns. Extrapolation adjustments say not to worry. /s

GFS HH op is only a few minor adjustments from a complete weenie run days 7 forward. Interested in the GEFS.

Jan 21-25 is the one imo. Next weekend sets the stage. Strong signals on ens for that period and now ops sniffing something...maybe glue, not sure yet.

Yep, the infamous epic unicorn looks across the board on all ens, weeklies, tellies, etc. It was a fail proof look all around and it was only 10+ days away. Never forget.

Should we temper expectations at all since this is still 10+ days out and we are seeing alot of shuffling around still or are we diving in headfirst?

I feel like that split has been there since early fall when I was researching data for my winter outlook. Talk about a recurring theme!

I have never seen that before on a LR weeklies chart....ever.

Get something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent and strong signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon:

Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji

Very different look

GEFS is move SE for next weekend. Not there yet but better ridging out W and a flatter SE ridge.

Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense

This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern.

Gfs likely too fast with the change....probably the follow up system that will bring smiles all around Jan 20-24 range. Eta: but of course the GFS op is trying to overwhelm the pattern with cold so we play the patiently waiting game for now and see how the NS flow evolves

Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS. I honestly expected more digital fantasy snowstorms on the FV3/GFS this year. It is staying in its lane so far for the most part.

This isnt a bad look. 50/50, ridging nosing into GL, elongated/splitting PV, ridging S Central Canada near HB and nosing SE, neutral PNA, ull or vort pass near region.

EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad.

CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb.

12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now.