Ralph Wiggum

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging.

Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general.

Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold.

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.

Merry Christmas fantasy range tease

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently.

Same here. Overwhelmed with holiday deliveries and the Monday snow event up that way will do it.

Still eyeing the window centered around the 14th give or take 2 days either side for our next potential threat. Tellies in the PAC and AO regions are favorable...Atl side is meh but workable. Stj gets active and now the ops are beginning to show some specific systems in the time. PV sideswipes the region with moisture trying to attack the CAD that has been established. To phase or not to phase and timing/temp issues obviously. Way out there but something to watch as ens and now ops beginning to wake up. Here's the 6z GFS take. Mind you the euro is amped in Ohio so keep expectations in check for now. GfS has that same OV low. Without a true N Atl/Greenland block this setup is going to be difficult to force the slp off the coast. Favors more of a CAD to start thump to mix/rain scenario.

Picked up one tenth of an inch of snow this morning.

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful. Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power.

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op.

Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

Bomb Cyclone

@The Iceman Hey, I'm really liking the Flyers core and youth. Should actually make a push this year. Farabee and Frost are exciting. Myers on D has been a welcome piece. TK playing well. Most vets playing solid. I still think Jake needs to go. Losing faith in Ghost too. But I am hearing Patrick is progressing nicely and may return sooner than later.

Any non weather related stuff and/or general banter that may derail the actual obs and weather threads goes here.

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

But what about urban heat island effect? If it comes close to Miami for example it should ramp up to a Cat 6 with all that lift and convection and stuff no?

So does the NAM past 30 hours trash apply in the summer the same as with winter storms? 12k NAM stalls Dorian near Bahamas and implies a possible loop/recurve. But it's the NAM at range so we toss it right?

Why is it inevitable that comparisons to Andrew and Hugo are made any time a SE US landfalling cane threat occurs? Every. Single. Time.

HMON hates Miami

Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign.

I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right.

Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W.

Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to.