CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2.
Agreed. And right on the heels...nary a break in between. CMC tries to phase another piece of the PV into the back of the trof now too. This is escalating quickly. Go to bed before Dr No comes in.
Damn! The CMC is so close to phasing in a second lobe of the PV extension on the backside of the trof now. I dont think any other model is showing this tho.
Looking at thermals, NAM actually was quite a bit warmer. ICON just came in way N c-2" for most S of I-80. I don't think we are done with the ticks N and warming yet either.
18z Euro is 3-6" here in Central Bucks. Mostly all snow.
2-4" here in Warminster area with 5" lollis is my first guess (more sleet = lower end, all snow = higher end of range with the 5" spots). 1-3" south of TP with mixing issues. Subject to change.
Most of Southern part of PA was about to get NAM'd at 18z but the run ended right as it was ramping up. Setup looks like it would be all or majority snow.
Comical...GFS/GEFS and CMC/GEPS were lax yesterday with the late week system where the Euro/EPS were honking. Today they completely reverse roles...GFS/CMC families honking more than the Euro/EPS from yesterday while the Euro/EPS crap the bed completely. You can't make this stuff up.