Ralph Wiggum

Agreed. Just good to see that trend stop and even reverse. Maybe windshield wiper effect or maybe going to continue. Up next....rgem.

12z NAM stopped the trend and came in colder....so thats refreshing for anyone who put stock in the NAM at range last day or so. Eta: upon farther inspection actually took a sizeable move to the rgem wrt track and intensity

What concerns me is the sw energy continues to be sampled stronger which yields a more amped system. I think this trend is real irt the sw strength. We see this alot when energy comes onshore out West. Our saving grace/hope for i95 is going to be the 50/50, confluence, and hp ... whether those can hold and help counter the strengthening slp. RGEM says we can do it. EPS says nope im gonna dislodge the blocking and 50/50. Fun times.

So the RGEM, GFS, and GEFS tick SE but the NAM, Euro and EPS are ticking NW. Talk about a split. My money is 55/45 in favor of the latter group with the end result being near the middle with a lean to the Euro.

6z Euro followed the NAM...mixing into the LV. So like the op said, rgem is likely out to lunch. Going to be intense banding somewhere N and W tho.

Rgem is probably closer wrt the banding features than most globals. Just a matter of pinpointing where.

GEFS continues to tick SE. Not sure how reliable the ens are at a 60 hr range.

6z NAM vs 6z RGEM:

On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between?

Not sure I trust the GFS for qpf depiction. Always seems tight with gradients and less expansive than say the Euro or the mesos in that regard. Tends to run drier overall as well.

GFS is another dumping for us. No red flags, steady as she goes. Eta: Light snow thru Thursday evening wow. 24 hrs+

Better track for DC and BWI this run. I wouldn't put much stock into banding or lack thereof on the gfs global. Wait for mesos to get in range. Great trend for my Southern friends imo.

HP doing its dirty work. Filthy!

GFS is going to make friends tonight.

My wife said that to me once.....and now 2 kids later.

A few steps below the major models (GFS, EURO, CMC) but one step above the jv models (NAVGEM, JMA). Probably could be compared to the ukie. It is notorious for screwing up thermals and doesn't show mixing....either snow or rain. Use it for general guidance and to see which other models it trends towards and that can provide some useful clues for forecasting.

RGEM is insane for SE PA. Epic banding. 24" lolli a few miles from me. Saving this map for archival purposes. Doubt that even comes close.

ICON is an improvement. Stronger better positioned hp/CAD...thus colder. Starting to come around to other guidance finally.

I wouldn't rule out the mix line getting to my area in Central Bucks but there will be enough moisture to provide snow depth prior to AND after the mix line punches thru then falls back. And that's still an IF the line gets this far N and W.

Every other model is at least 10" here conservatively and the NAM is widespread 1-4" PHL, Delco, Chester, Montco, and Bucks? Ok.

The NAM either needs to be retired or is dire need of an upgrade. When was the last major upgrade aside from adding the 3k resolution? At range the 12k is horrid.

That silly model is hell bent on giving us a major sleet event. All by itself it appears. Im fairly certain we can chalk it up to the NAM doing typical NAM stuff at range. If you follow the 500mb vorticity maps and compare with 18z there are improvements until about hour 54 irt slightly better confluence, slower departing hp, and better organization/tilt to the bowling ball coming across the Plains. Then at 54 hrs the surface gets all wonky. By this time tomorrow we should have a classic NAMming under our belts....I thought we were headed there just now until it got whack with the slp placement running into a deeper and better positioned hp.

It sure does!! Still has that damn subsidence thing right over my area in Central Bucks. Different than the dry slot we saw progged earlier. This looks like a subsidence zone behind the area of insane frontogenic lifting. Going to be tough to nail that area down. I mean would it matter that much though we are talking the difference between 20" and 13" lol. At this point after the past few years I'm quite happy with a Warning criteria system.

GEFS are moist.

New thread started. I'll take the heat if its jinxed.