Ralph Wiggum

Changeover to non-snow precip almost always happens sooner than modeled.

Not sure what you saw but didnt appear as a step back to my eyes at all. Much deeper CAD that run and much less influence from a weakening primary. Gonna be messy this weekend.

Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps.

Euro next week is hinting KU type system. Not quite there yet at the surface this run but 500mb maps are honking. Eta: read that the EPS are not impressed

Euro is a solid thump then changeover. The CMC and GFS are solid hits and trending to no flip to rain. Fun times ahead.

Should we still not bother? Whatcha thinking?

Agreed....and 5 days away still. Seeing better trends at 6z and already at 12z irt slp placement, hp placement and strength. Hoping we can trend to the better or remain stable and not back down leading up to the event. Tracking helmet and goggles on!

ICON has a 1047 high near quebec at 108. Stronger depiction past few runs anyway.

Sounds about right, even the Euro spits out about 8" here tho not all is snow. What we are seeing however especially in the ens is a weaker primary, less of a move into upstate NY (remember models had this into Quebec province a few days ago), and a stronger signal for a coastal wave developing east of the DelMarVa becoming the primary. Something to keep an eye on as the weaker primary and better redevelopment reflection is in response to the ridging up top which when we saw this in late Nov into early Dec killed the primary faster. Will be interesting to see how that feature plays out now in prime climo. Guessing many W of i95 and N of the m/d line see at least a few inches of pure thump snows before changing over IF these looks hold and dont morph into something completely different at 500mb.

Better choice for subscription service weatherbell, weathermodels, or is there one I am overlooking? Looking for access to detailed ens members primarily. @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman

When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks.

People in the Carolinas must be licking their chops at the LR ens.

12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen.

Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle?

I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip.

Run at 60 again next weekend?

Actually it was worse.

If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week......

Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good:

Not sure what's worse....this game or the ICON taking the primary well into Quebec at 986mb

It isnt over yet.

Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.

It's only the ICON, I expect it to torch next weekend. Oh, the game, right.

Wow!

How are the Ravens playing from behind this season? I would assume they weren't in that situation too often?