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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Was sort of surprised to not see the 18z nam brought up. Is it because it's the NAM? Anyway, complete frozen event now i95 N and W. Even ends as snow. Really curious to see if the NAN is handling the CAD better than globals and what the mesos do as we get into range.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Appears to be an isobaric camel dropping a deuce off the DelMarVa coast. Not sure what implications that would have if any.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Sad reality is last year by this time we at least had a few small storms. This year...nada.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM doing its thing. Mesos getting in range. Maybe better pickup of cad? Almost entirely a frozen event here on NAM with lots of pingers:
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm guilty of looking ahead at times but in this pattern with a fast NS with transient HL ridging we will benefit from focusing on 240 and under (180 and under better) and taking one wave / system at a time. Surprises tend to pop up with these looks next 5 day to a week.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Latest MJO trend is backing down...much less amplification and fast return to cod.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Remember the 12-16" wxsim forecast?
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Focusing medium range. Clipper-type disturbance at 138-144. Not sure if it will keep showing up or even stay together in the fast NS flow but basically all we have in the medium range.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Crap, I riled up the weenies with the Pepperidge Farm thing/wording. @WxWatcher007 I prefer cash but a blank check will suffice, ty
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    @psuhoffman You asked (maybe sarcastically?) if I thought there was anything worth discussing under 240. I mentioned the one stronger NS vort some models are picking up on around 132-144 hours. Going to be a challenge until under 4 days and may end up being nothing, but since you posed the question and there really isnt much else going on. Maybe we can get this under us in some way, shape, or form tbd.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Clipper type system around day 6/7 then of course the stj wave day 10ish. Surface reflection of day 6/7 is meh tho we know clippers are lighter precip and also we sometimes dont see better reflection until under 4 days.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Key features are displaced just enough that the systems are either just off the coast, squashed to the S, or like this weekend system during the brief relaxes in the cold flow. That's my take from analyzing the LR. We might benefit from returning to focusing under 240 in this pattern.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Split out West should continue with little to no Atl blocking. Not a big dog (that's my therapy dog btw) look but I could see us score overrunning chances coming from energy undercutting the SW moving across and thru the bottom of the PV flow. But trying to nail the NS down specifically and spot something in the LR probably.wont work for us. Going to be a waiting game most likely and picking up on something under 5 days.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    We need more windows. Windows produce.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Probably nearing time we should start tracking another President's Day storm.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    I really think after many were saying the overall look is similar to last winter we are going to get burned again like last winter with these LR ens and weeklies. When they show a poor pattern they are right. When they are all in agreement with good looks tho......
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    How is the storm after this storm looking?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Slop to rain this weekend, far offshore bomb, then another cutter. Cool pattern.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Looking like a trivial event maybe we can score 1" which would be our largest storm of the season. <deep breath.....exhales slowly> sigh
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON is a major sleet/ice event...only about an inch snow verbatim.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    DT has a new video
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