Ralph Wiggum

Great sales pitch.

I think collectively we can do this if we will it to happen. Next year our goal will be 0" then 21-22 the sky is the limit. Seriously tho we need a strong old fashioned raging Nino to reshuffle the deck.

Euro, EpS, and DT just cancelled winter

The Phillies had a guy named Ryan Howard. He took lots of swings. Too many. He led the league in K's and set numerous strikeout records. After a while taking swings gets old and you need a homerun. He led the league in homeruns several years prior but never got the magic back. Is that where we are headed irt snow?

Guess DT is cancelling winter.

Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening.

But but at least it snowed.

The silence from Bob Chill is telling/deafening.

Ha just saw this. I thought spring you say winter. Where's my snow and frigid temps!?

Feels like March 15 outside....mild for mid Jan and very windy. Hoping for an early sustained spring this year. My plants and bulbs need a normal season where their fresh growth isnt crushed by concrete snow in late March.

Sounds good. What area?

GFS colder. The gfs doesnt look dry fwiw.

ICON has us in the low to mid 20s here Saturday afternoon with a mix of sleet and fzra. Been getting progressively colder at the surface each run.

But the pattern concesus no matter what nor how the tellies shift around to change the overall hemispheric look there is almost zero tendency neither this season or last to progress into something that provides meaningful widespread snows. I know parts of this sub had a fluke event 10 days ago but these small windows in between tellie shifts are the only ways we score and even then I would say of the 5 or 6 times the key features transition only 20% of those windows are producing. One of these seasons it will reverse and.the atmosphere will do no wrong. It is just proof again it is so damn hard to get a pattern that produces for more than one of our subs in a particular event.

I am really dreading the next 10 days tbh. Some are saying but this time is different but the same recurring themes keep surfacing. So whether a longwave in china is different or a blob of HP over N Canada, the truth is the apparent real weather patterns at the surface are repeating ie storm cuts to GL and secondary redevelops a hair too late, a storm is too far off the coast, a storm slides right over us, or we have a good track in between cold shots and mix or rain. I dont see this changing...unless there is a hemispheric reshuffle of the overall background state tellies or we somehow fluke into something late in the season as everything gets convoluted during seasonal transition and HL actually appears in some form besides progressive/transient.

Seems reasonable. As for the follow up system(s) the favorable looks are headed the wrong way again and getting delayed or the longwaves are just not lining up to produce anything meaningful. I'm afraid the GL cutters and systems just off the coast during cold air retreat are going to continue. It is probably going to take a fluke late in the season to give us something meaningful. Still think we have one large system before its all over. Whether big enough to get us to avg per my outlook tbd. I will be the first to claim I failed at season end....nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Just not looking great right now.

It's the see-saw ens pattern we've seen since mid Dec. I have no clue what is causing it but we go 2 days of great looks then swing towards a degrading look then back again in 2 days. And at the end of the day the better looks and 'productive' storm chances are still 10 days+ out.

Dont use the GFS op for forecasting LR teleconnections would be the best advice anyone can offer.

Where is your winter LR forecast posted that is on cue as you said? You might be the only forecaster to have nailed it outside of Tom. Would love to give you credit where credit is due. Is the 6-12" this weekend part one of the MLK weekend back to back storms you forecasted?

The 31.6 is right over my house just N of PHL. If we get within a day or 2 and something remotely similar is progged, you are welcome over. You just have to appease my son and daughter with snow tubing, building snowmen, etc while I'm mc'ing the grill. And @C.A.P.E. needs to bring the beer. Prefer an imperial stout or a porter but any will suffice.

Now that guidance is trending colder the next problem has shown up. The waa and system overall look drier. We have a few days to hopefully tweak things for the good but we just cant find a way to find a break this season.

This day 10 threat is closely resembling the system for this weekend at roughly the same lead time. Guidance showed ridging moving across S Central Canada with an ULL moving underneath. The ridging kept looking stronger for a bit and I remember posting how the surface low couldnt cut. Same setup day 10 now. Someone will assuredly reply how this setup is different and it is contingent on the 50/50 and the ridging I mentioned and that a minor adjustment puts us all in the game. And while I agree, there is the argument that a minor adjustment the other way can take us right out of the game too. In any event, the storm track and base pattern will be the same here as others recently. We've seen this before where the next one looks better, the one after that looks better. Not trying to deb just making my case why I think the long lead system is going to end up not working as we would like. Recent history and very similar setups say primary moves near the GL and secondary develops just a smidge too late. Timing and placement of key features are just a hair off this season for whatever reason. I hope we trend differently but I cant go against what we've seen already.....maybe this can somehow buck the trend and be "the one". Things look ok now on the ens but again, to have this hold or improve over 10 days this season is a tall order.

Isnt it 99% always day 10+ though?

Thought the same about the flip back to snow...was odd. All frozen tho 0z run. ICON is now all frozen as well.

I'm not sure the Euro and GFS are going to pick up the CAD as well as the mesos. The euro hi res maybe and its 18z has all frozen up this way from what Ive read.