Ralph Wiggum

Temp 23F in Blue Bell. Menacing gray clouds to my SW.

HRRR fwiw continues the trend colder. Hangs on to 850s a bit longer...less sleet here more white. Not sure I buy it. Best bet is a mix. Wont be above freezing in my area til after 8PM it seems on alot of guidance now. Eta: still showing only a c-1" here...very dry. Now cast time. Off to work....

3k NAM colder at surface. More ice up this way. Drive home at 7 should be fun.

Feels like winter for a day anyway. 21F and has that gray sky wintry vibe.

Lull was forecast. It is the gap between the WAA band and the front. Should be intermittent stuff then resume this afternoon. 2-5" up your way with possible mixing.

And that seems realistic. Antecedent temps and +anomalous 2m/850s preceding the storm generally dont bode well for the lower elevations. The banana high looks nice but this doesnt look like a SECS for the i95 cities (maybe BOS) at this time.

Intermittent precip/lull between the WAA band and the batch trailing behind. Farther North the shorter the lull. In the SE part of the state...c-2" snow then a .25-.5" sleet a little less extreme SE counties. Just enough to make travel slick.

Fascinating. Which area is getting a foot of snow next week?

12k NAM increased qpf now in line with the GFSand others. 3k NAM is all frozen here save for the tail end.

18z GFS is 6" all snow up here ending as rain showers. Shows no sleet.

Dont need no stinking computer generated map to tell me this is some serious HP settling in. It is cold, breeze out of the N, and the sky has that classic deep blue look to it with nary a cloud in sight. Radiational cooling tonight and the stage is set for tomorrow. Doubt it will be the last frozen of the season but certainly the biggest so far. Savor it like we wont see it again until next season.

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things.

Agreed. Doubt we see much non-frozen up here. Thinking about an inch or so snow then lots of sleet.

WRFs are all coming in colder at the surface and longer 850s sub 32f fwiw.

HRDPS is much colder and almost entirely frozen thru entire event save for the extreme SE counties (Delco, Philly, S chesco, extreme lower Bucks). Good trends so far 12z if you like frozen. NAM thus far is by itself. Not saying it is wrong as these events usually warm faster than modeled but will be interesting to see which guidance has the better idea.

12z suite is coming in colder 850s and keeping them colder longer. Also seeing colder 2m temps. This is on the RGEM ICON, and GFS. NAM is warmer fwiw. Awaiting the WRFs mesos.

Jan 96

I'm with you. If we arent going to have a clean snow then pile that sleet up! The Valentines sleetfest ('07?) was epic. Had like 3" of sleet where I resided at that time.

It is interesting to see some of the hires stuff flip dome areas back to snow as the flows backs and winds veer NE later in the day. RGEM has a nice burst of heavy snow in the back end.

Mesos / wrfs are coming in much colder 850s and surface. Are all snow for PA except right along I95. Big shifts on the mesos.

Wiggum Rule strikes again....flakes were flying throughout SE PA tonight with a few spots picking up light accums. GFS/Euro say we could make another run at 60 next weekend.

GFS caved to the NAM irt qpf

Cecily Tynan going with a change to rain all the way into the LV, no sleet just solid r/s line. "Very mild air will work it's way in Saturday afternoon".

Double doink

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)