Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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I would still be skeptical for your region. If it trends badly down here and better 40n I will take future discussion to the other sub so it wont appear as trolling which is not my intent. Plenty of time for all of us here to trend positive (or negative).
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Leave us alone for 10 minutes please. This model solution needs a little more than a hug. Thanks.
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ICON at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time.
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Tracking Convection Chances- Better Odds then a Winter SECS
Ralph Wiggum replied to Albedoman's topic in Philadelphia Region
My bad, I thought you opened this thread regarding t-storm chances. Dont take it so personal man, I'm not challenging you. It just underperformed up this way. -
ICON is a crusher 40 N
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I dont see the NS feature getting out front or the ss feature slowing. More confluence over the NE is a benefit tho. I guess we grasp at any positive we can find.
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Tracking Convection Chances- Better Odds then a Winter SECS
Ralph Wiggum replied to Albedoman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Convection failed in the region. No thunder, no lightning. Only wind gusts with the front and a 90 second downpour. At least it snowed after the front cleared up this way. -
Only 16 days out. La la lock it up.
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Weenie rule #197....precip falls at night with good rates will overcome 2m temps in the upper 30s.
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Um, ukmet is cold smoke bro. Classic setup actually. Eta: only thing I dont particularly like is the location of the 850 low...but it's a week out.
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CMC is the lone bright spot so I'm hugging the hell out of it tonight and shutting my eyes for the night before the euro comes along and, well, you know.
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Moot point to discuss r/s lines at this range but does that model seem off to anyone else? 850s are very marginal and the 540 line is N of most of us .
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Here @Ji.....somehow the Great VD Storm on the CMC manages to snow with the 540 line N and W
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Last couple runs had hp in S Montana pressing SE. This run it never enters the lower 48 until the system pulls away.
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This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man! Ha! I wish I could control it bud.
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Problem is, the window for this to work is getting tighter. Speed up the NS and it shears out the sj wave. Slow down the sj wave and it tries to phase with ns energy too far West causing heights to rise in the se and a cutter-ish scenario. It is looking like a tightrope walk and us trying to walk a tightrope usually looks like this:
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But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.
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^^this This is the problem we've had this winter with nearly every. Single. Threat.
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Looks like 12z started a trend to lose that nice nosing HP to the N of the low. 18z continued the trend. Now the cold high moves in behind the system instead at 0z.
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Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.
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Looks like the UKMET and Euro tbh. Cutter / overamped too soon gonna likely win out.
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18z is a good look as expected actually......for NE. Would it transpire any other way?
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Burst of moderate wet snow right now. Wiggum Rule is alive and well. -
I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point.
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Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not?
