Ralph Wiggum

It's raining. Cruddy Monday morning.

It certainly isnt out of the realm of possibility. I remember back in the 80s shows like 20/20 etc saying how the steps to slow AIDS at the time were fairly simple...safe sex, dont share needles etc. I specifically remember them saying "could you imagine a virus of this nature being spread like the flu?".

There is much the scientists arent making widely known but some findings abroad are now beginning to leak out. There is a reason Fauci is saying there will be repeated flareups and to keep things shut down.

More and more scientist studies reporting online and various news sources such as reuters and usa today that they are starting to get data that supports once you get covid19 it never leaves. Few reports now of triple infections in S Korea! I've seen comparisons to a herpes or aids type virus where it stays in the system but goes dormant at times even so as much to provide a negative test result. They are learning more and more about this every day. Scary part is, it will continue to beat down the immune system and lungs. Reports are showing lung scarring on those who have 'recovered'. If these reports are true, this isnt good. Imagine aids being spread via respiratory droplets?

Weird because alot of the 10m wind charts are 25-30 nothing higher. I've seen 10m much more aggressive in the past.

Not doubting Fauci one bit. But he has also said as have many others that this virus is one of the most interesting that they have ever studied but none have gone into detail about what exactly is so "interesting" and fascinating about it. What arent we hearing?

Cant find the date on that article but it does state at the time of the article there were 137,000 cases globally. So the article is quite old now. Who knows what new findings scientists are seeing?

Not sure if it has been discussed here but saw some articles yesterday and today (Reuters/USA today) that many recovered covid19 patients in Singapore, S Korea, and China have contracted the virus yet again. Was a rather significant % too. I'm wondering 1) if there is factual proof irt these articles and 2) if this is true, im curious (hopefully wrong) if it will continue affecting people once they have gotten it ie weaken their immune system further every time until it kills them. That would be a horrible and downright frightening finding. Scientists keep saying they are learning new "interesting" things about covid19 every day.

CMC has a snow event end of next week. GFS is close then does this a few days later.

Could you imagine the hysteria at stores if the media starts calling for snow next week? Get your toilet paper while you can lol !!!

Snowing here.

Cell up in Buckingham Bucksco means business. Rotation with it as well.

Is there any truth to the USA running low on test kits past several days? Seeing articles stating we used a few millions tests up rather quickly and have hit a threshold where they are just not able to keep up with the demand currently. Could this explain the leveling off of new cases we are seeing? Or is there validity to the curve beginning to flatten? I know in NY they are saying more people leaving hospitals as recoveries than are entering so those numbers could potentially be documented as factual yes?

Several cases in late Nov very early Dec of severe respiratory infections, bronchitis, and pneumonia up in my area. I was one of the cases. I never (to my knowledge) had any lung or respiratory illness before. Maybe as a child? But my sicknesses are either "stomach bug" (barfing and the runs with low-grade fever maybe once every other year) OR I get a scratchy throat, supplement with zinc....get a mild sore throat and "head cold" symptoms then gone in 2 days. What I and many of us had a few months ago was different than anything I've had in the past. Brief scratchy throat then no congestion or head cold but rather settled quickly into the chest with a persistent and severe unproductive dry cough, shortness of breath which I couldnt breathe due to the chronic cough and fever of 101-102.5 which doctors and swabs had no diagnosis for us other than being verbally told "it isnt pneumonia it appears to be a different strain of flu". Prescribed bed rest, pedialyte, and tamiflu. Lasted about 4 days before slowly subsiding. Now I'm not implying this was covid19. One would assume if a bunch of us had it and whatever it was spread around efficiently that many folks would have succumbed to infections and pneumonia and we would have heard of hospitals being overwhelmed. I just find it a weird coincidence that people I spoke to that had this back around thanksgiving dont normally get respiratory sickness but did this time for whatever reason. I did alot of poking around online and best data I could find is there was a mutation/variant of the h1n1pdm09 strain noted in some cases. Either way, makes me cringe thinking about how viral mutations can happen under scientist noses so quickly and efficiently without detection until spread around the population.

Mesos look blah but I would put more credence in the SPC outlook than a computer generated model so yeah. Looks like 2 rounds of convection in SE PA.....first around lunchtime then another later this afternoon. Might even see a brief instability snow or hail squall early tomorrow North of the turnpike.

PA.

Going to spike again if you ask me. Why? As an essential careworker driving home today saw 2 softball games being played, a family bbq with no less than 15 vehicles, 2 grocery stores mobbed with customers out enjoying the nice weather for something to do (lots of families of 4 or 5 just passing the time). Guess they heard natl media coverage the certain zones are flattening the curve and now people are returning to normal without being given the all-clear. I hope those new lower projections are correct but I can tell you first hand people not giving a f are going to cause mandates to keep us inside all summer if they decide everything is hunky dory and they can return to normal because one or two areas are flattening and they want to enjoy the spring weather. Not good imho.

Yes, I think most of the mutations seen thus far have been trivial and not really affecting the severity of the virus or major characteristics. Just enough gene changes to be able to track infection zones. I know for example they tracked one of the strains on a cruise ship to the same genetic makeup from Washington state. So hopefully it remains 'stable' with only about 2 mutations per month. I think I read typical influenza undergoes about 8-10 mutations per month thus why there are different vaccines all the time. Hopefully one and done with covid19 irt vaccination.

I am so sorry to hear about your loss. I dont know you personally but I send prayers and condolences to you and your family at this time.

This is all one hell of a sacrifice for an NAO block during deep winter next year? We are getting anomalous NAO blocking currently that was poorly modeled and seemed to come out of nowhere. But then again, we have seen ridging in that zone show up in spring past few years so I doubt anyone could pin this on emission changes at the surface. You have to think on a global scale there is going to be 'some' effect on the atmosphere and subsequent weather eventually. I'm just really curious what that will be. And I realize there are going to be two sides as always to the discussion and AGW will inevitably be a part of the convo. Hopefully we can keep it professional here as I dont think either side can say for sure what will happen. We should use this as a situation where posters can respectfully bounce ideas around. Wishful thinking?

There is this too: "Around the world, seismologists are observing a lot less ambient seismic noise -- meaning, the vibrations generated by cars, trains, buses and people going about their daily lives. And in the absence of that noise, Earth's upper crust is moving just a little less. Thomas Lecocq, a geologist and seismologist at the Royal Observatory in Belgium, first pointed out this phenomenon in Brussels. Brussels is seeing about a 30% to 50% reduction in ambient seismic noise since mid-March, around the time the country started implementing school and business closures and other social distancing measures, according to Lecocq. That noise level is on par with what seismologists would see on Christmas Day, he said."

I'm sorry but I'm not seeing that. And using log over linear will always imply a flatter look than actual. 3000+ more new cases today so far than yesterday, deaths over 1000 again seems inevitable (990 as I type this) , and recovery rates much lower than deaths still. Next 10-14 days will be horrible....but we will get there. I want to be optimistic and I am but realistically we cant rush it.

Not sure this belongs here but wanted to start a discussion to hear thoughts on something. Let's say this shutdown/quarantine whatever you want to call it continues for another 4-6 months (hopefully not). We have seen factories closing, people not travelling, air traffic limited, etc. I have seen pics of cities before and current that show visible reduction in smog/haze/pollutants/emissions. I dont have actual proof that the reduction in emissions is doing anything, thus why I wanted to start a discussion to see if these cutbacks are actually helping to clean the atmosphere at all AND what could the implications be short term and longer term irt the weather?

Nice setup on the Euro day 10 lol. Where was this pattern in winter??

Euro 240hr is setting up something....interesting. CMC is hella BN temps too. Go figure. Perfect pattern for January sets up in April with a raging EPO ridge, +PNA, -AO, -NAO lol