Ralph Wiggum

Fyp

When DT starts a thread about a snow potential, I am confident entering the thread that there will be little if any GFS chatter and lots of Euro love.

Urban heat island being modeled nicely. Shorts/flip flops and margaritas on the deck for the holiday! 2020 can't end soon enough. 2021 will rock

Revisit this setup in 3 weeks and BAM!

Shades of last 2 winters where the GEFS led the way with the EPS often dangling unicorns then slowly caving.

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z. This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong?

If we can get storm tracks this winter like the one forecast for the upcoming weekend, many here wouldnt complain. Benchmark track for SE PA. Hopefully this becomes the default and not the apps runner track that Cecily/Adam think will be repetitive. I'll tag myself, thank you.

EPS not gloom and doom as much as the GEFS and GEPS were for mid month. Holds that Scandinavian ridging which I had mentioned feeding the neg NAO. PAC is also neutralish looking. A workable pattern anyway and not a total shut the blinds look. Key to this winter as I stated in early Nov will he how long and how strong that Scan ridge holds and if it continues to feed the NAO as it has shown since mid Sept. Cautious optimism.

We need that guy that posted the snowfall depth % maps every day last winter to return....STAT!

Last days of November=the new late May/early June.

Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works.

Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago.

@WxWatcher007.....you better get the Panic Room ready.

Thanks and same to you and the others on this forum. Cheers!

Few stray flakes here in Warminster (Ivyland) earlier.

Didn't plan on it this year. My time has been devoted much more to family. If I have some free time I will put my thoughts together. I can tell you that I dont see any indices that make me feel all warm and fuzzy. I doubt we have a shutout, but honestly if you were to force me to commit to anything, I would say we are in trouble. More red flags than positive signals. We do have the solar minimum working for us and historically we have fared well, so there's that. I dont like the coupling of the trop PV and eventually strat PV over the pole. Even hints it tries to settle in over Alaska by early Dec. That generally doesn't bode well for forcing negative temp anomalies into the region as it locks into AK, Canada, and the Northern tier states and Maine. We'll see, maybe we can get a transition to something good, especially into January. Eta: I have seen blocking in Scandinavia being rather persistent this fall. That is an area that can push into the NAO region as we have seen a couple of times. As usual, the NAO/AO needs to be watched...could be a potential gamechanger.

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

Didnt note the timestamp. Just getting the rust off for autumn lol.

Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para

Maybe already been discussed but I see we have a new GFS-para now. Fun times.

Both rounds uneventful here yesterday.

Pretty uneventful here. Downpour, a few distant rumbles of thunder, and 2 gusts. No damage, no hail, no naders.

Bomb Cyclone? Thundersnow? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mother-s-day-weekend-snowstorm-could-bring-bomb-cyclone-thundersnow-n1202811?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Just wait for the zombies....coming this summer to an area near you!

Benchmark track for us. Bring it!! And people wonder why everyone is sick.