Ralph Wiggum

Euro is a classic MECS track....dont dwell on specific thermal boundaries at this range. That is a GREAT look and signal. Maybe we all score, maybe we dont....but this threat is under 7 days and has legs....sexy legs.

Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line.

I saw this ^^^ then looked at the actual GEFS h5 anomalies map and am more intrigued by the anchoring in of the Aleutian low the farther the run goes out than the specific indices posted above tbh.

This will make or break @Ji irt to whether he gets reaped or not @WxWatcher007

-AO and -NAO are locked in thru the majority of both the GEFS and GEPS runs. PAC also shows noted improvement during the run.

Good look on the GEFS. -NAO, -AO, 50/50, disturbance passing just to our South. Cant ask for a much better look on an ens mean at this point. Scandinavian ridge working its magic. The key to this winter is looking promising.

Fringed. Probably correct.

JMA, ICON, Euro, GFS, and CMC all have the midweek event. Gaining legs. Of most importance regarding this threat is the better confluence showing up and a stronger HP with subsequent deeper CAD continuing to show with each new run. Heading the right direction. Anyone who starts a specific thread of this threat before Sunday should have an auto-ban. No jinxes. Let's roll.

Liking the looks on the ensembles of the Scandinavian ridging (which has essentially been locked-in since early Oct) not only feeding and fueling the NAO ridge but also bolstering the -AO. Pac isn't looking terrible with a low around Western Alaska and a flat ridge in the PNA region. Again, we don't need/want to see -5 SD in the AO/NAO...subtle anomalies often end up verifying more often than those unicorn teases we've seen over the past few years. With these looks we should have ample chances at the very least.

Approaching the make or break period IMHO. Past few winters (or lack of), when model mahem appeared in December the final result sort of dictated the base state the rest of the winter. I know things can turn on a dime at any point but generally we establish things in the period approaching. If we can actually get some of these ull tellie looks to pan out and not be a tease, we should be in businesses this season with ample chances. We know what happened with these teaser looks past years. Fingers crossed.

Certainly a threat at day 5-6 in the MR. Euro holds the Plains energy back and allows for more spacing to amplify while most other models are faster with the flow and don't allow for much amplification due to wavelength issues with a low over the GL/SE Canada much like the system from Monday which brought light snow to the southern mid atl but was moving off the SE coast (GGEM is a close look to that). Something to watch and has potential if things can slow down with just enough HL blocking to force the Plains energy to dig to the Gulf States ala the Euro. I do like the much better looks of the GEFS and GEPS going forward in time. Not a unicorn look but better Baffin ridging, Aleutian low look. Blinds are opening. I should post the gif above more often....reverse psychology might work. We'll see.

If it weren't for the fact it was the GFS rather than the Euro showing this, DT would have already started threads in no less than 3 subforums.

If this one doesn't work out, there's always another behind it.

Two things confirmed..... 1. Wentz on the Bench 2. Opening one blind to peek out...things suddenly look workable on the ensemble means. Not great....yet...but not the shutout look that was advertised run after run for a while.

I was thinking the same. Workable look.

Definitely going to enjoy watching it. Having gone thru the dismal past few winters, it makes you enjoy these tiny events much more.

Even like a fantasy storm that last for 2 runs would be ok Then you would complain about how bad the models are and how they tease you.

Yep, we need the front to press thru via the low in the Lakes. Haven't seen that work often in recent weeks. Been a general repetitive theme trying to time the GL low progression and front with the trailing low left behind in the SE. Maybe this time works. I know several of us including myself were eyeing mid month before we shut the blinds for a bit, so may this one happens. Eta: GEFS/GEPS vs EPS for that period. EPS flattens the SE/WA Ridge and appears to be allowing the front to press thru potentially setting things up afterward. GEFS/GEPS keep the Nina look we've seen with the SE/WA Ridge where the GL low drifts NNE and the trailing front remains hung up to the West of us.

Not sure. There is the return flow from a 'Bermuda high' which is something that has been prominent for months on-end. Also you have a low in the GL region which recently has been shown to either hang in there or drift N/NE rather than progressing E and dragging a front thru reinforcing cold (which is what you would want looking at that map verbatim). Neither of those things have worked out thus far and imo we are seeing a pattern setting up (Nina?) that favors more of a SW flow behind HP headed for Bermuda as well as LP in the Lakes. If we are going to get things to periodically work for us this season we will need help from the NAO.

Thats exactly where I'm at too. 'Maybe' a brief chance mid-month then crud pattern. Based on historic analogs looking at different tellies, January should provide some chances.

Looks a little like tomorrow's setup.

New England Lucy'd, Euro back to leading the pack, DT on the Mid Atl forum. This is the stuff of lore that we once told our kids about and it's happening again.

I am so sorry to hear this. We are here for you. Hopefully this winter can provide some positive diversion for you. Enjoy those children, they are precious and those ages are some of the most enjoyable as a parent.

DT said the GFS is trash and doesn't handle STJ properly. We're still in the game....if it's a fully loaded 6-shooter roulette game anyway.