Ralph Wiggum

Then you would like the 18z NAVGEM. Fairly amped on Monday for a progressively biased model.

The JV squad are on board as well (ICON, NAVGEM, JMA).

JMA on board. Hate the 24 hr maps, tough to see what happens after this panel before it heads East of Atlantic City....but this has the look of a Mid Atl pasting imo with that HP strength and location. One of the better model looks for most of this sub.

Damn, I go away for some pizza and I miss all the action.

Fwiw (and probably not a whole heck of alot) the 18z NAM is 3 mb deeper with the Monday low than 12z. Stronger Monday should be good for Wed. Dont want to see Monday shear out and weaken....thats our 50/50

Monday is our 50/50 under the block for mid week. Strong but steady moving is the ticket. Eta: ninja'd by @Newman

My expectations are tempered for now. Nice to have something under 7 days to track. You know as well as I how hard it is to have a bullseye hold for 3 days let alone 5 or 6. Thats an eternity. Pattern is woofing but I am not sold on any one solution just yet. 12z suite has shown quite a range of solutions....a cold rain, a nothing burger, and a blizzard. It is encouraging to see 2 out of the 3 big models with hits. Another couple of days.

Guidance hinting 2020 may go out with a bang. Active asf

Meh, I've seen better day 6 charts

Thank you for your research. I had a handbook but threw it in the firepit last winter.

Yepper. If we had no hits and a bunch of swings and misses or cutters we would all be saying we have 6 days to change. There's no rule ( @RedSky please confirm via the weenie handbook) that this cant turn into a disaster still. Definitely need to wait until Sunday but more likely Monday before dusting off the champagne bottles. Tuesday AM we can put on ice. Tuesday PM we can pop corks.....hopefully.

Neither of you are wrong

CMC is the high end perfect situation. On the other side we have the UKIE which is a weak nothing burger, and the ICON which is mainly a Rainer. It is good to see the GFS and GEFS (also a darn near perfect track for PHL and closeby) honking. Still a long way out. Im torn whether the early seasonal trend of tracking farther N and W with slp will verify OR if as I mentioned yesterday the -AO/-NAO help us out. Decent CAD look appearing also which tends to show more as lead times lessen traditionally. I would think guidance will continue to show several varying solutions and p-type thru AT LEAST early Sunday.

Pants-tenter run

Fyp @ravensrule ... how'd I do sensei?

EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood.

Icon is warm snow Icon is a defective Volkswagen lemon

My biggest fear is that this becomes a Pa north storm cause low cant get organized in time Your concern is always justified. Should probably consult with @WxWatcher007 on how to proceed.

HH GFS the HP responsible for the CAD for midweek actually ticks stronger between hrs 114-138 as it slowly lifts. Good trend and all we can ask for at this range.

18z ICON has some accumulating snow for the NW burbs on Monday fwiw.

As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum?

Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold.

I agree with this. With a -AO and -NAO tandem in place, things generally tend to trend better or at least hold course rather than the opposite. Haven't had this setup in quite a while. Definitely an eyebrow raiser.

DT honking for N of PA turnpike. Would be nice to get one of those classic N and W of the city events. Been a long time. They were so common years ago.

Main takeaway from 12z suite....stronger confluence, HP, and CAD. Even a thump to taint in mid Dec is a win IMHO. Promising sign for the winter. Last 3 seasons the pattern was dictated by mid Dec and was crud. Reversal this year. Solar minimum ftmfw!