Ralph Wiggum

4th and goal for Brady on the 4. FG unit is coming onto the field. Should be an easy chip shot to take the lead here with under 5 to play. Time out taken by his opponent to try and ice the kicker. Not sure I agree with the time management call but we'll see. And here we go....for the lead (or the loss in our case)....here's the snap....the kick is up...AND IT'S BLOCKED!!!! THE FG IS BLOCKED!!! Recovered and downed by the defense on their own 17. Wow, what a turn of events here to stop the drive. Unbelievable. This one is going to come down to the wire. We get the ball back with 4:20 to play tied at 24 and all Brady can do is sit on the sideline and hope his D holds and he gets a late shot at a drive. How fitting would this be for a rare upset for the DC/Philly teams. Wow!

The goalposts are narrowing and SE PA is still in middle or a dickhair to the left of the best snows. We take.

UKIE looks like the CMC upstairs. Not horrible at the surface. Step back from the ledge my friend

Tom Brady 2nd and goal with the game tied at 24 and 5 mins to play. We need a fumble or a pick here!

UKIE is stronger with that feature also....let's see what it does at the surface

Getting a little late in the game for ens

What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated.

So close for SE PA. BUT....I think trends are what are most important here. See my last post above....isnt much to stop this from pressing the best band of snow even farther S and E.

We need the feature over New England I made note of yesterday to weaken or go away, not continue to get stronger. This flattens the boundary pressing or holding confluence South. It also lessens the chances for a clean capture / stall and is the diff between a MECS and a SECS for parts of our region. You can see the trend on the CMC I am posting which is why the NW shield collapses and erodes. This is showing on several pieces of guidance now:

Seems like a reasonable albeit perhaps slightly conservative call. We take regardless.

It will. It is clearly trending that direction.

GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs.

I mentioned yesterday afternoon that piece is what could keep confluence tighter and nudge everything S.

Looks like around 10-14" EtA: that doesn't factor in mixing. Snow map closer to 5-8"

Adjust the RGEM about 30 miles N and W and massive hit. As it stands now, S NJ bullseye based on surface maps. Yet another solution .

Man, just across the Del River gets pummeled, SE PA SECS, smoking cirrus farther N and W on the RGEM. In line with the 6z EPS.

Shame 96 was a Miller A because this is ghosts of that storm....heaviest band at 54hr lead thru DC and to the S and E of us then started to come N and the rest is history. Not sure how this Miller B will react. Guessing we don't see that N tick we need but we also aren't in a terrible spot still with 2.5 days to go. Wouldnt take much to adjust to a biggie or even the opposite. Walking a tightrope here.

DC and Mid Atl destroyed!

Very Jan 2000ish

RGEM went South...misses the N half of the forum. Guessing the CMC will follow since they run off similar algorithms.

SLP doesn't move for 24hrs on the ICON from 15z Mon to 15z Tues....sits and spins at our BM spot.

ICON has been steady for several runs now. Going to be a big hit better than 6z. Nice capture and phase

First half of February even Blocking reloads...thats a plus.

GFS says let's try this again in 12 days:

NAM doesn't phase in the 2nd energy early enough, implies a hair late on the neg tilt structure, stacking, and potential capture. It is around where the 6z eps was. Not a horrible run tho at all. 6-12"/7-14" seems like the general idea among guidance up here right now if u toss the extremes on either side. Very nice storm up here. Could still nudge either way, but I dont hate the NAM. Close to a Bigger storm solution here.