Ralph Wiggum

From your keyboard to @WxWatcher007 sickle.

But 95-96!!

Because it is a model guidance at range and not going to nail the surface every time even with a good ul look. Guidance says this period has potential.

Probably won't see a sustained PNA ridge this winter based on enso state. Admittedly the Nina looks to have peaked but we will likely be past prime climo by the time we see lag effect out West wrt the PNA. We will see transient ridging in that area as is evident in recent weeks. But as many including myself have stated earlier in the season, the main wild card will be AO and NAO ridging. Thus far we have seen a tendency for those regions to linger in negative territory. As long as we aren't seeing a sustained PAC firehose destroying any cold air sources, we can score without a +PNA. I dont have specific examples handy attm but they have been posted here in the past. AO and NAO are far more important in this region for snowstorms than a PNA spike. And we can still get MECS in a -PNA especially if the pattern keeps reloading in the AO/NAO zones.

But it isnt perfect. Discard.

Never saw so many ways to fail with an epic block the entire run as the 12z GFS op depicts lol. One of those will work....Im willing to bet on that. Too many vorts moving thru. Probably going to be a period of swift medium range tracking coming up beginning next weekend.

Yes. And if you believe the means it anchors in and meanders around the general NAO region. So hopefully as you said timing and luck can play a role when it ventures into the more favorable areas. GFS op is eye candy wrt HL blocking the entire run and even becomes more favorable farther out. But alas....op at range so salt grains and all that jazz.

The trof is in the Aleutian chain. Thats not a horrible look with a split flow off the West coast.

Just mentioned this in my home forum. Ens means are east-based. That is one way we could waste the good pattern looks on the ops. Unless you have a stable boat and head East.

Is he hugging the Euro op? Because the EPS aren't quite as intense looking as the op. Both GFS/Euro op are more blocky and better positioning but a little far out to be using the op as gospel. If the block is too far East that is one possible way the ripe pattern comes and goes without producing (see GFS op and the pinwheel retrograding fish storm).

HR³ puts down a fresh dusting over extreme SE PA.

Ensembles are beginning to highlight the week following Christmas for a favorable pattern for POTENTIAL winter storm evolution. Front comes thru Christmas morning and associated slp heads towards Nova Scotia and begins to pump a ridge near Southern Greenland over the weekend (east-based -NAO?). By the time Monday the 28th rolls around there is a blocking pattern established in the NAO region (east?). This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3) as disturbances head across the country and run into the block. Potential is high based on these looks for one of the disturbances to connect IF the blocky looks continue in the NAO. AO is neutral to slight negative, PNA ridge is trying to pump, Aleutian low is present, and there is a weak split flow off the West Coast. All are favorable teleconnections. Keep in mind this doesn't always yield a storm but these are the drivers that many look for when discussing Northeast winter storm potential. GEFS is the most aggressive wrt actually honing in on a specific threat

Nice break this week....nothing "major" to track. Maybe a stripe of light snow along the River Sunday but tbh temps are marginal. Maybe some light snow showers Monday PM. T storms Thursday night maybe ending briefly as flakes Christmas morning before temps plummet and flash freeze. Rest up....things look blocky up North and no shortage of disturbances coming across the country as we enter the last week of 2020 and into 2021.

Stop hugging the surface maps. H5 argues strongly against this, especially the ens mean.

I dont consider myself knowledgeable on the 10hPa PV. In layman's terms, what does this weakening SPV translate to down in the trop? These SSWE's are discussed ad nauseum every year anymore it seems, but why? I know we can't say what it means for particular regions, but is it safe to assume with SPV weakening the PV doesn't allow it to 'stack vertically' over the Arctic Circle and can thus cause more displacing of the TPV and lobes to freely roam and wobble around rather than just remain anchored and stationary well to the N? Thanks.

Same to you and your family Paul

HH might be close to a weenie run look towards the end in fantasy range. Regardless, certainly alot more possibilities than last year at this time. Exciting times ahead.

Monster east based nao block, 50/50. Pac side is meh....broad US trof. Would work tho with ao blocking and most of the country cold already. Plenty of time.

That would be heavy downpours transitioning to marshmallow bombs with accums.

18z GFS says maybe some fresh anafront accums morning of the 25th for you. Not a reliable setup but who knows....we've had anafront snows twice already soooo.

Euro has been sniffing that one for a few runs now laying down light accums. Ironically 12z today was the first run it backed off.

No surprises there given the looks headed into the last week of Dec.

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast.

For being a Nina, sure are seeing a fair amount of STJ disturbances moving across in the LR.