Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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I remember when we would get snowstorms at least once every other year with temps in the teens or low 20s during the entire event. It seems anymore just getting 2m temps near freezing is a struggle and keeping from mixing with rising temps during a snowfall is a common theme. Were we just spoiled for decades?
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Finally into Wiggum rule territory. Worked out on Christmas Eve earlier than normal with flakes the next day. If we can hit 60 this Friday let's get more flakes flying within the next 5 days. -
Bob Chill? Is that you?
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Its like going out to a fancy ice cream parlor with your date to get their gourmet homemade ice cream in their handmade waffle cones. You place your order but you only receive the waffle cone....no ice cream. And the cashier just acts like oh well, maybe next time. Pattern and storm track in prime climo minus the most important ingredient (cold air) stinks.
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How do you like the sliders on the 6z?
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Sous vide is nice. Great looking rib roast you got there!
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Shame it is way out there but as many have already stated...patience. This year is different with the NAO/AO looks and the AO has already established itself in negative and the NAO is in short range now. This is not a bad look AT ALL: If we can get the PAC to look even remotely close to that we will be in business.
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A few posters were already into the first week of February so hearing mid January is actually somewhat refreshing.
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The worrisome part is the west-based looks we were getting continue to degrade and get kicked down farther into the LR. Imho, if we are pinning the winter on hoping a SWE can help us, we are in trouble. Just being realistic here.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
12z suite not very encouraging at all. Maybe time to come to the realization things have changed and we can't even score in a decent pattern anymore. More likely to score in a convoluted fluke regime anymore. -
If we can manage a fluke snow in a crud pattern surely we can manage something during a half decent one.
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You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY. We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually.
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Actually looks remarkably close to the 12z euro....just more separation between PJ and STJ on the CMC
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After the GFS took the Euro weeklies to school last year, I think many are hesitant to jump on them right now until more credibility has been re-established.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Mesos have snow squalls throughout the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Merry Christmas!! -
I know the gfs para is run sort of sporadically but is this para supposed to eventually replace the gfs op?
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Not a massive fan of the gefs either.
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"It isnt reading the blocking properly" "The pattern is just beginning to get established as is evident by hr 384" "The impulse that will kickstart the wintry pattern is out over the Pacific still" "It's an off-hour run" "But as long as the Euro shows something at day 10 the GFS is likely out to lunch" "GFS isn't realizing the strength of the SWE down in the trop yet"
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Same here. Probably came off the dead coyote roadkill across the street from my house. -
Soooo, we're moving on to late Jan now?
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Mean eps has that pesky east-based -NAO.
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One would think we were tracking a Cat 3 in Sept if there was no context to this post.
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Miller A? True unicorn! That isnt a slider look. Follow the bagginess in isobars. Like psu said could go either way. Plus, its 10 days+ out so no sense debating it but my take is that would turn NE/ENE and not E.
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Agreed. I mean...there's your unicorn. Let's see what Ji and the EPS say
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Day 10 Euro looks...interesting. Same interesting 10 day look as yesterday....and the day before....and the day before. Seeing a theme. Need this look to start moving up in lead time. Verbatim that is a nice Baffin Block developing and a sweet -AO....but 10 days.
