When was the last time we had a clipper pattern? I mean legit winter where we had a couple of clippers. I feel like years ago we used to get on avg 2 or 3 per year. They were 1-3"/2-4" events but they seemed so commonplace. I dont even remember when we had a single Alberta clipper tbh. 2013?
Its something anyway. But aren't we going backwards again? Went from great day 7 looks, to great day 10 looks, to great day 15 looks. Fingers crossed anywho.
I remember when we would get snowstorms at least once every other year with temps in the teens or low 20s during the entire event. It seems anymore just getting 2m temps near freezing is a struggle and keeping from mixing with rising temps during a snowfall is a common theme. Were we just spoiled for decades?
Finally into Wiggum rule territory. Worked out on Christmas Eve earlier than normal with flakes the next day. If we can hit 60 this Friday let's get more flakes flying within the next 5 days.
Its like going out to a fancy ice cream parlor with your date to get their gourmet homemade ice cream in their handmade waffle cones. You place your order but you only receive the waffle cone....no ice cream. And the cashier just acts like oh well, maybe next time.
Pattern and storm track in prime climo minus the most important ingredient (cold air) stinks.
Shame it is way out there but as many have already stated...patience. This year is different with the NAO/AO looks and the AO has already established itself in negative and the NAO is in short range now. This is not a bad look AT ALL:
If we can get the PAC to look even remotely close to that we will be in business.
The worrisome part is the west-based looks we were getting continue to degrade and get kicked down farther into the LR. Imho, if we are pinning the winter on hoping a SWE can help us, we are in trouble. Just being realistic here.
12z suite not very encouraging at all. Maybe time to come to the realization things have changed and we can't even score in a decent pattern anymore. More likely to score in a convoluted fluke regime anymore.
You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY.
We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually.
After the GFS took the Euro weeklies to school last year, I think many are hesitant to jump on them right now until more credibility has been re-established.
"It isnt reading the blocking properly"
"The pattern is just beginning to get established as is evident by hr 384"
"The impulse that will kickstart the wintry pattern is out over the Pacific still"
"It's an off-hour run"
"But as long as the Euro shows something at day 10 the GFS is likely out to lunch"
"GFS isn't realizing the strength of the SWE down in the trop yet"