Ralph Wiggum

Amped systems I can agree. We can score without having a crazy amped system minus a PNA ridge with marginal temps and slp sliding under us. Think overunning. Not every system we track needs to be an amped up MECS with a perfect upper air pattern.

We haven't had a block yet. It is just showing up on the 8-12 day now. All of this 'blocking" you are referencing were higher smoothed height extentions from the WAR that is about to break off and wobble into the western NAO region as a true block. We get it, your blinds are shut until you see cold air up North and a channel to get it down to the US. I dont agree with that as yes, temps have been AN in our source areas but temps have seen seasonal here and seasonal/marginal will work imo when the actual block settles in. Patience.

Did you expect otherwise? How many more examples of an ideal storm track with snow confined to the apps are we going to be tortured with?

Is the period broken on your keyboard?

This is why I'm not a fan of numeric indices. They don't give the true story of what is happening wrt real weather at the surface. We would have looked at that chart if it were a prog outlook before the season and assumed wall to wall cold and most would have had warning criteria snows by now. Not even remotely the case.

So we've moved on from the -NAO and are now cheering for a +PNA / better PAC instead? If it means getting the key ingredient (cold air) down to our region, then sign me up....I think. But you know once we get that look we are going cold and dry.

Dusted .2"

January of which year? 2022? I've never seen guidance track so many ull and surface lows to our South and yield rain to SE Canada during prime climo with such a distinct west-based NAO in my 30 years of tracking. New Englanders must be jumping from bridges. At least we are used to regularly failing down this way.

If you are referring to geopotential heights, then do a loop of them on the conus from 18z. The 540 line spends most of the 384 hrs north of the Canadian border. So I dont think you are seeing a negative correlation between those heights lines and 2m temps. The PV (lowest heights) is on the other side of the hemisphere for the most part. I just picked this map to illustrate my point: We are going to need pac help to get the lower heights and PV into Canada and the US....period. BUT marginal temps can still work during prime climo so keep that in mind. Eta: even with the -NAO, we are going to be spending alot of time near avg to AN temps. There just isn't a pac catalyst to get an arctic outbreak down here...yet.

Fancy way of saying atmospheric memory ie repeating patterns/storm tracks.

Torch for a few days as the ridge wobbles around like a rubber band? All the cold air is locked up in Siberia. So a few days near 60 ahead of a cold front followed by N temps behind can yield well AN for the period. I dunno....thats my simplistic take.

Yeah, those maps had my area over 56" in a 3 week period last winter. We ended with 0. So yeah, grain of salt on the snowfall maps.

Thanks smart-arse

What is that I see in the EPO region??

What other year do we get a track like that during prime climo and no snow even in the highlands? Oh right....last year.

Honestly it wouldn't be the first time in recent weeks the geps led the way. <weenie>Maybe because it is a Canadian model it is seeing the higher heights in HL better, eh.</weenie> Eta: On a serious note, we are seeing the first wave push thru with the associated slp acting as a quasi 50/50 aiding in better confluence over the NE. This is evident with decent HP and CAD now showing up across guidance. The eps maps someone posted above are a clear example of models seeing confluence under the blocking and HP.

Impressive for an ens mean....has the lp close to tracking under DC now. Major changes here.

0z op didn't agree as much with the 0z ens map above,, but now at 6z it is coming together and much more evident on both. Finally getting nearer in time. Trying to get a link between the nao and pna ridge with a sprinkling of an epo extention bridging across.

Ghosts of 1994 for interior on the GGEM

Not seeing that. Step back in pac vs 18z. NAO tries to retrograde to epo at the tail end. So we *maybe* move towards a better PAC at the cost of losing the good Atl side. Chances of having both sides working together are slim this year. Actually its always rather rare...doesn't happen often at all.

Noted, ty

With the strat stuff, I side with Tom (isotherm) in that it is overly discussed given there is little scientific correlation wrt how it works and affects real weather at the surface on a hemispheric scale. Neither he nor I are saying it is garbage as the only way to learn is to study it. But relying so much on a variable that most of the pros admittedly still don't understand is not the preferred way to forecast in the long range. It is mostly used as a straw for grasping at this point in time.

We had daughter triplets wrt PV last year and still failed. We do fail so damn well it almost feels like winning.

Which pattern? The best looking pattern in 24 years?

So you're telling me there's a chance?