Ralph Wiggum

You mentioned the similarities wrt that vort to March 2001. We all know how that worked out. I'm still not intrested yet in this potential. Too many timing concerns and things that need to go just right imho.

U just answered a question I posed for you. Ty. Wasnt seeing much on any ensembles.

Appears to me the weak solutions slide. The stronger lows ride. Makes complete sense thus why we have been saying weak sauce likely won't cut it with this one and we actually want a propertly timed phase. Still time...mixed solutions still attm.

@CAPE How did you fare in this one?

Interestingly winds have veered around within the past 90 mins from 4 mph SE to 7 mph N.

Moderate graupel/snow mix....mostly snow. Everything including roads are coated. 33F

Light coating on all surfaces here. Still holding at 33 with snow.

33 and snow

Pics or it didn't happen.

JMA looks like the GGEM

Euro op breaks down the NAO also rather abruptly. Replaces it with more of a WAR look. Might not be a transient displacement though....not quite sure yet. Could the SWE somehow be having the reverse effect of what we hoped?

This would work.

That top pic can't be real. Perfect plow job cut in the snow? I like the no salt on the road, no dirt exhaust on the snow pile. Surreal.

33 and rain here. Never wanted to have to post that but there it is. Happy New Year everyone!!

Thats a honkable map. But someone will undoubtedly remind everyone here that temps are marginal.

Of course you are already beyond the nice pattern looks thru 12 days. Doubt it just breaks down like the op....it is basically by itself in that thinking. But hey, nothing lasts forever...eventually it will end. Let's get a warning criteria under our belts at least before we start talking pattern destruction, sun angle, etc etc. This is our time right now....savor it.

We are saying goodbye to 2020...thats whats happening!

Meh, trof axis is still slightly positive. Not perfect.

Who has the Itshappening.gif?

Next week is looking better across guidance wrt HL blocking and subsequent ridging out west later in the period. Pattern evolution had been showing for a while but now it is getting closer in time and not being kicked later which is a great sign. Key features moving forward are the evolution and progression of a negative west based NAO, disturbances forced under the region, and eventually ridging in the EPO and perhaps PNA regions. First two 500mb maps are the Euro and GEPS showing what I am talking about. The Euro actually has a weak 50/50 in addition to a possible storm signal around day 8ish which is reflected at the surface in the bottom map. We should finally begin to have trackable events within the next few days irt medium and longer range. Eta: ensembles continue the pattern progression with a very active and dare I say "classic" look thru the end of their runs. Euro op has another potentially bigger system brewing after day 10. Let's get thru the next few days and kick 2020 outta here. Happy New Year friends!

That Euro run was eye-opening from hour 168 forward looking at 500mb anomalies. Getting closer in time. Buckle up!

No. The next one that delivers will surely be suppressed with that look You must be a blast at birthday parties and weddings.

Nobody knows how the SSWE will work out.....nobody. Dont be fooled into thinking they do. Yes there are some correlations but many more questions that scientists are still working on answers for.

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

So we are moving on to winter 2021-22 today? I cant keep up in here, believe me I'm trying to though.