Ralph Wiggum

Euro loves this system. Too much lol. Over amped and at mouth of Delaware Bay. Fun tracking ahead.

JB...he loves the Vodka Cold. Hey, isnt that a BINGO block?

Was just pointing out this looks to be another case of ppl calling for the SWE to be the biggest most significant warming since sliced bread and now looking to be possibly not quite the extreme extent originally thought. Still needs expansive scientific study and is generally discussed in depth by many without really understanding how and why it happens (SWE) and what the actual impacts irt apparent weather in the trop results.

While I agree, I think the tag team of PNA/EPO vs AO/NAO will only dance together for a brief period and not sustained. But as we know having them work together at all is a hard task. So yes, it looks like we are potentially seeing a rare and favorable albeit brief window where they all work together. We don't need perfection in the tellies from now thru mid March. This would work. Eta: my point was keep expectations low and don't expect a perfectly sustained H5 for the next 9 weeks...tho I think others have already done well at noting this also.

But, but, but....it isnt a perfect H5 look, 96 isn't repeating, and Ji still doesn't have 5 feet of digital snow.

So wait, the SWE didn't play out as expected and no SPV split or wind reversal in the trop? Huh, go figure.

We've had a few bouts of wintry weather over the past 10 days...nothing major but the slowly evolving hemispheric pattern change has been taking place. There should continue to be tracking chances over the next 10 days as well. Suppression may actually be an issue tho (too much of a good thing) until we hit mid month when the EPO and PNA begin to move colder air over into our source regions and the NAO block relaxes. I dont see the HL blocking fading completely this winter....it has become our base state. But we should see ebbs and flows with the AO/NAO as it seesaws between +/- as well as the PNA/EPO doing the same. This has been our base state of the NAM this season so far. Both PAC and ATL will play a dance and I doubt both work together favorably for sustained periods though transiently I could see both sides being very favorable for us. The nice thing thus far is even tho the PAC has been meh, it has not been completely hostile like last year. Long story short, next 10 days will provide a few more tracking chances but the real fun begins mid month onwards as the NAO relaxes and a quasi CPF begins to help our cold air source region in Canada.

And how did that work out for you? I am really beginning to believe you are just here for the digital snow and not the real thing.

Agreed! And ffs how much for DC and Philly, respectively?

Again, thanks for the hot take. Not sure how the forum is going to survive when you move to FL.

K cool. Thanks for the hot take on the day 12 operational model surface map.

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed.

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us.

PD4

Displaced Alaskan trof/West Coast ridge SSW mucked things up Nina climo March will rock SER flex at end of run

NAVGEM:

In the discussion forum, some have moved past the threat on the 8th, past the @WxUSAF storm on the 11th/12th, and have started targeting specific events after January 15. Feels like a normal winter around here.

We fail often when we do the sacrifice storm 1 for storm 2 thing. It's somewhere in the weenie handbook between hunting epic patterns that are a near-guarantee to produce and storms manufacturing their own cold with marginal antecedent airmasses.

Thought we wanted that storm to move into the 50/50 for next week (11th/12th)?

I'm more interested in the 11th/12th than the 8th thing tbh. Upper air pattern looks good. Just surprised at how skewed the means are at the surface still. Key lies at H5 tho at this range.

The ensemble means have little interest surprisingly vs the ops.

You mentioned the similarities wrt that vort to March 2001. We all know how that worked out. I'm still not intrested yet in this potential. Too many timing concerns and things that need to go just right imho.

U just answered a question I posed for you. Ty. Wasnt seeing much on any ensembles.

Appears to me the weak solutions slide. The stronger lows ride. Makes complete sense thus why we have been saying weak sauce likely won't cut it with this one and we actually want a propertly timed phase. Still time...mixed solutions still attm.

@CAPE How did you fare in this one?