Ralph Wiggum

It's funny ya know? We can backup into some fluke mid-Dec snow event that shouldn't even have happened given the pattern and historic climatology, yet with almost every teleconnection in a favorable spot headed into the 2nd week of January we cant even muster a flake.

The bigger storms show themselves early

Confluence tighter and in a better spot. NS speeds on by well north. Certainly a better look.

Looks like our usual around here. 7-10 days of true winter. That is my guess at the very least. It is becoming apparent we aren't scoring with the -AO/-NAO. Eventually that has to retreat and go neutral. It is during that period we will score. Likely during the 2nd half of Jan. The big question is do we regain the NAO/AO as some are saying the SWE states we will? Or do we lose the ATL in lieu of the EPO thumb ridge or rex block and not see the -AO/NAO return this winter. That should be interesting moving into the latter part of this month and early Feb. Again, we will get our week to 10 days of winter as per usual after the 15th when the Atl relaxes imho. Just wondering where we head thereafter.

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. At least we get the EPO tho right?

Don't look at the GEFS long range

Ridging look to H5 contours at 500mb, not closed off. Look at 6z gfs just for an example. At 114 hrs there is ridging in the isobars. Nothing us closed off as a true block. Then look at 276. A closed H5 look several isos deep. That is a true block look vs a ridge. Not saying it will verify just an example.

Yes

Bootleg NAO ridge not a true H5 block.

Overunning SWFE when HL ridging relaxes. This is a good setup historically as when these cpf looks break down we get smacked. No, I'm not punting mid Jan but as WXUSAF noted the look is more cold and clippers and not big dog verbatim in the heart of this regime.

Isn't that called the Panic Room?

Can we get a redux?

Wut

Exactly. We knew once the EPO popped where things would head....it was never a secret. Getting both PAC and ATL to tango is like the forbidden dance anymore. But hey, if it means a few nickel and dime clippers to keep a few posters off the ledge, then it is what it is.

But there will be the one run...JUST ONE RUN...that will show a MECS and the usual suspects will be drawn in. Its like hypnotism once it shows digital snow.

Clipper pattern then overrunning SWFE as the NAO retreats.

I'm sure somehow that vort in S Central Canada will muck things up for us.

Yeah, I'm not sure why all the pessimism. Maybe it is the futility we've endured the past few years? Impatience? Or do they know something we don't? Hmmmm. Nothing has changed. Current blocking/ridging still in the AO/NAO thru the end of the weeklies. -NAM state looks to continue. Colder air finally on the slow ooooze toward the pole and eventually into our source region. We are only 6 days into January guys...not March.

We don't need insane vodka cold nor do we want that. Also as many have been stating, pattern doesn't start filtering in until closer to mid month which is after 10 days. Eta: Most of those mean + anomalies occur in the next 6-7 days it appears

Weeklies, analogs, LR ensembles, telleconnections. Whoever would use an op GFS for LR forecasting probably would benefit from a new hobby.

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking.

This is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. Our standard nickel/dime events. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

Yeah I'm wondering if we actually enter a clipper pattern (after years without one) under the block/ridge for a bit with some overunning events ejecting out of the SW undercutting the ridge off the W Coast as the blocking relaxes. We've had those patterns before and I have a suspicion we may ne headed that route when the cold finally begins to enter the US after the 15th.

Well, I did say during that storm in a post here to give me that same storm track in January and we can talk. Might get my wish.