Ralph Wiggum

Where the hell is @Ji??

No offense taken. Big pattern look hasn't produced yet. Historically when the NAO relaxes we get another shot at a winter storm. With that said the period Jan 18th-Jan 23 is really gaining legs across guidance for something. I completely understand if you don't want to discuss anything past 7 days but frankly there isn't much else to discuss. I can agree that it has been quiet. Warm and rainy tho? I disagree on that. It has actually been rather seasonal. It rains every winter even the best ones.

Not sure your location. Where I'm at in Bucks this feels like a totally avg winter. Haven't had shorts and flip flops weather like years past.

Fyp

Signal for that period 18th-23rd getting stronger across the board with each run.

Strong signals on 12z suite across the board.

I'm slightly above avg snowfall to date here. Sure, we have been lacking the big monster coastal storms the past 4 years, but this feels like it will be an avg winter at the very least for us here. I will take that in a Niña for sure.

A flat ridge or displaced ridge in the NAO region won't slow down the flow. Rather it will suppress the flow (sliders) but allow things to keep zipping along quickly. Also the ridging keeps rolling over and a true block never establishes, tho some will argue semantics over what a true block is. We are seeing short-lived blocking but overall it is flat ridging that continually rolls over on itself keeping the flow underneath flat and fast in the NS. I'm not saying the GFS is right, but that is not the look verbatim of a blocking regime in the NAO region nor is it a big dog look.

18z GFS is about as fast and progressive a flow thru majority of the run that I have seen in quite a while. Getting something to dig and amplify in that regime is going to be one hell of a challenge.

Got pfizer vacc'd yesterday. Side effects not debilitating but glad I was off yesterday and today. Body aches, nausea, feeling drained and weak. Slowly subsiding. Booster shot scheduled for 3 weeks. Slowly crawling to the hopeful end of this pandemic within the next 12 months.

And cranberry sauce discussions

Tom has been saying since November that January would provide the best chances and HL blocking would be prevalent. He continues to hammer home the point that we are likely going to punt Feb. And March is a coin flip every year so of course we "might" get something in March. With that said, overall his outlook appears spot-on thus far and if weeklies etc are to be believed he is going to nail the first part of Feb at the very least.

Are we still counting Cali as a state?

Thats a BINGO Square, ty!

Yes a setup leading into it at 384. WXUSAF was mentioning it.

I'm giving it til the 15th like every other year. If no digital blue appearing on the horizon still, and the Nina looks staring us in the face, it may be time to lower expectations from low to nil.

Havent seen any posts...did the 84 hour 6z NAM cave?

With any blue fading fast on guidance, thinking of @Ji today during these difficult times.

Just waking up here. Are we still on track for epicness beginning the 15th then epicness with epic cold starting the 20th? Trying to plan ahead. Thanks.

It's funny ya know? We can backup into some fluke mid-Dec snow event that shouldn't even have happened given the pattern and historic climatology, yet with almost every teleconnection in a favorable spot headed into the 2nd week of January we cant even muster a flake.

The bigger storms show themselves early

Confluence tighter and in a better spot. NS speeds on by well north. Certainly a better look.

Looks like our usual around here. 7-10 days of true winter. That is my guess at the very least. It is becoming apparent we aren't scoring with the -AO/-NAO. Eventually that has to retreat and go neutral. It is during that period we will score. Likely during the 2nd half of Jan. The big question is do we regain the NAO/AO as some are saying the SWE states we will? Or do we lose the ATL in lieu of the EPO thumb ridge or rex block and not see the -AO/NAO return this winter. That should be interesting moving into the latter part of this month and early Feb. Again, we will get our week to 10 days of winter as per usual after the 15th when the Atl relaxes imho. Just wondering where we head thereafter.

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. At least we get the EPO tho right?

Don't look at the GEFS long range