Ralph Wiggum

Why are models suddenly nixing the tuck, capture, and stall idea?

12k NAM is rather mundane all things considered

Not confused at all....was more in shock that you would taunt the snow gods with such a definitive and concrete statement.

I'm braced and fully expect the NAM to botch the handoff (capture) and shoot the surface low off to the N and E quickly yielding a minor/moderate event for most.

I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day.

Yep, anything can still happen. Nobody is in the clear yet and inevitably somebody is going to get screwed. Hoping for the best for this sub, braced for the worst.

Well boys, 3rd and goal at the 4.....47 seconds to play. Game tied at 24. Brady looking on from the bench hoping the defense holds here. Teams set to go at the line of scrimmage. And here we go....its a direct snap to the running back....he scurried to the right and finds an open receiver....NO its the qb in the end zone. The Philly Special....TOUCHDOWN!!!! Unbelievable! Extra point snap, the kick is up...OH MY, no good its off the upright. Nothing ever easy in this hometown but we have the lead 30-24 with 30 seconds to play. And Brady takes the field. This proves to be one heck of an exciting finish folks. Can we hold the lead?? Buckle your seatbelts!!

Just 'cause...the HDRPS:

So with you thinking there will be a classic miller b late NE adjustment.....and the fact the bullseye on the rgem is just to our southwest.....does that mean....???

I've seen a handfull of these forecasted stallers never stall and just keep moving NE. Lets hope the capture and stall isn't a mirage. Monday AM is going to be grueling for many of us. Might need some sedatives....or a horse tranquilizer. Not sure.

The low barely moves. I mean maybe a mile or 2 in 12 hrs

12z takeaway briefly....at work. Capture looks likely. Stall likely. Longer duration sits at our BM. HECS potential increasing quickly

Slower evolution. Big end result.

ICON perfect track looks like a SE PA crusher

3k f gen banding gonna be absurd as it continues to get in closer range

About 14" here and still snowing at 78hrs.

Still snowing mid morning Tuesday on 12k NAM

If u r taking it verbatim, sure. But the fact as the outlier it bucked the trend and stopped leading the way was huge. Big picture.

Agreed. But we stopped getting warmer and nudged colder. SE PA around i95 will mix for a period but not be primarily a mix is my feel.

Huge win on NAM. Trend halted!

Good vibes this run. Cmon NAM just buck the damn trend

Well, this is a much different setup than that storm AND we are in prime climo with better modeling, so there's that. Still think the truth lies in between the 0z GFS and 6z Euro.

Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772

It isnt alone. More concerning are many eps members hitting on a line from Binghamton NY over to Bos. That is quite a jump N. If this capture doesn't happen at just the right time we are talking 4-7" in parts of SE PA vs 1-3'