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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Tom Brady 2nd and goal with the game tied at 24 and 5 mins to play. We need a fumble or a pick here!
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    UKIE is stronger with that feature also....let's see what it does at the surface
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Getting a little late in the game for ens
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    So close for SE PA. BUT....I think trends are what are most important here. See my last post above....isnt much to stop this from pressing the best band of snow even farther S and E.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    We need the feature over New England I made note of yesterday to weaken or go away, not continue to get stronger. This flattens the boundary pressing or holding confluence South. It also lessens the chances for a clean capture / stall and is the diff between a MECS and a SECS for parts of our region. You can see the trend on the CMC I am posting which is why the NW shield collapses and erodes. This is showing on several pieces of guidance now:
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Seems like a reasonable albeit perhaps slightly conservative call. We take regardless.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    It will. It is clearly trending that direction.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    I mentioned yesterday afternoon that piece is what could keep confluence tighter and nudge everything S.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like around 10-14" EtA: that doesn't factor in mixing. Snow map closer to 5-8"
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Adjust the RGEM about 30 miles N and W and massive hit. As it stands now, S NJ bullseye based on surface maps. Yet another solution .
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Man, just across the Del River gets pummeled, SE PA SECS, smoking cirrus farther N and W on the RGEM. In line with the 6z EPS.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Shame 96 was a Miller A because this is ghosts of that storm....heaviest band at 54hr lead thru DC and to the S and E of us then started to come N and the rest is history. Not sure how this Miller B will react. Guessing we don't see that N tick we need but we also aren't in a terrible spot still with 2.5 days to go. Wouldnt take much to adjust to a biggie or even the opposite. Walking a tightrope here.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    DC and Mid Atl destroyed!
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Very Jan 2000ish
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM went South...misses the N half of the forum. Guessing the CMC will follow since they run off similar algorithms.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    SLP doesn't move for 24hrs on the ICON from 15z Mon to 15z Tues....sits and spins at our BM spot.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON has been steady for several runs now. Going to be a big hit better than 6z. Nice capture and phase
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    First half of February even Blocking reloads...thats a plus.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS says let's try this again in 12 days:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM doesn't phase in the 2nd energy early enough, implies a hair late on the neg tilt structure, stacking, and potential capture. It is around where the 6z eps was. Not a horrible run tho at all. 6-12"/7-14" seems like the general idea among guidance up here right now if u toss the extremes on either side. Very nice storm up here. Could still nudge either way, but I dont hate the NAM. Close to a Bigger storm solution here.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Yes it did....and even yesterday's storm in the SE it was an even farther southern outlier for a bit with a weaker ull traversing out of the Southwest that never really amplified.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    This is exactly my thinking as well might not be until 0z we see the changes. But I bet if all other guidance remains it will begin to trend back.
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