Ralph Wiggum

Imho that may be the scenario we need to put our chips on for the foreseeable future. We've clearly seen already why during a Nina it is hard to get something to come up out of the stj....shear city thanks to the fast NS. Once anything gets North of say the Hatteras latitude, generally speaking, it get shredded or just bullied ENE. Until that NS slows down or gets more convoluted later in the season, outside of a fluke event, we will be tracking short range NS disturbances more often than not. Now get that fast flow look in the map I posted to set up just under us, and that's the look we want for clippers to deliver. Every once in a while they hit the coast and bomb out too when they run into WAR. So its like a rapid fire lottery...we can get many chances for 1-3"/2-4" events with such a setup. I think most here would take anything at this point. Now watch 12z mock me and roll in chock full of stj systems, Miller A's and bombing stj coastals.

I was hopeful we would enter a clipper pattern after the 20th and we still could. With the NS ripping, getting something to amplify and phase with the stj is going to be a challenge. Less of a challenge would be to get the HL ridging to nudge the NS disturbance track towards our latitude which would provide disturbances to push thru originating downstream of the EPO aka Alberta Clipper/Manitoba Mauler/Saskatchewan Screamer. I lump all 3 together as 'clippers' or simply northern stream disturbances.

LR GEFS/GEPS aren't horrible. SER is losing steam and the NAO/AO rebuild toward the end. Central PAC ridge blob is roaring though but it extends up into a blended WPO/EPO thumb ridge. Still looks like a ripping NS embedded with sw after sw but I wouldn't call it a shutout look either. Sorry in advance for the crap graphics:

Browns were my dark horse going in and I plan on riding them to the AFC championship, maybe farther. KC is going to get upset also. You're welcome.

It looks like the only thing blocked is energy in the stj. Yet there is no mechanism to block it. Its like any energy in the south never moves East it just drags its feet completely blocked up like a bad case of constipation. Yet the epic NAO block has energy just flying all around it, under it, over it, and everywhere else. Never seen anything like it.

GGEM is just dangling carrots now laughing at us. Seriously, what else do we need to have happen here? PNA axis in ideal spot, -NAO, -AO, weak 50/50, big energy moving across, slight SER to keep it from sliding. And the surface ends up with a sheared out nothing burger.

Any other winter we would be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun with this look. Smfh...

Its over.

Typical Nina progressive and fast NS.

This just goes to show how much of a challenge it is to get a MECS. Often times we go thru periods of being somewhat spoiled. Soooo many things need to happen properly even in an epic pattern to produce. Timing, temperature, ridge/trof amplitude, spacing, etc. Maybe 1 out of every 4 times these great tellies setup do we actually score. That ratio is a rough guess but I believe some folks think every time things align will yield a MECS. Wish it worked like that but sadly it doesn't. "Should" the coming pattern or relaxing of said pattern produce? Probably. Will it? Tbd.

Why? We can't even score in a good pattern it seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies. Eta: ninja'd by @WinterWxLuvr

Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there.

This will be the one time the entire winter thus far the EPS holds and the GEFS/GEPS cave.

EPS has caved to the GEFS the entire winter. Crazy cousin EPS wants to cut winter short. Willing to bet this time the EPS holds and the GEFS cave.

Doctor No has risen from the depths of hell apparently

I see the SSWE is already paying dividends in some parts of the hemisphere.

The silence from @WxUSAF in the main thread is deafening.

Not a bad look, this we can agree on. And this time as you noted we have a different player on the field N of the GL...the TPV lobe. Guess we will find out in a few days whether this will gain traction OR will it follow the pattern and will our sw become the latest victim of the NS shred factory?

Snow maps are pretty and all, but you and CAPE know as well as me that the truth in the LR lies upstairs at H5. The pattern isn't horrible but some of those favorable subtleties we saw 24hrs or so ago are starting to slowly fade. The overall look is ok, but seeing the 50/50 fade in lieu of more of an east based NAO ridge isn't exactly giving me the warm fuzzies tbh. Not being a deb, just being honest reporting the looks that are trending. I dont even want to discuss the LR ens at 300 hrs plus suffice it to say I really really hopethe NAO ridging can hang on and continue redeveloping.

What I dont like about the threat around the 18th is we went from a strong 50/50 look on the means from 12z Jan 9 to barely a hint of a 50/50 same period and more of and east based -NAO signal. That hasn't worked for us over the past few weeks. Maybe the signal will return. If not maybe the followup wave around the 21st will have the predecessor wave to act as a 50/50. Am I the only one getting that can-kicking vibe lately?

2 years met and atmospheric science psu. Eons ago now lol. Chose to stick with my main passion (cooking) and am now a successful Chef. And no I dont specialize in weenies

Lots of time. That run was so close to something more decent.

GFS isn't far off from that look either. Liking this setup more than 18z. Little more separation between jets, less phasing in plains

Its the ICON and its at range, so take with 2 grains salt, but like several other pieces of guidance, it is setting up something around the 18th-20th with a 50/50 developing underneath the NAO block and energy ejecting out of the Rockies. Definitely a period to watch.

Only 360 more hours to go which takes us to the last week in January. Our patience is truly being tested!