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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet:
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah. Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same.....
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Too far out to be in the bullseye. I get more nervous jackpotting at 6+ days than I do with crud solutions at 84 hrs but with wiggle room. Get this within 60 hrs and we r gold....maybe. This one doesn't have alot of wiggle room for a flush snow hit, but nice to see this as a potential. On to 0z. Eta: 18z GEFS mean showed slight improvement wrt total precip amts, 2m temps, and general track.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    EPS continue to slowly improve for our region. In addition the signal for the period Jan 28-Feb7 continues to improve and show more potential.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    That was a good storm iirc
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels!
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is cold at the surface....26F here during the height of the event 850s are -2. There is a tight gradient just south tho around the DE border. 850s are warm to the South....scary warm. A good snow hit for some here and a very icy hit for others.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    What is the precip type in DC at 126?
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    That's a strong ass primary trying to drive into that block. Banana high over top of it at the surface .
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, going to be N. Still 6 days out.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Lots of NS. Nada good?
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    The 0z op couldn't get much farther S. I expect it to follow the 6z eps N.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Gradient patterns will do that. Like PSU has been saying, where's the cold tho? In any normal winter the gradient with that look would be 60s to the South and upper single digits/teens not too far N.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Well it hardly drops any precip soooo
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Squall ripping thru here. Windblown sideways stuff. 36F
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Don't worry about the ops just yet dude. Another couple of days. The EPS ticked N again and we are currently still in a good spot on those. GEFS adjusting towards the EPS this AM. Steady as she goes. What I do like is we aren't in the bullseye yet...has been wobbling around N....then S towards DC yesterday....and so far this AM seems to be inching back N on the ens means towards our area. I dont dislike this trend at all right now.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    They cancelled winter back in October, even before Ji normally does.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Seems like its the snow Capitol
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Flurries in Ivyland. 33F
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Do you have the same GEPS and GEFS map for comparison purposes?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    EPS and GEPS respectable snow hits for Central and S parts of the PHL region early next week. GEFS ticked in our favor as well but still seems to be sniffing glue. 150 hrs to go. Plenty of time to trend either way. Strong signal on the ens means and a good spot to be attm.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    It is becoming clear to me that the Euro/CMC families are handling the west based nao rex a whole hell of alot better than the GFS family. For whatever reason as far back as when the GFS was the MRF I recall it struggling wrt the NS underneath blocking and it seems this is the case still 25 years later amidst all of the upgrades. I could be wrong in my analysis however and the GFS and GEFS may be the one on the right page, but recent trends seem to be in support of Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Jackpot and at the 150hr threshold!
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