Ralph Wiggum

EPS mean is much faster with the poleward shift of the stagnant PAC ridge. By 240 hrs it has already moved well into the EPO region. GEPS wants to keep things steady and status quo wrt recent maritime longwave pattern. Usually a sign a change is indeed coming when the ens start disagreeing more in the LR.

Merry Christmas !

Nothing expert about it. Just trying to put pieces of this wx puzzle together.

This setup coming in 7-14+ days reminds me of 2010 and 2016. Still thinking at some point the chances for a larger storm are increased this JFM. We see what the base state has been with high lat atl blocking and a near-stationary block in the N PAC. STJ has had some waves riding thru so I wouldn't rule out this links up with the PJ once or twice in our favor.

Merry Christmas and Happy Festivus!!

The mid lat ridges both in the PAC and Atl have been linking up with the high lat ridging for months now it seems. This is why im hoping the strat warming pulses continue to put pressure on the SPV. I know that effects the high lat blocking hemispherically so just wondering if that would do 'something' wrt how the mid lat ridging is propogating/reacting. Like you said though, the whole thing could backfire and the pattern go apesh!t hostile but tbh I will roll the dice with that as an option. This current base state needs a shakedown and isnt doing squat for us attm. Im also unsure if this current base state and pattern continue into mid/late January that peak climo will be able to help us or not.....but that's a different topic for a another day.

That damn anticyclone over the Aleutians is like the storm on Jupiter...it literally hasn't budged and isn't forecast to budge any time soon. Maybe if we r lucky we can get the ridging to extend poleward in the EPO but thats a crapshoot at this point. Posted elsewhere and I realize the SSWEs are generally hi lat based wrt shifting tellies, but maybe the forecast warming up at 10mb can at least shuffle things around. I would roll the dice with it even given the possibility the PAC degrades even worse but just to get the chance to shuffle it around is worth a try at this point.

For those playing along at home, the new MJO plots (which I dont particularly care for as a forecasting tool) stall in 7 and some members even retrograde back into 6. Only thing I can say based on this is that we are in for the same status quo ho-hum pattern for the next several weeks, likely taking us into the 2nd week of January before we see any meaningful changes. Where we go from there, positive or negative, who knows? But base state out in the PAC specifically is locked in and the MJO is also stalled (or locked in) with no catalyst on the horizon to shuffle the deck. Probably going to take something on a hemispheric scale to change things around. There are possibilities of a SPV split in the next 10 days as a warming event intensifies, so with lag factored in, maybe we can see some changes at higher lat in the PAC as a starting ground after Jan 3ish. Not sure what this will do for the -PNA however or if it will do anything favorable at higher lat in the PAC.

What time are the feats of strength?

Mesos aren't enthused

Yep, all or nothing the past decade I feel like.

Based on the depth of that -PNA and trof out west, i would expect a more stout SER tbh

Agree 1000%

Noted in my outlook that we in fact do likely see one larger storm this year. Chances higher for a hefty overunning event as the pattern folds in Feb. I also think the chances for icing are increasing significantly based on the stagnant 50/50, -PNA, and SER.

Another pattern headfake alert. Already seeing signs of the better ens looks in early Jan becoming flawed. Colder/seasonable? Sure. Sustainable pattern change? Nope. Rolling over on itself and reloading. The Jan thaw this year will be beach wx with all these mid and full lat ridges in the East flexing from the SER. Beat it down for a day or two then flex on roids.

Cape storms never disappoint. Never.

But the same period upcoming that is growing warmer on ops was also progged as a dramatically cooler regime 14 days prior on the ens. So who's to say we aren't getting head faked again for the 1st week of January?

Ha, no stj at 0z to all stj at 12z. I truly loathe LR op solutions at times....just comical the changes run to run.

Easy visually to see where the mean trof is anchored.

I posted regarding this in another subforum and was discussing with one of their posters for a few days now. Yep, this is the change the atmosphere needs imho. May hurt us, may help us.....but can't be any more boring than right now. The warming at 10mb across ens is encouraging.

We do. Did I typo in that post? Eta: whoops yes I did. Should read positive not negative. Ty for pointing that out.

One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related.

Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to positive and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. Eta: fixed typo

Once I saw the MJO getting discussed ad nauseum elsewhere 2 weeks ago, I knew exactly where we were headed. I made a "heads up" post regarding MJO for 2 winters ago that also got stuck in the same manner but was told that this time is different. Im not looking for arguments, hopefully we get some true discussion, but I would rather just be honest (different than a deb btw) than be like a JB-type dangling carrots and making people think things are golden. Yes, we will have a period of winter sandwiched in this season. It happens in even the most unproductive winters. My point isn't to cancel the season lol. It is to factually discuss the repetitive pattern until there are LEGIT mid range signs that it is going to shift around. We need the PNA to shift first and foremost imho but with the Nina and the PDO phase the way it is, that's a double whammy and tough order but it can and will happen eventually..just not sure when. Lots of patience.

The SER is going to continue to show as flat after day 10 with a weakness thru the Midwest and extending into the 50/50. This would be great most seasons. And this isn't just saying this is Nina, it sucks, deal with it. This is a fact if you go back over the past several weeks. This is the 3rd time we've been headfaked into some mythical pattern change recently. Then once the ens get under 10 days the SER shows stronger and begins linking with the NAO. Wash, rinse, repeat.......for now. I will likely be wrong in my thinking that the NAO may save us this winter and be a key factor. It looks like the -PNA and SER via Nina are our big players and we are going to need help from those for our window to open.