Euro still sniffing out next weekend threat. If anything, this is clearly favoring New England. That isn't to say we can't get something out of it but this Miller B is already looking well N and E across guidance where we would want to see it well to the South at this range. Euro op is also alone in developing slp as far South near Hatteras. We can certainly track it and watch for trends.
Snow has not stopped here in Warminster. Had another heavy batch roll thru over the past 90 mins. We are closing in on 12" now. 12k NAM has an additional 2-5" here in Bucks today. Wouldn't be shocked to see that verify. Radar has more backbuilding into the area.
12k NAM for tonight and thru tomorrow evening. Still some light stuff over parts of Eastern PA occurring during this frame. I mean, those additional totals alone are a nice winter storm for most of us that we would be tracking for days. Most models like the additional accums. We take.
Monster sprawling hp in S Central extending into E Canada and the NE with plenty of cold air advection around the PV lobe with the 50/50 locking things in. That would definitely work....the cold and the source of cold are there. Just need the upper features to line up a little more.
Those h5 maps are really close...very diff at the surface tho. Only diffs that standout the Euro has the stj sw off the SW coast which is likely helping the ridge out west a little more. Also, the euro is better in the AO where the GFS is more overspread into the EPO. 50/50 evident on both. Of course the Euro is a monster at the surface. GFS (and other ops) don't phase the streams like the Euro does and you can see the stj wave separate off the coast on that model. Euro is somewhat alone for now but it wouldn't take much adjusting on the GFS and CMC
I knew by 8am we were fooked with the sleet trend, just didn't want to cave so early. Sleet hung on alot longer than anyone expected tho. Yes, glad we are under SN+ attm