Ralph Wiggum

Don't want to be "that guy" but after Jan 28th the pattern looks better imo with ridging migrating back to the PNA region and the NAO not quite as intense. That is probably the look that we will need as the confluence under the current block is just too much. Normally I wouldn't look that far ahead but this is the first time this entire winter there looks to be something more likely to produce with less extreme tellies yet all in the right places. Guess what I'm saying is we clearly aren't scoring with epic near-textbook HL blocking so after the 28th we are seeing less extreme and more relaxed 'normal' looks and I'm winning to wager IF that look holds is when we will ALL start seeing things produce. Patience.....this winter isn't anywhere near over just yet.

And for comparison Ji has been on these boards since the early-mid 90s and in his late 40s/early 50s.

Those threats are now getting sheared to hell like most of the others this season. This pattern is either sheared/suppressed or cutter in terms of real weather. H5 is pretty good but the surface is just simply unable to produce.

Already vanished on the GFS from last night. Bummer. Euro has a gradient with 60s underneath us.

Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse.

Honestly, I've been saying March is when we score due to the sustained remnants of HL blocking and the pattern getting more convoluted than usual. Im not giving up until May! Doubt we are going to see anything sustained wrt wall to wall winter weather for weeks on end tho....I've already written that off. And that is fine with me tbh.

T-minus 45 mins til PSU comes in to remind us all that the pattern change is still on target and there are ample opportunities with specific dates and how the progression will evolve.

Yeah, this situation is not ideal. Clipper trajectory is great BUT normally clippers have a departing PV with antecedent arctic air in place to squeeze out every drop of precip from the atmosphere. We don't have that luxury this time which is likely part of what is causing the low surface precip reflection. Maybe we can at least manage a stripe of coating type stuff somewhere but who knows. Eta: yet another example of how a pattern can look great but lack of cold air is killing us. Clipper patterns should produce in mid-late Jan even in the lamest winters. This is rock bottom.

Weeklies should be interesting later.

PSU says just wait, the great opportunity is right around the corner. Isotherm says we lost our opportunity and Feb is trash. Choose wisely.

gfs para says stay patient, early Feb will be rockin!

This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential. Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS.

HP in N Plains replaced with LP. Minor changes

Looked to me the NAO tries to link up with the SER which isn't crazy in this progression given the PAC. Remember, the PAC is running the show here essentially and if the ridge in the central PAC backs and pumps enough, then the SER naturally has a response to flex. Couple that with the retrograding NAO that attempts to link up and the pattern is teetering precariously on caving in on itself. Not saying this is right, but is certainly a viable solution given the progression in the PAC. You have been spot on discussion of the progression in the NAO, but we should be taking notes in recent times on how the PAC is dictating the conus pattern Moreso in recent years and what may have been gold just a few years ago has changed quite a bit. Again, not saying this is correct, but just something to consider.

We should have a clipper system early in the week as an appetizer to lay down some foundation. Then maybe something around the 21st is being sniffed out. The pattern looks like a powder keg about to go off around the 26th. So plenty of tracking chances coming up. I agree that yes, some of us, myself included, have forgotten that these patterns really test your patience but have a very high probability of working out for us eventually. Go Flyers!

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

I pretty much agree with everything u said. And I'm convinced we WILL score and likely score big. Patience will pay off. Just have to see if its gonna be a one and done, a couple of weeks of sustained winter with a couple of SECS, a slow buildup to a consistent producing pattern, a KU Archambault event, etc. It will happen sooner than later and my confidence is sold on the fact the HL blocking isn't going anywhere even when the LR and weeklies at the end were showing otherwise. We are kicking the pattern flip can over and over and that is a great sign. Like someone else said, this isn't a shutout look where we aren't scoring. This is a pretty much sustained workable pattern evolving with loads of chances. We've just had a string of poor luck past 10 days. Things are about to break in our favor.

And there is your gradient pattern overunning look. Juicy and west to east. We can get some of our biggest thumps with these. Let's keep it going!

Stuffing I made was baby kale, butternut squash, caramelized onion, toasted pecan, craisins, pears, and blue cheese. Back to wx....

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range. Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough

This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st.

Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence.

Doesn't matter. Hug the living piss outta that shit bro!

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.