Ralph Wiggum

Next week into late month beginning to light up on the ensembles with a few chances for winter weather...probably the most legit ens means storm clustering and snowfall means I've seen at this range since the mid Dec storm. First threat is Tuesday. Blocking migrates into the Baffin Bay region with a west-based -NAO. Trof centered along the west coast with a flat broad trof extending SW->NE across the country. This is the look of a gradient pattern or overunning SWFE with waves coming out of the Southwest and riding the gradient to the Midwest then being forced under the blocking and following the gradient W->E from there. It actually looks to be the catalyst for several systems/waves moving out of the Southwest before a transient PNA pops later on providing an even greater potential for a winter storm. But first things first. You can see on the GEFS H5 map clearly the first s/w ejecting out of the Southwest on Sunday. The block is in a good position and still rather strong. Meanwhile a potential 50/50 low is in ideal position. At the surface on the GEFS means, the primary gets to the Ohio Valley when it feels the block to the North and is forced to continue East (even ESE on some op runs) and off the coast. This sets up a fairly decent CAD signature and will spell messy frozen precip for whoever is on the N side of the gradient. Exact track and precip types should become more clear 2nd half of the week. For now, just know the GEFS have a pretty good look and several op runs have also shown good potential with this first wave ejecting out of the Southwest. The EPS are generally in-line with the GEFS. Sysyem moves out of the Southwest and follows the trof SW->NE before feeling the block and being forced under the region. It is usually a good sign when both major ens means are signaling a winter weather event for the region, even if varying slightly on strength, track, and precip amts. The important thing for now is that the pattern is changing and we are likely to get some positive effects from the block over Baffin Bay finally. Patience paying off? Also on both ens means are signs of a followup wave emerging out of the Southern Rockies on the heels of the Tuesday system. Too far out but there have been signs for a while that I noted last week where the PNA attempts to briefly go positive enough to *maybe* allow one of these screaming NS waves to amplify just enough for another storm. Again, ens are varying on how that would play out, but the signals are positive that as we head into late month and early Feb we will continue to have legit tracking chances, at the very least. I still believe this period holds some of the better potential of the season thus far.

Pretty certain nobody that I am aware of bet on sustained deep winter cold for any point during this Nina season. A shot here and there. And for the umpteenth time, we don't want nor need deep vodka cold for weeks on end.

No JMA love?

Takeaway from 12z suite...guidance is starting to see infiltration of arctic air into the pattern over the lower 48. It.may not be a huge window (end of Jan thru the first week of Feb??) before the PAC potentially goes back to crud. This is a good takeaway imo and definitely not a bad thing....unless of course you believe verbatim that N FL, GA, and SC get an historic snowstorm. That guidance again is just showing the cold depth finally.

Ditto. Paul is a good friend and adds alot to the group discussion.

Jan 27-Feb 7 give or take a day either side. At least 3 threats.

That period holds the best potential of the season thus far without question. You can do a loop of the eps ans see exactly how the pattern is progressing and repeating itself between the 23rd and last days of Jan.

I know what it shows bruh. When I feel the need to celebrate in my home forum, I will. For now I'm pulling for my Southern friends to cash in for once. Eta: and you know better....this isn't the final solution

Trended the right way at H5 imho. Much better than going opposite direction. If it means a minor snow event vs a complicated cutter Miller B quasi hybrid transfer ull pass snow/ice to rain/slot bs then I'm hugging it.

Yes sir! We gladly take.

R u serious? R u really serious right now? If I were you I would be celebrating any blue at this point.

For the love of everything sacred in this world, can the GEFS please cave to the EPS just this one time this season?

I guess it's a chicken/egg thing but the biggest culprit in this is the central PAC ridge blob with the full lat trof centered on the West Coast. Those full lat features are wreaking havoc downstream. If the -NAO wasn't there we would have a severe SER. We r lucky to even have a threat of any frozen at all with that look out West. @CAPE what has been the time frame for the EPS caving to the GEFS this season? Between 156-180 hrs? IIRC it was you that was tracking this. Maybe was @psuhoffman?

Its the PAC side that is overwhelming the pattern downstream. The natural response to that monster trof on the W Coast is to raise heights/ pump a ridge in the SE. Need a larger -NAO block to counter that.

Are you coding on a Commodore 64?

I thought it was a TWC thing

Just a side note, when I post in this subforum regarding threats I am posting for THIS region, not PHL. And vice versa.

Nice March weather today. Showers and 47F.

That is not a zonal flow look on a smoothed LR means at 354hrs as posted.

Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory.

Not saying we can't back into something over the next 12 days or so but chances are the shred factory suppression and cutter/late transfer pattern continues. Been saying for a bit that our best chances during this next 12ish days would be via some sort of clipper and I stick by that thinking. Maybe we sneak in some overunning thump around the 25th/26th when the trof digs into the Southwest and ejects wave(s) out under the gradient behind the confluence. But the better opportunities for a region-wide score looks to be after the 28th when the AO and NAO migrate to a more normalized near-neutral look. Temps will always be a concern but this deep into winter we won't need a massive EPO or vodka cold. Of course cutters could still be in play but with the SER pushed back this increases the support for my thoughts that post Jan 28th thru at least Feb 7 is the period to wait on and continue practicing patience. People are getting ansy, especially me, but I'm seeing more hope than I normally chirp about and I generally refrain from being overly optimistic wrt LR looks. Delayed....but never denied!

Thanks for doing that research. This is what I made a post about earlier...years featuring the -AO/-NAO in Dec-Jan generally have produced a SECS/MECS. I just wasn't 100% sure on the enso phases in those years, so again thanks. Im keying on Jan 28-Feb 7 give or take as a 10ish day stretch to produce at least 1 widespread SECS for the region, with 'possibly' as many as 3 solid threats total. I know you are interested in the 26th threat leading up. Im not 100% sold on that one just yet even tho it look more interesting on the euro family now, as that could be the last in the progression before we transition to a more workable(?) look. But we seem to both agree the period beyond that one does look just as good, probably even better with some relaxing up top.

I know its the gfs op at range but there is your HA signature. Long duration overunning while ull catches up and meets at the coast last days of Jan while the AO/NAO relax/flip. Get a better PNA ridge out west even if transient and we will be talking KU during the waning days of Jan thru Feb 7ish.

I'm certainly not using 2010 as an analog, tho there r similarities as u noted. I went back and looked at past 25 winters with sustained -AO/-NAO and most featured some sort of SECS/MECS as the pattern transitioned. Now I didnt factor enso into that. Maybe if I get a chance I will do so later.

Which is exactly my point....we aren't scoring during the heart of the epic blocking pattern. We are likely going to hit when the pattern breaks down or flips completely. Might be a one-off, who knows? But chances seem higher than usual for a HA event this season.