Ralph Wiggum

Well, suppression is the bigger concern for next week if we are going to fail. At that point Imma just throw my hands up and question why I enjoy this hobby lol. But I dont think there is cause for alarm yet. We are over 160 hrs out for wave 1 and we have literally run the gamut of solutions today alone. And wave 1 dictates the baroclinic boundary for the followup waves. So just need to keep watching for any trends. The ens means are on board and imo that along with the pattern supporting wintry threats here are what is important attm....not how an ops model bounces around like a jumping bean from one run to the next.

Certainly too early to get discouraged given we've run the gamut of solutions today. But why is it we cannot get a solid trend to make it to the 150 hr lead time?

Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done.

Were you around with us on usenet when it was ne.weather? And #neweather on MIRC? I have some of those transcripts saved on a floppy disk (remember those?) in the archives. Little Ian used to get so excited at the models back then lol.

You chasin?

Getting a bit ahead but if my memory of this type of pattern progression is correct, should be at 'least' one more trackable threat first week of Feb. Historically in a Nina, this pattern breaks down soon thereafter but there are currently conflicting signals due to another episode of wind reversal in the SPV which could keep NAO blocking around longer suppressing the SER which generally flexes during a Nina in most Febs past.

What exactly is he sniffing again? Eta: damn you @WxUSAF ninja'd

March 2001 scenario. Complicated.

Welcome aboard the crazy train.

I have a feeling based on what the ops looks like irt track and what the gfs shows, the eps mean is going to be a real beaut (Clark).

Getting closer to that 150 hr threshold on guidance. Almost go-time on this one.

Snowing lightly here, 39F

I completely get your argument here...the DEPTH and EXPANSE of cold air or lack thereof. But one day it seems some are suggesting that just cold enough will work. The next day its a case of not cold enough need colder. I personally like the potential setup. Yes, the higher in latitude, the better with these gradients. But with the 50/50, a rex block over or near Baffin Bay, a flow coming out of the Yukon this all *should* work for places nearby both of us. Im not absolutely loving it to the point im 100% locked in, but confidence is starting to increase. Its nice to be tracking again. And as always, timing of ridges, trofs, and shortwaves will make all the diffs.

The 28th system is really starting to get its act together on guidance as well. PNA ridge briefly amplifies allowing a NS vort to amplify under the block. Fun tracking times are upon us.

Op guidance is really starting to show hints at the surface of the implications of finally having arctic air in our source regions, the 50/50 low in place, and waves riding the gradient line from SW to ENE next week very close or just S of our latitude. Looks like a potentially long duration or 2 (3?) part wave train overunning the cold dome at the surface. Some areas are going to be in for quite the mess next week. Very similar look in some regards to 1994 icing. Maybe not same exact areas but wave hanging off coast and wave in OV with CAD in-between followed up by reoccurring waves. I am NOT currently calling for a repeat of a 94 ice storm at the moment, but interior especially could be in line for some copious amounts of mixed precip. Complicated and I'm not sure we do complicated very successfully. Become clearer tho that a wintry mess is becoming a legit tracking event now.

Not really South. First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z. Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1.

Yeah, either a slider OR by the looks of it might try and go neg and turn the corner. Crapshoot on an ops at that range. Plenty of tracking and potential with ample cold air around....thats my takeaway. Eta: there is another sw diving due S from the N GL trying to interact under the blocking as well. Loads of potential!

Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves.

3rd wave looks promising still. Didnt there used to be a rule in these progressions that the 3rd wave was usually the one to watch? I remember that from the eastern days.

Yep vs the 12z it definitely surged more SW flow ahead of the system. Close enough and far enough out to still have a chance....both regions.

Awaiting the eps later but the Euro op is much less ridge and much more 50/50 and overall improved setup going into the 26th vs 0z jan 18

A larger window of opportunity or a larger window in the event you decide to leap out?

Next week into late month beginning to light up on the ensembles with a few chances for winter weather...probably the most legit ens means storm clustering and snowfall means I've seen at this range since the mid Dec storm. First threat is Tuesday. Blocking migrates into the Baffin Bay region with a west-based -NAO. Trof centered along the west coast with a flat broad trof extending SW->NE across the country. This is the look of a gradient pattern or overunning SWFE with waves coming out of the Southwest and riding the gradient to the Midwest then being forced under the blocking and following the gradient W->E from there. It actually looks to be the catalyst for several systems/waves moving out of the Southwest before a transient PNA pops later on providing an even greater potential for a winter storm. But first things first. You can see on the GEFS H5 map clearly the first s/w ejecting out of the Southwest on Sunday. The block is in a good position and still rather strong. Meanwhile a potential 50/50 low is in ideal position. At the surface on the GEFS means, the primary gets to the Ohio Valley when it feels the block to the North and is forced to continue East (even ESE on some op runs) and off the coast. This sets up a fairly decent CAD signature and will spell messy frozen precip for whoever is on the N side of the gradient. Exact track and precip types should become more clear 2nd half of the week. For now, just know the GEFS have a pretty good look and several op runs have also shown good potential with this first wave ejecting out of the Southwest. The EPS are generally in-line with the GEFS. Sysyem moves out of the Southwest and follows the trof SW->NE before feeling the block and being forced under the region. It is usually a good sign when both major ens means are signaling a winter weather event for the region, even if varying slightly on strength, track, and precip amts. The important thing for now is that the pattern is changing and we are likely to get some positive effects from the block over Baffin Bay finally. Patience paying off? Also on both ens means are signs of a followup wave emerging out of the Southern Rockies on the heels of the Tuesday system. Too far out but there have been signs for a while that I noted last week where the PNA attempts to briefly go positive enough to *maybe* allow one of these screaming NS waves to amplify just enough for another storm. Again, ens are varying on how that would play out, but the signals are positive that as we head into late month and early Feb we will continue to have legit tracking chances, at the very least. I still believe this period holds some of the better potential of the season thus far.

Pretty certain nobody that I am aware of bet on sustained deep winter cold for any point during this Nina season. A shot here and there. And for the umpteenth time, we don't want nor need deep vodka cold for weeks on end.

No JMA love?