Ralph Wiggum

They also have one of the best backup goalies in the league Brian Elliott who stopped 40 tonight in a shutout. This team is the real deal. Long run of ineptitude now finally contenders again.

Fyp

How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression, that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in.

Well, suppression is the bigger concern for next week if we are going to fail. At that point Imma just throw my hands up and question why I enjoy this hobby lol. But I dont think there is cause for alarm yet. We are over 160 hrs out for wave 1 and we have literally run the gamut of solutions today alone. And wave 1 dictates the baroclinic boundary for the followup waves. So just need to keep watching for any trends. The ens means are on board and imo that along with the pattern supporting wintry threats here are what is important attm....not how an ops model bounces around like a jumping bean from one run to the next.

Certainly too early to get discouraged given we've run the gamut of solutions today. But why is it we cannot get a solid trend to make it to the 150 hr lead time?

Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done.

Were you around with us on usenet when it was ne.weather? And #neweather on MIRC? I have some of those transcripts saved on a floppy disk (remember those?) in the archives. Little Ian used to get so excited at the models back then lol.

You chasin?

Getting a bit ahead but if my memory of this type of pattern progression is correct, should be at 'least' one more trackable threat first week of Feb. Historically in a Nina, this pattern breaks down soon thereafter but there are currently conflicting signals due to another episode of wind reversal in the SPV which could keep NAO blocking around longer suppressing the SER which generally flexes during a Nina in most Febs past.

What exactly is he sniffing again? Eta: damn you @WxUSAF ninja'd

March 2001 scenario. Complicated.

Welcome aboard the crazy train.

I have a feeling based on what the ops looks like irt track and what the gfs shows, the eps mean is going to be a real beaut (Clark).

Getting closer to that 150 hr threshold on guidance. Almost go-time on this one.

Snowing lightly here, 39F

I completely get your argument here...the DEPTH and EXPANSE of cold air or lack thereof. But one day it seems some are suggesting that just cold enough will work. The next day its a case of not cold enough need colder. I personally like the potential setup. Yes, the higher in latitude, the better with these gradients. But with the 50/50, a rex block over or near Baffin Bay, a flow coming out of the Yukon this all *should* work for places nearby both of us. Im not absolutely loving it to the point im 100% locked in, but confidence is starting to increase. Its nice to be tracking again. And as always, timing of ridges, trofs, and shortwaves will make all the diffs.

The 28th system is really starting to get its act together on guidance as well. PNA ridge briefly amplifies allowing a NS vort to amplify under the block. Fun tracking times are upon us.

Op guidance is really starting to show hints at the surface of the implications of finally having arctic air in our source regions, the 50/50 low in place, and waves riding the gradient line from SW to ENE next week very close or just S of our latitude. Looks like a potentially long duration or 2 (3?) part wave train overunning the cold dome at the surface. Some areas are going to be in for quite the mess next week. Very similar look in some regards to 1994 icing. Maybe not same exact areas but wave hanging off coast and wave in OV with CAD in-between followed up by reoccurring waves. I am NOT currently calling for a repeat of a 94 ice storm at the moment, but interior especially could be in line for some copious amounts of mixed precip. Complicated and I'm not sure we do complicated very successfully. Become clearer tho that a wintry mess is becoming a legit tracking event now.

Not really South. First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z. Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1.

Yeah, either a slider OR by the looks of it might try and go neg and turn the corner. Crapshoot on an ops at that range. Plenty of tracking and potential with ample cold air around....thats my takeaway. Eta: there is another sw diving due S from the N GL trying to interact under the blocking as well. Loads of potential!

Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves.

3rd wave looks promising still. Didnt there used to be a rule in these progressions that the 3rd wave was usually the one to watch? I remember that from the eastern days.

Yep vs the 12z it definitely surged more SW flow ahead of the system. Close enough and far enough out to still have a chance....both regions.

Awaiting the eps later but the Euro op is much less ridge and much more 50/50 and overall improved setup going into the 26th vs 0z jan 18

A larger window of opportunity or a larger window in the event you decide to leap out?