Ralph Wiggum

Block working the wrong way.

Fringed

That was the original thoughts and looks from 3-4 days ago ie wintry mess for almost everyone here. It's almost laughable how guidance swings to such suppressed looks but somehow almost always without fail revert back to the original threat looks. Not over yet but nobody here should be expecting an all snow event from this. Not saying it can't happen for some spots but this was never a flush hit all-snow look. The snow zone has pretty much always been a narrow swath.

Ens and ops really nudged N today with the Mon-Tue system. We need the trend to stop soon and even start to recorrect. Still thinking wintry mix mess for many here, but the continued ticks N are certainly disturbing. Would help with the late week system but I'm not a fan of sacrificing a storm for the next threat.

Need a vomit emoji reaction

Closed low depicted at 96 hrs S of VA Beach trying to counter. That's new at that hour.

Probably worthy of its own thread

Do you remember the 46-day control(?) Euro snowfall map from last year? Had us over 55" and we got under 3" during the period iirc. I take these maps with a grain of salt but I agree with you and as I said several times the past 10 days, this upcoming period would at LEAST provide tracking opportunities as the best *potential* of the season thus far. So far so good.

We could probably use a new thread to discuss what to title the new threat thread. Save the banter thread for bs. New thread naming is serious stuff and God knows we don't have enough threads.

Is that a good or a concerned about downside ?

What causes this from continuing NE or even getting captured rather than diving ESE off of Hatteras?

JMA That model really likes this subforum for the run duration.

JMA

As progged verbatim, coastal areas would get a long overdue warning criteria event at the very least (amount other areas of course). Enjoy for another 12 hours we know it will change one way or the other.

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Models are hinting at farther N albeit weakened primary for the Tuesday system but more importantly showing better CAD and / or cooling via precip rates East of the Apps. Not surprised given the banana high of Arctic origin pressed under the rex block to the North. Still has the look of a wintry mix/mess for a good chunk ending as snow possibly.

Lol, dont waste your bandwidth. Look who you are talking to....it's Dr No's distant second cousin twice removed Nurse Absolutely Not. He's a deb on everything unless flakes are actually falling at his house and could care less about anyone else here or in other subs. Teasing you obviously Red but seriously, if this hobby has your outlook so pessimistic you may want to consider collecting stamps or something. Keep hope alive brother.

PSU has alot of storms....including the potential one next week. Can we start numbering them like the PD storms to avoid confusion?

The cool thing about the usual 10 day Euro threats we see almost every run, they are moving up closer in time and replaced with another day 10 threat moving up etc. Cool cycle to have finally. We (DC subforum region primarily) need to get the early week system to produce and break the ice.

Overunning almost always ends up coming N. Many of us are trying to gauge how much the rex block will play a role in precip shield trajectory and latitudinal advancement.

We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well.

Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet:

Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.

GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah. Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same.....