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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Surface low is actually farther W and maybe a mile N of the 12z run.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Looking at thermals, NAM actually was quite a bit warmer. ICON just came in way N c-2" for most S of I-80. I don't think we are done with the ticks N and warming yet either.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I sure was....thanks for the quick reply.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    We just got NAM'd. Am I reading that right 5-10" mainly snow here?
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice cluster of stronger lows just S of Nags Head North to VA Beach latitude on the 18z.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    18z Euro is 3-6" here in Central Bucks. Mostly all snow. 2-4" here in Warminster area with 5" lollis is my first guess (more sleet = lower end, all snow = higher end of range with the 5" spots). 1-3" south of TP with mixing issues. Subject to change.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Guess that clustering of lows there from the 6z GEFS has legs.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    18z GFS doubles down on the late week system. Farther N. Stronger sw, better ridging out in front. Getting closer.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS doubling down. 90% of the season the Euro/EPS caved to the GFS except with the Jan 25 system. Can we get the magic back?!?
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Wow.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks better. Stronger sw, tpv slower to pull out of central Canada, separation, more ridging thru 108.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM 18z is a hit to start and colder.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Headed ESE out of WV. Follow the snow trajectory and verbatim that's a decent hit. But NAM at range and all those caveats.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Most of Southern part of PA was about to get NAM'd at 18z but the run ended right as it was ramping up. Setup looks like it would be all or majority snow.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Comical...GFS/GEFS and CMC/GEPS were lax yesterday with the late week system where the Euro/EPS were honking. Today they completely reverse roles...GFS/CMC families honking more than the Euro/EPS from yesterday while the Euro/EPS crap the bed completely. You can't make this stuff up.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    We still have the JMA on the verge of bigger things.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    I think with the euro upgrades in an effort to rid the Southwest bias of holding back shortwaves and energy it is notably overcompensating in the MR/LR these days and has been too fast at times with the stj coming out of the Southwest. Likely one of the many reasons the model isn't quite as reliable as it once was.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Try convincing your wife to buy a cabin up in Redfield NY. Mine thinks it's a weekend place...but hoping to make it a permanent residence at least for a couple of years.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    That one could actually be the best potential of the next 3 IF things progress the way they are progged.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Storm 1 or 2?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is a conveyor belt of systems thru first week of Feb+. Lots of tracking potential ahead.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, models suggest if both systems next week fail, we have Jan 31-Feb 1 storm to track. GFS doing its normal cutter thing, CMC more aggressive with the cold push and blocking. Regardless, both models are active asf and one system after the other thru first week of Feb. Plenty of chances.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Oh snap, near my old stomping grounds. Familiar with Secane? Used to live a block from Imperial Pizza.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    And right on cue.....GFS, GEFS, CMC.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly....2 completely different UA looks and still 2 solidly acceptable outcomes. This one has more going for it than most recent systems have.
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