Ralph Wiggum

EPS went South. Oh well, stick a fork in it

Absolutely yes in these Archambault setups.

I wouldn't kick that outta bed

I posted there earlier that earlier today it was like their football team was up by 21 pts at halftime vs Tom Brady. They kicked a fg and are up 24 with 12mins left in the 3rd now. But Brady is pissed and staring angrily on the other sideline.

What are your totals on the para and euro? I'm at work cant look. Ty

Lock it up. We need a DC-BOS KU. ALL of us. Then we can go out for beers.

I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region, these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm.

Euro doesn't flip in one run...usually baby steps if it is gonna cave

And this is the risk we run with Archambault events as the block pulls away. Allows warming and farther N track. She presents this fail scenario nicely in her thesis on NAO fluxes

Some pingers mixing in now

Drizzle. 34F

But that was skewed severely. There were hints with this system that it would shear out. More likely we get something early next week than not. Just a question of how much.

Seriously. We all need a Mid-Atl (to Philly ) special to right this ship.

This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji?

Was the clustering of farther offshore solutions there at 6z? I noticed the 6z GEFS picked up on those a bit too.

The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this.

Again, the ICON, but shows the complexity in trying to get a Euro result. 4 separate sw's trying to interact flying around the retro'ing block. No model will firmly grasp this complexity until under 84 hrs out imho.

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

All but 1 member of the EPS is honking. That is more support for this at this range than I've seen since 2016.

Third time is the charm. We might not be the bullseye when all is said and done but we are getting some snow out of this.

Best. WWA System. Ever.

Most of her papers are available to read if you google Heather Archambault

I feel like Ji tonight...a major accomplishment via digital snow. I think I finally get a sense for what the guy feels.

Big ones show themselves early. Been on the radar since last week. CMC deserves a biscuit if this happens?

Third wave always holds the best potential and couple that progression with an Archambault event and we may be talking legit KU in another couple days.