Ralph Wiggum

I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm.

Yep, the usual N trend with these types in Nina years has commenced. For the other sub, Brady just threw a bomb on first down...made the 2-pt conversion. 24-17...6:35 left in the 3rd qtr. The lead is slipping away.

Did some research and the last time we had a similar setup to this during a Niña that ultimately ended up producing was.......January 1996 Eta: wrt big closed ull rolling thru the midwest/OV, transfer, ultimate capture

We've yet to be bullseyed here. We r losing that cursed time frame by 0z tonight/6z tomorrow where you dont want to be "in the zone". This has all the familiar earmarks of a good storm here. I like where we are sitting attm.

Tom Brady is starting the drive on the opponent 49 yard line down 24-9 with 7 mins left in the 3rd. Lots of time.

So wound up captured and tugged inland is a viable option still is what you are saying?

Yepper. The op is going to cave at 12z....Mark my words. The 6z eps are tucked really tight to the coast. Almost too N and too tucked but verbatim is an almost perfect track for this area.

6z NAVGEM doesn't get snow into SE PA until Tuesday AM via the pivot and deformation band. Hardly any WAA stuff...just a stalled crawler N along the coast.

6z NAVGEM clobbers you with the deform band @CAPE ... thats a stall in the right spot for your area.

Almost all guidance is in sync with low pressure redeveloping just to the South of Hatteras near Ocracoke. Then they diverge thereafter with the strength, depth, and location of the 2nd sw diving into the back of the trof. To phase in time and capture is the real question and difference between the slp headed NE/ENE and being a minor/moderate event or drifting N and tucking into the DelMarVa on its slow journey NNE delivering a significant. Should be able to muster a warning level event out of this for SE PA at the very least.

The crazy uncle has been hitting the moonshine again

Hmmm, H5 implied a better hit. Thats why I dislike snow maps at this juncture.

That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common.

GEFS have a strong signal/cluster of lows that stall just E of the DelMarVa and essentially stall/crawl to just off the S NJ coast to the benchmark.

Tom Brady's team D just got a safety to make it 24-9 and are getting the ball back with 10 mins to go in the third (see inside joke from earlier today).

In that case, the GEFS is loving us!

Gulf feed. Very impressive!

Meh, snow hole here. Toss it .

If you go back and look at the past few runs, the block is relaxing its grip (trend) more and the overall lw is adjusting N. Diff is the vort is the same lat essentially....for now. That will tick N later on in a couple days. The nao ridge is still there just enough to not pull the trof too far n and not strong enough to shit the bed over the OV. Buckle up.

The euro is overdone imho and too far S. It is being hugged because it is extreme but ask yourself honestly....when was the last time the most extreme solution panned out, euro or not. That isn't a bet that I would want to take. Using the euro as a high end piece of guidance but following along with the more 'tame' group of modeling seems the way to go here until the euro gets unanimous solid support.

Deformation band won't be disjointed. Most of the region sits underneath for 18+ hrs

CMC is a shellacking!

Fyp

GFS is very ICONish. The euro is sort of alone attm tbh with the Southern thing. I believe the truth lies right now between a euro and GFS solution much like every storm this winter. This is about the time the Euro begins to meet in the middle with the GFS. Still don't think suppression will be our fail possibility here with what is happening in Eastern Canada. Seems most folks are keyed in on the vort track on the euro et al and not paying attention to the relaxing up top which will not allow for the South ticks to continue on the euro. We are in an outstanding spot attm.

I honestly don't remember. I can tell you it doesn't happen often tho. Jan 2016 might have.