Ralph Wiggum

Windshield wiper effect....it might tick S a few runs, then N a few. Bottom line, the goal posts are narrowing and we are smack in the middle

Tom Brady carted off the field with the game tied at 24 and 8 mins to play in the game

Just came back from my 2nd covid 19 vacc shot (hooray!)....is this a side affect? Am I hallucinating or is this happening?

Every Miller B is unique but in general you are right. Jan 96 (and there have been others) was more a hit down here, less up there. There are times it can go the other way. Definitely isn't something written in stone.

6z eps alot better. Gotta smell the rain for the best snows. Eps is also ticking that snow max SW from NYC. Clustering over our BM spot. I think we start to see the windshield wiper effect now. Everything lining up for a SECS/MECS west of the Del River at very worst.

Yooooo, FACTS!!!

Old EE rule in effect (Euro/ETA)

Finally feels like winter and right on cue. Ok maybe not, it got can-kicked a few times but 3rd range (Jan 28-Feb 7ish) looks to be the charm. Patience pays off.

Flizzard out in Blue Bell at work. 27F

Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better?

6Z EPS are really nice. Deform band hangs over SE PA. Storm tucked into the benchmark. The means is slowly drifting that snow max that some guidance has over NYC down more and more to the SW closer to parts of PA now. Snowfall mean here was around 8". Suffice to say the 'general' idea this run is a 6-12"er. We take.

A quicker primary death is preferred yes?

EPS looked good...just took a peek. Lost the Lancaster 993mb low from 18z so tightening up in clustering near our benchmark spot off the DelMarVa. Still curious why the subsidence zone or area with lighter total qpf amounts continue to be shown in SE PA? That has been showing up consistently for the past 36 hrs of runs. Dry slot?? Or some other atmospheric divergence thingy going on as the storm occludes?

This will happen with a block moving out. Suppression was never a concern imo and seeing the 850 jump 150 N each of the past 3 runs and not slowing down that trend has us sweating bullets in the PHL forum. Let's all hold hands and pray for that 75 mile SE jump that PSU is begging for.

Sounds good. Euro op in its wheelhouse right now. When do you feel it is wise to start putting more weight in the op and phase out the ens for forecasting this one?

The 850 low is in a perfect spot....right now. But it has done more than just 'tick' N the past 3 runs. It has jumped N 125 miles on 3 consecutive euro runs. We are fine right now, but the trend is alarming honestly.....we r out of wiggle room SE PA i95 and 15 miles N and W. Careful what you wish for. I warned about this N jump in a Nina with a block pulling away and debated with those in other subs saying this was going to be squashed. It could flip either way still right now we have 3.5 days to go. Too close for comfort. And justifying with "we'll be fine all the big one mix" isn't the same argument anymore. This could go from being a big one to a big letdown quickly. Temper expectations.

Ugh, Brady just knotted the game at 24 for the MA crew after they were up big at the half and popping champagne. Now u had to go and do the same? This is still trending N and warmish. Let's pause.on the celebrations until Saturday night. I have a very uneasy feeling about this still. 3 for 4 tonight.....that 1 miss is looming large attm and staring us in the face with an evil smirk. Need to get to 4 for 4 soon on one of these suites.

This is a deformation crushing look for SE PA N and W of I95. Hardly moves too. 2 for 3

Tucked and stalled 40 miles SSE of Cape May as per the UKIE is benchmark for a classic here.

H5 is beautiful thru 102

Just saw the UKMET. Step to the good. Might call it a BIG step. Ninja'd

You're not wrong. NAM was close to the euro at 84hrs so there's that.

Ok, 1 for 2 Has the crazy uncle woken from his drunken slumber yet?

CMC 6-12" most of SE PA We are 1 for 3 so far tonight