Ralph Wiggum

NAM doesn't phase in the 2nd energy early enough, implies a hair late on the neg tilt structure, stacking, and potential capture. It is around where the 6z eps was. Not a horrible run tho at all. 6-12"/7-14" seems like the general idea among guidance up here right now if u toss the extremes on either side. Very nice storm up here. Could still nudge either way, but I dont hate the NAM. Close to a Bigger storm solution here.

Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions.

Yes it did....and even yesterday's storm in the SE it was an even farther southern outlier for a bit with a weaker ull traversing out of the Southwest that never really amplified.

This is exactly my thinking as well might not be until 0z we see the changes. But I bet if all other guidance remains it will begin to trend back.

If you look at all other guidance, the Euro dramatically weakens the energy coming out of the Southwest to the point it is almost a flat wave. It makes sense to think that to keep energy rolling thru u need it to be weaker. Probably is something in the algorithm in a particular area or with a particular SD vort [if h5 sw is between lat x longitude y and > 35cv SD +3 then etc etc]. Maybe I'm off base but like I said, red taggers in other subs noted this last year when the euro would suddenly crap the bed with systems and be alone in a solution. Certainly plausible. The euro isn't the King anymore. Could this be why?

12z euro is going to start to come back....0z tonight latest. Mark my words. It has NO support with how it handles the energy coming on the coast in the short range. I truly think they put something in the algorithm when they 'upgraded' it to remove the old Southwest bias and I've noticed whenever energy rolls into California is has mysteriously weakened it to rush it East. Now my total amateur thought is this actually makes total sense. If you wrote a computer program that had a bias of being too strong in an area and digging subsequent trof too strongly in that area, wouldn't your bandaid be to counteract that code by being weaker out there when energy is detected moving into the region? I dunno, I'm pulling straws here on why the euro is all alone BUT I have in fact noticed this weakening out in the W and SW many times when our systems come in since the upgrade. We've discussed this in other subs and even some red taggers agreed they did something to the algorithm out there to cause vorts to weaken too fast and not amplify which allows for the energy to remain more progressive and not dig in and get stuck out there. Long story short, I'm willing to bet this is what the euro is doing yet again. Besides, we are out of the euro wheelhouse now. The runs 2 days ago with the bomb solution was the euros notoriously best range. We'll see....i.am confident it.comes back even if just with ticks and not big jumps.

6z NAVGEM is a crusher!!

What did I miss? 6Z says the Euro was all just a bad dream. As you were.

Was just going to post this. Sweet dreams guys and gals. See you in the am. Tomorrow should be fun with mesos getting in better range.

Need UKIE on board, make this 6 for 6 going into the Euro. I won't make it to the euro but if I can go to sleep with a 6 for 6 under 100hrs to showtime, I'm sleeping real good.

Wind gusts are howling. It is winter now, that's for damn sure. Chills in single digits easily.

Oh wow, that is a classic look

Congrats Ant!!

Weenie handbook chapter 4 page 481 section 2....the ICON is a JV model and shall only be grouped with the other JV models for purposes of forming a concensus and not blended with the big boys and/or mesos. Eta: however, as noted above when showing over 12" snow, it is allowable to be hugged and thrown in the fray if and only if we are under 108 hrs out from onset of precip

Cool to see our southern friends in DC get a lolli right over them. That run made me smile for all from DC to NYC

1 for 1....CMC setting up a 2 for 2 it appears early

GFS looks similar to icon. Not quite as intense qpf banding but slower moving tucked solution. Banding will be picked up better by the mesos anyway. I expect some crazy NAM and RGEM runs beginning tomorrow.

GFS caved and is on board

I know inside you've been on this. Your posts are evident of the reverse psychology. Keep doing whatever it is you're doing....bring this one home. P.S. nice to see the fly guys take 2 from NJ...even tho they suck still feels good

Appendix F, page xvii, paragraph 5 to be exact.

Wait, that's metfan?? I didnt even know that, I must be under a frikken rock lol.

Yeah right. Im pretty sure you've downplayed this from the get-go citing seasonal trends. Im entitled to one off-run meltdown. Its been exhausting since I began tracking this on Jan 15 (go in the obs thread....yes almost 2 weeks watching this). Im starting to suffer from model exhaustion

I do think the Euro may have done one of those overcorrections we often see when energy comes ashore. Expect it to slowly go back the other way by 12z tomorrow. May not get back to the HECS looks, but I doubt the low just escapes off of VA Beach either. ICON (I know, it sucks) is a beaut.

But does it? The UKMET went that route, the JMA is doing that, the NAVGEM is doing that, and the NAM at range is doing that. All the things we always go against and the Euro which has been rock steady jumps over to the JV models which may end up scoring a coup with the CRAS of all models unamped, South, and leading the coup.

I'm going to see myself out now lol. Trying to tell myself this is the usual overcompensating /overadjustment we sometimes see when the energy hits the West Coast and maybe it comes back N in 24 hours. Yes, windshield wipers Paul. Just odd and unsettling to see the ens means so drastically diverse.