Ralph Wiggum

3k f gen banding gonna be absurd as it continues to get in closer range

About 14" here and still snowing at 78hrs.

Still snowing mid morning Tuesday on 12k NAM

If u r taking it verbatim, sure. But the fact as the outlier it bucked the trend and stopped leading the way was huge. Big picture.

Agreed. But we stopped getting warmer and nudged colder. SE PA around i95 will mix for a period but not be primarily a mix is my feel.

Huge win on NAM. Trend halted!

Good vibes this run. Cmon NAM just buck the damn trend

Well, this is a much different setup than that storm AND we are in prime climo with better modeling, so there's that. Still think the truth lies in between the 0z GFS and 6z Euro.

Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772

It isnt alone. More concerning are many eps members hitting on a line from Binghamton NY over to Bos. That is quite a jump N. If this capture doesn't happen at just the right time we are talking 4-7" in parts of SE PA vs 1-3'

You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001.

Both are extreme solutions on either side. Truth is likely in the middle between the GFS and Euro which is usually the best way to go here. That is still 10-18" and an awesome event. Im sure there will be lollies of 24" or higher but the CMC family is the extreme outlier and likely overdone. Current thinking 7-14" for my area conservatively...mixing, late capture, or dryslotting allows for the lower end.

Just saw the 6z NAM. Warm punch, failure to capture early enough. Looks like a Binghamton NY-Boston type storm. We definitely don't want that. Hoping it is an extreme outlier but have tbh....it wouldn't be the first time the NAM sniffed out something to rain on the parade with a big storm coming. Didnt like that it has trended for 3 straight runs now too without slowing down. Still a good storm here but less than 10" while everything else under the sun is 12"+. I want to toss it but in the back of my head are the handful of times prior to big events where the NAM stood alone, we shrugged it off, and it ended up having the right idea. Of course we can't just have 100% consensus for once lol.

6z RGEM is even better for SE PA than 0Z, if that is even freaking possible. 2-3' .... im going back to sleep for a few hours now lol

Euro pretty much as expected, little bit better actually. One could argue too quick a jump NW, especially on the EPS. Could almost be viewed as a red flag but don't want to cancel anyone's parade just yet. Thus why I was happy to see the UKIE SE still. I will say we are in a great spot right now in the NW burbs. I95 and 10 miles N and W are going to mix for a period. Hopefully it isnt a PD2 type mix where a large chunk was wasted on sleet and dryslotting as the fgen via h7 banding sets up a subsidence zone to the sw of the ll moisture train. Someone is going to get robbed a bit by that feature which is normal in these capturing and occluding systems while someone just W of there usually jackpots. Robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak. Regardless, good spot to be in say a line from Coatesville to Pottstown to Quakertown. Thats your jackpot zone. Let's stop the big NW jumps we saw at 0z tho. At least halt...no more big jumps.

Wrong model I confused it with 6z euro or eps. See yall in the AM. Good vibes

DC loves the UKIE

Perfect! Held serve maybe a small bump N and W.

UKIE south and east. Bullseye other side of Del River. That works. NW ticks were getting too good tbh needed them to halt.

How much farther N and W can this tuck? Or have we reached the limit and the windshield wipers will continue?

Welcome back!

It is all about the 700mb low. Right now track and development is ideal. You shouldn't need to chase far....this looks like a hometown storm.

Para is 7-14" widespread it looks like