Ralph Wiggum

I told you trust the NAM and its trends bro. Never a doubt. My bar is still set at 12" here. Anything less is just unacceptable.

Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE.

In any event, the CMC is going to follow the rgem and should be just as crazy if not moreso. Brace yourselves.

Likely

That's what the ICON says as well. Instead of the stall near OC MD it is justnEast of Cape May. The NAM isn't alone here. The RGEM is more the outlier than anything else tbh

Neither do I. I set my bar at 1'....I feel like Ji now.

I think the NAM is onto something here. Other guidance is shifting the 500mb features N as well. They are small ticks but with 30 hrs to go those ticks will add up. Have yet to see the windshield wipers go back the other way. It was great seeing the NAM halt the trend at 12z but imo it as well as a few others and signaling this might be a NE PA, NYC type jackpot. Where r u chasing?? Curious

Kuchera maps rarely verify, stop using them. 3' is still nothing to sneeze at though.

Strongly agree. NyC should be the bullseye when all is said and done down to Monmouth. These last minute adjustments across guidance confirms.

But we've seen this before where the convection carves out a weakness in the baroclinicity and the slp subsequently follows and everyone acts surprised. Miller B....Niña.

Why are models suddenly nixing the tuck, capture, and stall idea?

12k NAM is rather mundane all things considered

Not confused at all....was more in shock that you would taunt the snow gods with such a definitive and concrete statement.

I'm braced and fully expect the NAM to botch the handoff (capture) and shoot the surface low off to the N and E quickly yielding a minor/moderate event for most.

I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day.

Yep, anything can still happen. Nobody is in the clear yet and inevitably somebody is going to get screwed. Hoping for the best for this sub, braced for the worst.

Well boys, 3rd and goal at the 4.....47 seconds to play. Game tied at 24. Brady looking on from the bench hoping the defense holds here. Teams set to go at the line of scrimmage. And here we go....its a direct snap to the running back....he scurried to the right and finds an open receiver....NO its the qb in the end zone. The Philly Special....TOUCHDOWN!!!! Unbelievable! Extra point snap, the kick is up...OH MY, no good its off the upright. Nothing ever easy in this hometown but we have the lead 30-24 with 30 seconds to play. And Brady takes the field. This proves to be one heck of an exciting finish folks. Can we hold the lead?? Buckle your seatbelts!!

Just 'cause...the HDRPS:

So with you thinking there will be a classic miller b late NE adjustment.....and the fact the bullseye on the rgem is just to our southwest.....does that mean....???

I've seen a handfull of these forecasted stallers never stall and just keep moving NE. Lets hope the capture and stall isn't a mirage. Monday AM is going to be grueling for many of us. Might need some sedatives....or a horse tranquilizer. Not sure.

The low barely moves. I mean maybe a mile or 2 in 12 hrs

12z takeaway briefly....at work. Capture looks likely. Stall likely. Longer duration sits at our BM. HECS potential increasing quickly

Slower evolution. Big end result.

ICON perfect track looks like a SE PA crusher